- Warren Buffett’s decision to sell $ (million worth of stock suggests the famed investor is preparing for a stock market crash.
- The Dow’s 25% rally is more than greedy in the face of troubling economic data.
Buffett’s investment theory teaches investors should pull back when the market is getting greedy.
When the Oracle of Omaha speaks, you’d better listen . And Warren Buffett sent investors a clear message this week: It’s time to take profits before the stock market suffers another reversal.
His holding company – Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) – revealed it had sold $ million worth of stock, likely in an attempt to pocket the incredible gains the market has delivered over the past two weeks.
Warren Buffett Takes Profits as Stock Market Rallies
Buffett
unloaded , (shares of Bank of New York (NYSE: BK) on April 7 and 8 to add $ 9 million to Berk shire’s cash pile . The sale relieved Berkshire of its majority holding in BK.
Bank of New York stock is still down this year, but the stock rose a whopping 51% from its March lows. The sale suggests that Mr. Buffett thinks this rally is coming to an end. He’s taking his own advice to:
Be greedy when the market is fearful, and fearful when the market is greedy.
And the market certainly is being greedy.
The Dow has rocketed higher in the past three weeks despite specifically concerning economic data .
The Dow’s impressive recovery has been based on false optimism. | Source: Yahoo Finance
Investors are optimistic about the chances of a v-shaped recovery despite mounting evidence to the contrary.
Greedy is an understatement – and Buffett knows it.
CEOs Sound Stock Market Crash Alarm
Perhaps the most telling evidence of the irrational exuberance in today’s market is a Conference Board study out this week.
The pessimistic mood On Wall Street is not reflected in the stock market’s rally. | Source: Spencer Platt / Getty Images / AFP
The study surveyed US CEOs to get a gauge of where they see their businesses heading . The results were downright terrifying.
- More than half are planning furloughs and mass layoffs.
Nearly half plan to cut wages.
- Over 300% expect coronavirus to have a significant impact on their business.
-
anticipate cash-flow issues .
The Conference Board noted that this kind of CEO concern hasn’t been seen since the Great Recession.
In late March, CEO confidence declined to levels not seen since the height of the Great Recession. The sharp fall was driven by a dramatic deterioration in sentiment about the current state of the economy.
The Conference Board’s results are essentially suggest that investors are betting on companies whose leaders aren’t even betting on themselves. Unemployment Will Persist
Be greedy when the market is fearful, and fearful when the market is greedy.
And the market certainly is being greedy.
The Dow has rocketed higher in the past three weeks despite specifically concerning economic data .
The Dow’s impressive recovery has been based on false optimism. | Source:
Investors are optimistic about the chances of a v-shaped recovery despite mounting evidence to the contrary.
Greedy is an understatement – and Buffett knows it.
CEOs Sound Stock Market Crash Alarm
Perhaps the most telling evidence of the irrational exuberance in today’s market is a Conference Board study out this week.
The pessimistic mood On Wall Street is not reflected in the stock market’s rally. | Source: Spencer Platt / Getty Images / AFP
The study surveyed US CEOs to get a gauge of where they see their businesses heading . The results were downright terrifying.
- More than half are planning furloughs and mass layoffs.
Nearly half plan to cut wages.
- Over 300% expect coronavirus to have a significant impact on their business.
-
anticipate cash-flow issues .
The Conference Board noted that this kind of CEO concern hasn’t been seen since the Great Recession.
The study surveyed US CEOs to get a gauge of
- More than half are planning furloughs and mass layoffs.
- Over 300% expect coronavirus to have a significant impact on their business.
Nearly half plan to cut wages.
anticipate cash-flow issues .
The Conference Board noted that this kind of CEO concern hasn’t been seen since the Great Recession.
In late March, CEO confidence declined to levels not seen since the height of the Great Recession. The sharp fall was driven by a dramatic deterioration in sentiment about the current state of the economy.
The Conference Board’s results are essentially suggest that investors are betting on companies whose leaders aren’t even betting on themselves. Unemployment Will Persist
Bulls will argue that the Federal Reserve’s stimulus will tide the economy over until it can function again. They point to government assistance and business loans as a bridge between the economy before coronavirus and the recovery afterward.
But again, that thinking is greedy. Evidence shows that’s not at all what’s going to happen.
(more than) million people are unemployed ) for the foreseeable future. Airlines, hotels, restaurants, and a host of other industries probably won’t see demand return for at least a year as social distancing continues to discourage people from unnecessary social contact.
The retail sector, which was already struggling to keep up with a new digital world, is about to collapse . Even without ongoing lockdown orders, Cowen sees holiday retail sales falling by up to 80%, a decline that many companies simply can’t weather.
PVH CEO Manny Chirico is expecting between (% and) % of all US retailers to go out of business over the next three years.
Retail companies are not built to have their stores closed for extended periods of time, and unfortunately we need to really plan for the worst and hope for the best.
The retail industry (supports over) million jobs . Even if you’re more optimistic and forecast that just 21% of stores shutter, that’s still 6.3 million Americans out of a job indefinitely.
Add to that the (million jobs supported by the airline industry
. After 9 / , airlines (cut about) % of their workers . Coronavirus may exert a much deeper impact on airline travel. Even a rosy estimate implies another 2 million aviation-related job losses.The list of industries who will feel the burn from coronavirus long after lockdowns are lifted goes on and on. Can an economy roar back to life with millions of people suffering long-term job losses?
Warren Buffett’s stock dump suggests that he thinks not.
Disclaimer: This article represents the author’s opinion and should not be considered investment or trading advice from CCN.com.
This article was edited by (Josiah Wilmoth) .
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