in

A Brexit extension could be just what Boris Johnson wants – Sky News, Sky.com

A Brexit extension could be just what Boris Johnson wants – Sky News, Sky.com


             

In politics, they say that if you’re explaining, you’re losing.

Well if what we’ve learnt today is right, Boris Johnson is going to have a hell of a lot of explaining to do.

Documents published at the Court of Session say that the prime minister will ask for an extension if no Brexit deal can be reached by 19 October.

Eagle-eyed (even sparrow- eyed) readers might spot some inconsistency. Since his decision to run for Tory leader the prime minister has employed a searing clarity: Britain will be leaving the EU on 31 October “come what may” and “do or die”, even if that means he must “die in a ditch”. No extension will be sought.

When parliament legislated in the form of the European Union (Withdrawal) (No.2) Act, more popularly known as the Benn Act, to compel the prime minister to seek an extension should he be unable to obtain a new deal , it seemed to nullify that strategy.

In response, Downing Street hinted that it might withhold royal assent from the bill, precluding it from becoming law: it didn’t. It hinted that Mr Johnson might disobey the law, before saying that he wouldn’t. Then they said there were ways around it, loopholes to exploit and, if necessary, they would take it to the courts.

Reader, let me let you into a little secret: there isn’t and they probably won’t. The truth is that for all Downing Street’s bluster, it has already, in the brief period since Mr Johnson entered Number 10, amassed quite the history of flirtation with constitutional cataclysm, only to never quite follow through.

When it did press a big red button, in the form of an unlawful and political prorogation, it backfired and insiders got badly singed. They will talk tough again, but anyone who has read the deftly drafted Benn Act knows there is no way around it. The admission in the court today was a recognition of a reality that sooner or later this prime ministerwillextend the Brexit deadline.

    

        

                                      Boris Johnson states specifically that there will be no checks at or near the border in Northern Ireland                                                                                                                                                       
‘No checks at or near the border in N Ireland ‘                

The game is up in terms of preventing an extension and the best hope – of reaching a deal before 31 October – is all but lost. Thetimescales involved are too tightand there is little incentive for the EU to acquiesce to a set of proposals it finds deeply suboptimal while there is hope of an election and a change of government.

Given such circumstances, all that matters now is the manner of our getting there. Theoretically, Mr Johnson could resign but that would involve surrendering the keys to Number 10 to either Jeremy Corbyn or another figure, and after a political lifetime of scheming to get there it seems a remote possibility.

    

        

                                      Boris Johnson and Sajid Javid                                                                                                                                                       
An awkward kiss and a missed high-five                

So why the vehemence? Why, even now, is Mr Johnson tweeting that there will be no Brexit delay? The truth is the vehemence is a political act in itself. I suspect Downing Street calculates that it is better for Mr Johnson to extend but do all he can to signal to his supporters that he doesn’t wish to. That he is being dragged to it kicking and screaming and, crucially, that those doing the dragging are, you guessed it, those wicked Remainers and the institutions they dominate: parliament, the media and the courts.

The stage will be set for an election he has clearly for so long yearned to fight: he as the people’s champion versus the “corrupt” political institutions of which he has been so long a part, but apart from which he now wishes to stand .

  

Boris Johnson is joined by his girlfriend Carrie Symonds after delivering his keynote speech

      

Image:        Boris Johnson and girlfriend Carrie Symonds after he delivered his party conference speech      

An extension would destroy any remaining excuse for Mr Corbyn and the opposition parties not to acquiesce to an election (though there might still be some resistance). After that, Number 10 strategists think they will finally be able to go to the country, argue that they were made to extend, that the cost of not doing so would have been a Corbyn government and that if Mr Johnson is given the majority he so craves there will be no more extensions and the EU will have to deal with him without one hand tied behind his back.

He knows he can afford to do this in party terms because, unlike for Theresa May, there is no Brexiter king over the water to challenge his position. He is safe internally. But with the country, it is a riskier proposition. The force he continues to employ could generate an enormous backlash. Most people don’t pay attention to daily events in politics but they do notice big moments, especially when they involve a politician’s personal integrity or when a politician has pinned all to a certain issue or principle only to resile from it later: John Major never recovered from Britain falling out of the ERM, Tony Blair from WMD, Gordon Brown from the election that never was, Nick Clegg from tuition fees, and Theresa May from the first Brexit extension. It is possible that a second extension would similarly damn Mr Johnson: a million split-screen moments in which he said one thing but did another which shatter his reputation.

But it might not happen: his base might stick with him, for fear of Remainer pretenders to his throne. And in a highly fragmented election, that base could be all he needs. He might emerge battered and bowed but a bit less battered than everybody else. In truth, he has few other options.

And so don’t be surprised if government documents say one thing, while ministers say another. I suspect it is quite literally Downing Street’s strategy. The only really damaging and surprising thing about today was that it let the cat out of the bag.

    

Brave Browser
Read More
Payeer

What do you think?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings

Iraq protests: Death toll soars after four days of protests – BBC News, BBC News

Iraq protests: Death toll soars after four days of protests – BBC News, BBC News

Greetings card company hits back at Banksy in trademark row – Sky News, Sky.com

Greetings card company hits back at Banksy in trademark row – Sky News, Sky.com