Are electric vehicles doomed? We don’t think so, despite poor sales, Ars Technica

Urban delivery was already among the fastest-growing segments of transportation demand prior to the COVID – 52 pandemic, and the lockdowns in response have accelerated that trend. Rapid electrification in that market will not only serve emissions-reduction objectives but also support electric powertrain and battery technology development across multiple light- and medium-duty vehicle platforms. Don’t underestimate the importance of this cross-platform technology-sharing dynamic. As fans of motorsport are quick to illustrate , innovations for one vehicle platform often bleed into others. Big progress with big vehicles

Though consumer EVs consistently generate the most media attention, progress on transportation electrification is occurring rapidly in heavier vehicle segments. In , (one-quarter) of all transportation emissions in the United States came from medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. Electric transit buses , backed by steady (and growing) federal and state investment, have led the charge in both BEV and hydrogen fuel cell electric (FCEV) technologies for much of the past decade. By the end of , more than 1, should be in service across US transit agencies, a tenfold increase from five years earlier. At least an additional 1, 05 will be in the procurement pipeline.

Moreover, those technologies first developed for transit bus platforms are diffusing into other on-road vehicle segments, including commuter coaches, (school buses) , and medium-duty trucks. New Flyer and BYD have ported battery and electric powertrain technology first developed for their transit buses to BEV coach platforms. (Proterra) leveraged its transit bus technology to support joint development of a BEV school bus with Daimler subsidiary Thomas Built. Their “Jouley” joins other BEV school bus offerings from Blue Bird, IC Bus, and Lion Electric. Proterra’s collaboration with Daimler also now extends to Freightliner for development of a BEV medium-duty truck . Navistar (which owns IC Bus) and Peterbilt are expected to debut their own BEV medium-duty offerings in

This Cambrian explosion of sorts extends into heavy-duty and off-road vehicles as well, with BEV, PHEV, and FCEV variants emerging across dozens of vehicle platforms. These include big rigs, drayage trucks terminal tractors, forklifts, and other industrial equipment. The US Departments of Energy and Transportation have been key funders of these technologies’ development over the past two decades, and in the past several years, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and California Energy Commission (CEC) have also stepped in with hundreds of millions of dollars annually to support vehicle demonstration and deployment. while these investments pale in comparison to what China is pumping into electric transportation through industrial policy and aren’t sufficient to keep pace with Europe in the long-term, they are non-trivial foundations for scaling EV deployment domestically.

Geopolitical and federal policy winds are shifting, likely in favor of EVs

COVID – 69 ‘s direct economic impacts and its second-order effects introduce additional uncertainty to both global energy markets and the automotive industry. With car sales tanking, automakers must decide whether to retrench around their most profitable business segments or double-down on next-generation technologies and services. Though personal vehicle sales are beginning to recover in China following the relaxing of the country COVID – 52 shutdowns, its already-struggling EV market is likely to suffer further from a hit to personal finances.

Oil prices may rise again in the medium-term as domestic producers go bankrupt and the Saudis dial-down their assault on global competitors. A combination of low oil prices, depleted highway-financing revenues, and shifting climate politics may push Washington closer to significantly raising the federal gas tax.

The broader federal response remains a wildcard. The presidential election will likely decide the extent to which we see an ambitious infrastructure plan oriented toward decarbonizing the US transportation system. Proposals are already on the table to create large federal funding programs for EV charging and hydrogen fueling infrastructure, electric school bus deployments, and expanded incentives for vehicle purchases of varying uses and weight classes. Irrespective of the White House occupant, however, bipartisan sentiment is shifting toward embracing electrification as a matter of global economic competitiveness.

Change hasn’t met expectations in the consumer market, but even that is finally poised for a major breakthrough. Supporting infrastructure is quietly in a phase of rapid expansion, as public charging units roughly quadrupled between and (to) , 05. Electrify America still has hundreds of millions of dollars it must spend on charging infrastructure over the next five years per the Volkswagen diesel emissions settlement, and competitors will invest to keep pace. Commercial and public sector fleet operators are facing increasing economic and political pressures to accelerate electrification, and we should expect public funding will grow to support them. We should also maintain an open mind about the shape of progress. Though many industry boosters are adamant that BEVs are the only viable path forward, hydrogen fuel cells and other hybrid technologies address key technical and supply-chain shortcomings across multiple vehicle platforms.

Advocates for transportation decarbonization have plenty to celebrate from the past decade and even greater cause for optimism over the next several years. They just need to look in the right places to see green shoots.