Lisa O’Carroll
The DUP could be willing to shift its red lines on Brexit if it had a legally binding “Stormont lock ”Which would give the Northern Ireland assembly a say on alignment with EU rules, sources say.
Arlene Foster, the party leader, has dismissed reports that the party had said it would accept Northern Ireland abiding by someEuropean Unionrules after Brexit in a deal to replace the Irish backstop as “nonsense”.
But sources do not rule out the possibility of a deal, if were it backed up by a legally binding guarantee for the DUP. They point to paragraph 50 of the December 2017 joint report saying it is the “glue” that could hold all sides together.
At issue is the importance of keeping the Irish border invisible. In the backstop arrangement outlined in Theresa May’s withdrawal deal, Northern Ireland would remain in regulatory alignment with the republic until a wider trade deal was struck which included solutions for the frontier.
Paragraph 50 of the joint report was inserted at the last minute after May ceded to demands by the DUP to prevent checks down the Irish sea.
It says that in the absence of a (Brexit) deal, “no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom” unless in line with the 1998 peace deal, Stormont “agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland”.
“Paragraph 50 is the glue that will hold any deal together that will get approval from the DUP, ”said one source.
The DUP dismissed the Stormont lock as “cosmetic and meaningless” when it was first proposed in January, because it was not legally binding.
The EU has said it is opposed to giving Stormont a legally binding veto, but there is widespread feeling that a space has opened up to crash-test the DUP’s red lines and this is why reports are emerging about the party potentially softening its stance.
Earlier this week the new EU trade commissioner, Phil Hogan, indicated there would be room for manoeuvre.
A long-standing ally of Leo Varadkar he told RTE that if “there are constitutional issues that are already in the withdrawal agreement that might have to be improved upon if this is a request that’s made. Of course we can look at it. ”
Hogan also said he detected a shift in Johnson’s position also:“ I also note that the British prime minister has moved away from his position… where he’s now prepared to look at divergence of certain rules and regulations on the island of Ireland vis-a-vis the United Kingdom.
“So I think there’s movement happening on both sides. Let’s see over the next four weeks how we can advance those intensive negotiations to reach an agreement. ”
Here’s what’s happened so far today:
- Boris Johnson will head to Luxembourg on Monday to meet Jean-Claude Juncker for the first time in an attempt to break the Brexit impasse.The prime minister will hold his first face-to-face talks at a “working lunch” hosted by Juncker.
- The Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, has said the “gap is very wide” between the EU and the UK on Brexit.The taoiseach said he got the impression that Johnson was serious about a deal following their meeting on Monday in Dublin but what the UK was talking about “falls very far short” of what is required for a deal .
- The DUP has played down a report that it is softening its line on a Northern Ireland only backstop.Its leader Arlene Foster and its Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson both described as “nonsense” a Times story claiming the DUP was dropping its objection to a border in the Irish sea.
- Johnson is continuing his unofficial election campaign with another trip to Labor’s northern heartlands.In a speech in Rotherham he is expected to promise northern communities “control over the things that matter to them ”, and a new Northern Powerhouse growth body to drive the region’s economy.
- Support for Welsh independence will soar if it meant that Wales could remain in the EU, a new poll suggests.According to the YouGov poll commissioned by Plaid Cymru, 41% of those who expressed a preference would back independence if it led to Wales remaining in the EU.
- The Brexit party has taken control of Hartlepool borough council after forming a pact with the Conservatives overnight, dealing a significant blow to Labor in its north-east heartlands.The party announced it had taken control of the local authority at a council meeting on Thursday night , where it revealed that nine councillors had joined the party and formed a pact with the council’s three Conservatives.
- The senior Conservative MP, Bernard Jenkin, has accused John Bercow of wielding a “majoritarian dictatorship” against Brexit.He called for the Speaker’s powers to be curtailed.
- The election of the new Speaker will take place on Monday 4 November.The current Speaker John Bercow, who has held the office since 2009, will take the chair for a final time on Thursday 31 October.
The Telegraph’s James Crisp has some puzzled Brussels reaction to that Johnson / Juncker meeting.
Daniel Boffey
The prime minister will hold his first face-to-face talks at a lunch hosted by Juncker in the European commission president’s home country, where he was prime minister for 18 Years.
Johnson will then hold talks with the current prime minister ofLuxembourg, Xavier Bettel.
EU sources suggested Johnson had sought to avoid a meeting in Brussels for fear of giving the impression that the new prime minister was begging for concessions. A European commission spokeswoman said Juncker would meet Johnson for a “working lunch”.
The spokeswoman said the location had been chosen by “common accord” and that it would allow Juncker the benefit of going straight from the talks to Strasbourg, where the European parliament is sitting next week. She declined to disclose details about the precise location of the meeting. “You can imagine it is somewhere where they serve food”, the spokeswoman said.
The new communications team in Downing Street is understood to believe that Theresa May undermined herself in the public eye by making dashes to Brussels to seek movement in the negotiation.
Johnson had hinted at plans for further meetings with EU leaders next week.
His first visits in August to Berlin and Paris to meet the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, were widely seen as a success.
The election of the new Speaker of the House of Commons will take place on Monday 4 November, the House of Commons has announced, PA reports.
The current SpeakerJohn Bercow, who has held the office since June 22 2009, will take the chair for a final time on Thursday (October.
Bercow will formally resign as an MP on Monday 4 November. The election of a new Speaker will be presided over by Father of the House, Conservative MP Ken Clarke.
Nominations of candidates must be submitted between 9. 30 am and 10 . 30 am on Monday November 4, with the House proceeding immediately to t he election when business begins at 2. 30 PM.
Candidates will each address MPs in an order selected by ballot, before MPs vote in secret. Successive ballots will be held until either a candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, or only one candidate remains. The successful candidate – who will then become the Speaker-elect, will attend the Lords Commissioners in the House of Lords to receive Royal Approbation.
Updated (at 6.) am EDT
Johnson is due to hold a “working lunch” with Juncker in Luxembourg on Monday, according to the European Commission.
A spokeswoman said: “President Juncker will hold a working lunch with the Prime Minister of the United KingdomBoris Johnson. This working lunch will take place in Luxembourg. ”
AFP’s Danny Kemp reminds us that Juncker’s working lunches can also be liquid lunches.
Updated
Johnson to meet Juncker on Monday
Varadkar: ‘very wide gap between EU and UK on Brexit’
Lisa O’Carroll
The Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, has said the “gap is very wide” between the EU and the UK onBrexit.
The taoiseach said he got the impression thatBoris Johnsonwas serious about a deal following their meeting on Monday in Dublin but what the UK was talking about “Falls very far short” of what is required for a deal.
Asked whether he trusted Johnson he said: “I do, I believe when he says he wants a deal on Brexit, he is acting in good faith and our teams are in contact and we are exploring what is possible.
“The gap is very wide but we will fight for and work for no no deal until the last moment, but not at any cost, and at the same time we are preparing the country for no deal if we end up in that scenario, ”he said.
He was speaking at the Fine Gael annual think-in in Cork on Friday.
Varadkar told RTE that while some customs checks could be required close to the border in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the government had yet to identify locations.
Updated (at 6.) am EDT
Sammy Wilson has repeated his leader, Arlene Foster’s line that the Times story about the DUP softening its line on an Northern Ireland only backstop is “nonsense”.
Updated
The odds of a no-deal exit have increased over the last week despite parliament’s determination to prevent such an outcome, according to the Eurasia group thinktank.
Its boss Mujtaba walks us through what the group reckons is likely to happen over the next few weeks.
Mujtaba Rahman(@ Mij_Europe)
1) Labor minority; 2) Tory minority or 3) deadlock (& probs another election). Each of these also has multiple permutations & complications. For eg even if Labor has fewer MPs than Tories, it may have a better chance of forming a Govt because of its potential partners 5 /
(September) , 2019
Mujtaba Rahman(@ Mij_Europe)
Bottom line (after much initial work with pollsters 3000 words of analysis?) Rather than clarify, election could reinforce# Brexituncertainty. Poss pol outcomes suggest lots options will remain on table: no deal; Canada; CU / amended version of May’s deal; 2nd ref; Remain ENDS
(September) , 2019
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