A lot has happened in politics in the last 24 hours.
So let’s cut through the jargon and get to the heart of what actually matters.
WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY, THEN?
Basically the chances of a no-deal Brexit next month shrank.
A draft law to try and avoid the scenario wasrushed through the House of Commonsin a single day by MPs who took control of the parliamentary agenda.
Then Boris Johnson said it killed any chance of him getting a better deal from the EU.
So he tried to jump the gun by winning MPs’ support for an early general election, butthey didn’tbecause they want the no-deal bill to become law first.
HANG ON, BUT THE OPPOSITION HAVE BEEN CALLING FOR AN ELECTION FOR TWO YEARS.
That’s true – but they don’t trust the PM.
They think he will ignore their opposition to no-deal and if he wins the election then he will simply change the law with his new-found power in parliament. )
So it’s likely that when the legislation passes they will back an election.
That could come on the PM’s date of choice – Tuesday 15 October – or maybe later in the winter.
AND THERESA MAY’S BREXIT DEAL COLD BE VOTED ON AGAIN?
It’s the version of her deal that never actually got put to a vote in parliament, having been tweaked after compromise talks with the opposition parties to include guarantees on things like workers’ rights.
HOW DID THAT HAPPEN?
It seemed to shock most people.
Basically the MPs who are normally nominated to count the votes of colleagues voting for or against things in parliament didn’t turn up to count the votes of people trying to vote against the proposal.
So it passed by default – whether by accident or design remains to be seen.
SO NOW WHAT?
The bill to try and avoid no-deal still needs to complete its journey through parliament to become law .
Its journey through The House of Lords will be completed by 5pm on Friday.
That means a general election is still a little while off.
But now the government has no majority, given it expelled 21 Tory rebels for backing the anti-no-deal law, it’s not clear how long it can last.
There areonly four ways to get a general election, so one of these will have to be tried.
As one Tory remarked to Sky News: “We’re stuck and basically being held in government by the opposition and the MPs we just kicked out. “
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