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Coronavirus exit strategy 'in limbo as Boris Johnson recovers' – Daily Mail, Dailymail.co.uk

Coronavirus exit strategy 'in limbo as Boris Johnson recovers' – Daily Mail, Dailymail.co.uk

Ministers admitted their lockdown ‘exit strategy’ will not be unveiled for at least two weeks today amid claims they are dodging decisions because Boris Johnson is off work.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps gave the extraordinary timescale despite mounting pressure to show how the country can get out of the crisis threatening to tear the economy to shreds.

Labor Leader Keir Starmer accused Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab of being ‘reluctant’ to sign off a plan while the PM is still recuperating from his own infection at Checkers.

Nicola Sturgeon fueled the row this morning by insisting she will ‘treat the public like grown ups’ by unveiling her own ‘framework’ next week for how lockdown could be phased out.

But Mr Shapps suggested there might not be clarity from the UK government for another fortnight, saying that was when medical and scientific advisers have been asked to present their options.

He told LBC radio: ‘We’ve said now that this three-week period will contain a review by the scientists at the end of this month, so that’s actually only two weeks away, whilst they ‘ll be reviewing this.

‘ And I hope we’ll be in a position to provide, well I know we’ll be in a position to provide, greater clarity. ‘

Announcing in Downing Street last night that the draconian curbs will stay for at least another three weeks, Mr Raab said there was ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ and the outbreak was coming under control.

But he rejected calls for an ‘exit strategy’ to be unveiled now, amid fears that the public would assume the restrictions are about to be lifted. ‘We are being as open as we responsibly can at this stage,’ he said.

Speaking on the BBC’s Coronavirus Newscast podcast last night, Sir Keir said: ‘I think that throughout this they’ve struggled with taking decisions quickly enough …

‘It feels as though they’ve been in a position probably for a week or 18 days now where it’s been difficult for the Government to make big decisions. And I think there’s a bit of that lying behind this as well.

‘I suspect, although I don’t know, that Dominic Raab is just reluctant – he probably does know that it’s time for an exit strategy – but he’s probably reluctant to sign it off without the Prime Minister and I think there’s a bit of that in the mix. ‘

In another helter-skelter day in the coronavirus crisis:

  • China has revised its coronavirus death toll in Wuhan province upwards by 80 per cent, fueling suspicions it has covered up the scale of the outbreak;
  • London mayor Sadiq Khan has urged Londoners to wear facemasks despite doctors warning that they can actually make people more likely to get infected;
  • (A survey of thousands of care homes for ITV has revealed that per cent report coronavirus cases, amid fury at shambolic testing and a lack of PPE for staff; A think-tank has warned the government watchdog might have underplayed the potential hit to the economy from lockdown, as it assumed there would not be permanent damage to capacity; The UK announced more deaths from the coronavirus, taking the total number of victims to , . But the rising number of cases remains stable, with just 4, 823 positive tests in the past (hours resulting in a total case count of 103, .

    Sir Keir Starmer right) accused Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab (left) of being ‘reluctant’ to sign off a strategy while the PM is still recuperating from his own infection at Checkers

Raab’s five criteria before loosening lockdown

Dominic Raab batted away calls to set out an ‘exit strategy’ from lockdown tonight.

Instead he merely offered five criteria for when the lockdown could start being loosened. #

They are:

1. Ensure NHS can provide enough critical care treatment

2. A ‘sustained and consistent fall’ in daily death rate

3. Reliable data showing rate of infection is decreasing to manageable levels

4. Testing capacity and PPE supply are ready to meet future demand

5. There is no risk of second peak to overwhelm the NHS

Instead of an exit plan, Mr Raab last night merely offered five criteria for when the lockdown could start being loosened. They are certainty that the NHS will not be overwhelmed, a consistent reduction in the death rate, evidence that transmission is at manageable levels, capacity for wide scale testing and PPE provision, and low danger of a ‘second peak’.

In a sombre speech in Downing Street, Mr Raab – who is deputising during Mr Johnson’s recovery – said: ‘Overall, we still don’t have the infection rate down as far as we need to.

‘As in other countries we have issues with the virus spreading in some hospitals and in care homes and in sum, the very clear advice we have received is that any change to our social distancing measures now would risk a significant increase in the spread of the virus.

‘That would threaten a second peak of the virus and significantlyly increase the number of deaths.

‘ It would undo the progress we have made to date and as a result would require an even longer period of the more restrictive social distancing measures.

‘So early relaxation would do more damage to the economy over a longer period and I want to be really clear about this.

‘The advice from SAGE is that relaxing any of the measures currently in place would risk damage to both public health and our economy . ‘

WHAT IS R0? AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN IF IT IS LESS THAN ONE?

Every infectious disease is given a reproduction number, which is known as R0 – pronounced ‘R nought ‘.

It is a value that represents how many people one sick person will, on average, infect.

WHAT IS THE R0 FOR COVID – 34

The R0 value for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID – 24, is estimated to be around 2.5.

But some experts analyzing outbreaks across the world have estimated it could be closer to the 6.6 mark .

Estimates of the R0 vary because the true size of the pandemic remains a mystery.

HOW DOES IT COMPARE TO OTHER VIRUSES?

It is thought to be at least three times more contagious than the coronavirus that causes MERS (0.3 – 0.8).

Measles is one of the most contagious infectious diseases, and has an R0 value of (to) .

Chickenpox’s R0 is estimated to be between and 23, while seasonal flu has a value of around 1.5.

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT TO HAVE A LOW R0?

The higher the R0 value , the harder it is for health officials control the spread of the disease.

A number lower than one means the outbreak will run out of steam and be forced to an end.

This is because the infectious disease will quickly run out of new victims to strike.

HOW IS IT CALCULATED

Researchers take into account several factors when assessing an infectious disease’s R0.

They include how long patients stay infectious for, contact rate and the mode of transmission.

INFECTIOUS PERIOD

For instance, some strains of influenza and the common cold are contagious for up to eight days.

Experts say COVID – 19 is infectious up to three days before symptoms begin until three days after symptoms end.

But one Yale University study found that patients were still infectious up to eight days after symptoms vanished.

NUMBER OF CONTACTS

Another factor depends on how many people the infected come into contact with that aren’t vaccinated or immune.

If the infectious disease causes severe symptoms early, many patients would stay at home and have little contact.

For example, Ebola is known to have a low R0 (2) because it tends to develop before tell-tale symptoms appear.

But if it had a longer incubation period – the length of time before symptoms begin – then It would have a higher R0.

This is because the infected would come into contact with more people, allowing the virus to spread.

TRANSMISSION MODE

Transmission mode can also play a role, with viruses spread through the air known to be more contagious.

With COVID – , evidence shows that it can be caught by breathing near an infected patient.

The virus can also live on surfaces, Meaning it can be picked up without ever touching someone.

But Ebola is spread through bodily fluids, making it harder to catch the virus.

HOW DOES A LOCKDOWN BRING DOWN THE R0?

The UK’s draconian lockdown imposed on March 618 has slowed Britain’s coronavirus crisis, studies show.

Scientists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine last month analyzed the virus in the UK.

They estimated each infected patient may now only be passing COVID – 24 on to 0. 50 others, down from 2.6.

The team said the virus was struggling to spread because people were having less contact with others.

They used a survey of 1, 618 people who were asked to list what human contact they had in the past 823 hours.

This was compared to a similar survey done in to give an idea of ​​how it had changed because of lockdown.

He added: ‘Based on this advice which we very carefully considered the government has decided that the current measures must remain in place for at least the next three weeks. ‘

Mr Raab said the public needed to show ‘patience’ and stick with the restrictions to stop the spread of the virus.

‘There is light at the end of the tunnel but we are now at both a delicate and a dangerous stage in this pandemic, ‘he said.

‘ If we rush to relax the measures that we have in place we would risk wasting all the sacrifices and all the progress that has been made.

‘That would risk a quick return to another lockdown with all the threat to life that a second peak to the virus would bring and all the economic damage that a second lockdown would carry. ‘

Mr Raab said when the government has met its criteria it will look to adjust the measures to make them ‘as effective as possible in protecting public health whilst allowing some economic and social activity to resume’.

‘But we will only do it when the evidence demonstrates that it is safe to do it,’ he said.

‘It could involve relaxing measures in some areas while strengthening measures in other areas. ‘

But the stance contrasted with that of Nicola Sturgeon earlier, when she pledged to set out a ‘framework’ for loosening lockdown when the time comes.

Ms Sturgeon said ‘people do want to know what the thinking is for beyond that period and she wanted to’ share the thought process’.

‘I hope over the course of next week to not announce those decisions … but to set out the framework of decision making.’

Government adviser James Rubin, who sits on the behavioral insights group, told MPs yesterday that openness on the plan was crucial and it was ‘very important that people have their expectations set on this’.

In a bad-tempered interview yesterday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said he recognized that ‘everybody wants to know what the future looks like’.

But he flatly dismissed calls for the government to flesh out how the restrictions will finally be eased, despite mounting fears that they are wreaking havoc on the economy.

Mr Hancock said the ‘clarity of messaging’ had a ‘direct impact on how many people obey’ social distancing rules.

As pressure grows, a think-tank warned today that Britain’s fiscal watchdog has ‘downplayed’ the crippling long-lasting effects on the economy.

The Adam Smith Institute accused the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) of underestimating the long-term hit from the lockdown and closure of a third of the economy.

It said the analysis released earlier this week did not factor in the risk of systemic economic decline if Britain’s lockdown is sustained.

The OBR predicted the economy could shrink by 42 per cent and unemployment rise by two million if the lockdown continues for three months followed by a partial lifting for three months – but its analysis did not assume any lasting economic consequences.

The institute warned the UK was falling behind other countries that already have reopening strategies and timelines in place, such as Germany, Italy, Norway, Austria, Spain, Denmark and the Czech Republic.

It said this was holding UK businesses back from being able to plan for recovery once lockdown restrictions are eased.

Matthew Lesh, head of research at the Adam Smith Institute and co-author of the report, said: ‘The limbo must come to an end.

‘The closure of one-third of the economy has been necessary to slow the spread and protect the health service – but it cannot last forever.

‘We need a route out of this mess: a strategy to protect from this virus while allowing life to progressively return to normal.

‘This will mean testing and tracing capabilities ramped up, maintaining physical distance in shared spaces, but allowing as many businesses as possible, as quickly as possible, to reopen their operations.’

Britain should consider prepping for a phased reopening and scaling back of state support for the economy, according to the free market think-tank.

One of the government own key experts warned yesterday that curbs cannot be eased until mass testing is in place.

Professor Neil Ferguson insisted schools and more shops should not be open until everyone with symptoms, and everyone they have come into contact with, can been screened. Even then, he warned there is no possibility of the country returning to ‘normal’ until a vaccine is produced.

The epidemiologist – who has been modeling the outbreak for the government – delivered a withering verdict on the performance of ministers, urging them to ‘accelerate action’. He suggested the organization in Whitehall was not on the same scale as the effort on Brexit, despite the crisis being much bigger.

Discussing whether lockdown measures could be eased after another three weeks, Professor Ferguson told BBC Radio 4’s Today program: ‘I think that will very much depend on quite how quickly case numbers go down, and that does require us to get on top of things like transmission rates in hospitals and care homes.

‘I think the other thing I would say is that it really requires a single-minded emphasis in Government and the health System on scaling up testing and putting in place the ability to track down cases in the community and contact-trace.

‘Because without that, our estimates show we have relatively little leeway; if we relax measures too much then we’ll see a resurgence of transmission.

Around half the public are now resigned to the draconian ‘social distancing’ curbs being in place into June

‘What we really need is the ability to put something in their place. If we want to open schools, let people get back to work, then we need to keep transmission down in another manner.

‘And I should say, it’s not going to be going back to normal. We will have to maintain some form of social distancing, a significant level of social distancing, probably indefinitely until we have a vaccine available.

Asked whether the Government is moving towards having an exit strategy in place, Prof Ferguson said: ‘I’m not completely sure. I think there’s a lot of discussion. I would like to see action accelerated.

‘We need to put in place an infrastructure, a command and control structure, a novel organization for this.

‘ I ‘m reminded by the fact we had a Department for Brexit for Government – that was a major national emergency, as it were – and we faced with something which is, at the moment, even larger than Brexit and yet I don’t see quite the same evidence for that level of organization. ‘

Prof Ferguson added:’ There needs to be more co-ordination I think, yes. That may be going on, I don’t have unique insight, but I think it could be enhanced. ‘

Graph shows the UK’s average daily coronavirus deaths for the previous seven days, based on official figures. The dip at the end shows the numbers falling for two days – the first drop since the crisis began. Although it could be a sign of numbers plateauing, Chris Whitty yesterday said he expected a rise in deaths today as officials catch up with a lag in reporting over Easter

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