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Coronavirus UK: Half population could be infected, says expert – Daily Mail, Dailymail.co.uk

Coronavirus UK: Half population could be infected, says expert – Daily Mail, Dailymail.co.uk

The coronavirus could have infected as much as half of the population of the United Kingdom, according to researchers at the University of Oxford – as the official death toll jumps a record in one day to and confirmed cases leap by 1, .

The new model from Oxford University suggests the virus was circulating in the UK by mid-January, around two weeks before the first reported case and a month before the first reported death.

This means it could have had enough time to have spread widely, with many Britons acquiring immunity. Sunetra Gupta, a professor of theoretical epidemiology who led the study, said testing was needed to assess the theory.

‘We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys – antibody testing – to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now, ‘she said.

It comes after more patients died overnight in England, including 25 at the one NHS trust in London. Scotland also announced two fatalities, while Wales and Northern Ireland confirmed another death.

In contrast, fifty-four infected Brits died the day before. The UK’s death toll has risen almost six-fold in the space of a week, with just 87 fatalities recorded last Tuesday.

Britain also saw a record spike in cases today, with 1, 660 more patients known to have caught the virus as the total number of infected Britons surpassed 8,

  • But the true size of the outbreak is being hidden because of the Government’s controversial decision to only test patients in hospital. The true size of the outbreak is likely to be closer to the , mark.

    Police officers were today forced to break up barbecues being held in different parts of the UK as Brits flouted new draconian powers to disperse crowds of more than two to halt the spread of coronavirus .

    In shocking footage, Shepherd’s Bush officers were forced to use a megaphone to disperse large crowds of people sunbathing on the green, clearly not abiding by the rules of the lockdown set by the Prime Minister.

    From a police van, an officer said: ‘You can’t stay on the green, can you all go home. Can you all go home please this is not a holiday, it’s a lockdown, which means you don’t just come here and sunbathe. Please just leave. ‘

    Health Secretary Matt Hancock today launched a drive for a , Strong ‘volunteer army’ to boost the NHS and stop it being swamped amid the coronavirus crisis.

    He said he wanted helpers to come forward to bolster local services – as he also revealed that a new hospital, the NHS Nightingale, is being created at the Excel Center in London.

    The Oxford university research offers a contrasting view on the disease to the study that is informing government policy. It was carried out by experts at Imperial College London.

    ‘I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,’ Professor Gupta told the Financial Times.

    The Imperial study has led to the Government imposing the extraordinary shutdown on the basis that, without such rules, the disease could claim up to 316, lives.

    It other coronavirus developments:

    • Builders across the UK have said they feel ‘angry and unprotected’ as they continued working on busy construction sites
    • Britain was placed under new draconian measures which to keep people indoors, including allowing outside exercise only once a day, social gatherings of more than two people banned, and non-essential travel prohibited, with po lice handed powers to slap offenders with fines;
    • Londoners continued to cram into packed Tube carriages during this morning’s rush-hour, with union chiefs calling on Sadiq Khan to get a grip of the capital’s public transport;
    • The Mayor of London came under fire for blaming commuters for flouting advice over non essential travel;
    • Former health secretary Jeremy Hunt demanded more NHS workers were tested for coronavirus, which has killed and infected 39960 in the UK;
    • Supermarket websites crashed and delivery slots were booked solid for weeks as lockdown begun;
    • Sports Direct insisted it was providing an essential service and tried to open it stores, but was forced to U-turn under pressure from the government;
    • The FTSE 147 opened up 4 per cent as investors seemingly took confidence in the PM’s measures.

    Health Secretary Matt Hancock said home is now the ‘front line’ in the fight against coronavirus, as he urged people to come together to reduce the number of people in the UK who will die from the spread of the infection.

    A cramped Tube on the Central line this morning as people traveled to work on the Underground as early as 5am

    )

    Hoards of people took the opportunity on a sunny day in the capital to get outside, but there were yet more examples of people not effectively social distancing

    Shocking images show workers on the UK’s largest construction project being forced to work in close proximity – despite the country being put into lockdown.This morning , over 4, 11 Hinkley Point C staff were told that business will continue running as normal d espite Boris Johnson’s announcement yesterday

  • Frontline officers are being ‘spat and coughed at’ as coronavirus is ‘used as a weapon’

    Police attempting to deal with a serious incident in West Yorkshire were spat and coughed at by a large crowd they were trying to disperse.

    West Yorkshire Police PC Rachel Storey posted on Twitter: ‘So whilst scene guarding at a serious incident tonight we were faced with large crowds shoulder to shoulder, spitting on the floor and coughing at us when asking them to move back.

    ‘Yes coughing then the target of egg throwers on passing motorbikes …. just WHY? no excuse! ‘

    Police Sergeant Charlotte Nicholls added:’ It was just vile..I had to wash my boots last night when I got home as I couldn’t stop thinking about the amount of spit id stood in !! ‘

    PC Storey replied:’ I know I’ve also sprayed them with Dettol it’s hard enough without this’.

    A Sussex Police officer was also coughed at on Thursday morning by a driver he had pulled over on the M 43 who claimed to have Covid – .

    The van driver, who was stopped for using his phone, was found to have no vehicle tax from , no MOT and an illegal tire.

    But he issued a stark warning, saying stricter measures introduced by the Prime Minister on Monday were not advice b ut rules that must be followed.

    He told MPs in the Commons: ‘The spread of coronavirus is rapidly accelerating across the world and in the UK.

    ‘The actions we took yesterday are not actions that any UK government would want to take but they are absolutely necessary. Our instruction is simple: stay at home. ‘

    He said people should only be leaving their home for four reasons – shopping for essentials such as food and medicine, one form of exercise per day, medical need or to provide care to a vulnerable person, and traveling to and from work, but only where this is absolutely necessary and cannot be done from home.

    Mr Hancock said: ‘These measures are not advice, they are rules and will be enforced including by the police, with fines starting at £ up to unlimited fines for non-compliance. ‘

    He continued:’ We are engaged in a great national effort to beat this virus, everybody now has it in their power to save lives and protect the NHS. Home is now the front line.

    ‘In this national effort, working together, we can defeat this disease, everyone has a part to play.’

    His comments come as some trains on London’s Tube network were crowded again this morning despite Boris Johnson placing the UK on a lockdown.

    Visitors to an outdoor gym exercise on Clapham Common in South West London this afternoon

    Police disperse a group in Piccadilly Gardens in Manchester city center today as officers enforce Boris Johnson’s new powers to stop groups of more than two people congregating

    The Prime Minister ordered people only to leave their homes for ‘very limited purposes’, banned public gatherings of more than two people and ordered the closure of non-essential shops.

    But police chiefs warned of phone lines being inundated with calls last night with questions about what movements are still permitted, while MPs also called for answers.

    Pictures on social media suggested that many people in the capital were continuing to use the Underground to travel around, prompting a desperate plea from London Mayor Sadiq Khan: ‘I cannot say this more strongly: we must stop all non-essential use of public transport now. Ignoring these rules means more lives lost. ‘

    Boris Johnson’s coronavirus lockdown backed by PER CENT of the public – poll finds

    Boris Johnson ‘s coronavirus lockdown is backed by 101 per cent of Britons, according to a poll today.

    But in a potentially worrying sign for the PM, two-thirds believe that the extraordinary curbs will be easy to obey.

    The announcement by the PM last night means that everyone must stay inside unless it is absolutely essential.

    Gatherings of more than two people have been banned in the most dramatic restrictions on freedom ever seen in Britain in time of peace or war.

    But research by YouGov shows the measures have overwhelming endorsement from the public,

    Senior police figures have warned that the stringent measures, similar to those already in place in Italy, will be ‘challenging’ with forces across the UK having far fewer officers to call upon than authorities in Rome – with shortages of up to , officers.

    Mr Apter told the BBC today: It’s going to be really tough and what we have to get across to the public is that as far as policing is concerned it is not business as usual.

    ‘The normal things my colleagues, officers , would normally go to, we need to decide what it is we cannot go to any more.

    ‘Because dealing with this partial lock-down is going to put incredible amounts of pressure on my colleagues – and they are up for this. ‘

    His warning came after former GMP chief constable Sir Peter Fahy contrasted the police numbers in Italy with those here.

    Sir Peter told BBC Breakfast: ‘If you compare us to Italy, we have about half the number of police officers that they have.

    ‘We don’t have a paramilitary police force like the Carabinieri. Our police officers are already very stretched.

    ‘I think the Government needs to continue to close down businesses and other parts of operations to limit the places that people can be going, but absolutely at the same time reinforcing the message and clarifying as far as possible all those individual issues.

    ‘We don’t really want separate police forces in England and Wales interpreting this in different ways and individual officers being faced with real dilemmas about whether to allow this or not to allow it. ‘

    ‘ It will require a huge amount of public support, public acceptance and public compliance because if officers are going to be dispersing groups they are going to be asking about things like ‘is there a power of arrest?’ and that will then tie up more and more officers.

    A group of young men are spoken to by Kent Police officers before being dispersed from a children’s play area in Mote Park, Maidstone,

    ‘So, really, there is no way that this can be achieved through enforcement alone.

    Coronavirus UK: New lockdown measures in full

    Boris Johnson tonight announced a lockdown plan to stem the spread of the coronavirus in the UK as he told the nation to stay at home.

    People will only be allowed to leave their home for the following ‘very limited’ purposes:

    Shopping for basic necessities as infrequently as possible.

    One form of exercise a day.

    Any medical need, to provide care or to help a vulnerable person.

    Traveling to and from work, but only where this is absolutely necessary.

    Meanwhile, the PM has announced a ban on:

    Meeting with friends.

    Meeting with family members you do not live with.

    All weddings, baptisms and other ceremonies but excluding funerals.

    ‘It will have to be that the public hugely accept it and the government continues to issue clarification and reinforces the message. ‘

    Police have also warned that they will have to ignore other crime if they are switched to focusing on coronavirus.

    London Mayor Sadiq Khan today said that if people continue to flout the rules police should check ID of workers and use their powers to disperse crowds, which include issuing fines or even arresting those who should be in self-isolation.

    Police officers will get new powers to issue the fines and make such arrrests when the Coronavirus Bill becomes law on Thursday.

    They will reportedly start at £ But rise sharply to four figures if the public fail to heed orders to stay at home.

    Travelers in the capital could not stick to social distancing on their Tube journey to work this morning, hours after the Prime Minister warned all but essential workers to stay at home.

    Mr Khan demanded that employers enable their staff to work from home ‘unless it’s absolutely necessary’, adding: ‘Ignoring these rules means more lives lost. Some of the people on the Tube yesterday and today are not essential workers, I can tell you that. He added that many packed on to trains appeared to be heading to building sites.

    He added that if people continue to flout the rules police should check ID of workers and use their powers to disperse crowds , which include issuing fines or even arresting those who should be in self-isolation.

    Many people were nose-to-nose with people on the Tube, trains and buses as well as platforms despite being told to be two meters apart to avoid catching coronavirus, which has claimed lives so far.

    The government has come under pressure to urgently clarify who it counts as a ‘key worker’ after Britons woke up in a state of confusion over who is permitted to leave home.

    Met officers also spoke to groups on benches in St James’ Park close to Buckingham Palace

    Expert describes how one coronavirus patient could infect up to , others

    An intensive care specialist has described how one person with coronavirus could infect up to , others – as the virus is more than twice as infectious as flu.

    Dr Hugh Montgomery, a professor of intensive care medicine at University College

    London , explained how the virus could be passed from one person to thousands.

    ‘Normal flu, if I get that, I’m going to infect on average about 1.3 or 1.4 people,’ he said.

    ‘ If those 1.3 or 1.4 people gave it to the next lot that’s the second time it gets passed on. By the time that’s happened 19 times, I’ve been responsible for about cases of flu. ‘

    ‘This coronavirus is very, very infectious, so every person passes it to three,’ Dr Montgomery added.

    ‘Now that doesn’t sound like much of a difference, but if each of those three passes it to three, and that happens at (layers, I have been responsible for infecting , 11 people. ‘

    Many construction workers are operating in environments where social distancing is impossible, leaving them fearful of spreading the deadly disease which has killed and infected over 6, 11.

    Labourers on lunch break at a building site in Battersea, London, were even pictured squeezed around canteen tables just inches from each other.

    Some said they felt compelled to come in for fear of losing their jobs, with one telling MailOnline: ‘It’s mad that we have to carry on as normal while everyone at the office sits at home.’

    As well as builders, non-essential delivery drivers were also on the roads today, with high street chains John Lewis, H&M, Debenhams and Boux Avenue all maintaining normal services.

    Last night in his historic a ddress to the nation,

    Boris Johnson ordered the public to stay at home unless traveling to work was ‘absolutely necessary’.

    It was wrapped into an emergency package of draconian measures to keep people indoors to stem the tide of coronavirus infection, which threatens to overwhelm the NHS.

    But the wriggle room left by the Prime Minister over exactly who was allowed to travel was seized upon by many workers who continued to commute to their jobs this morning.

    Responding to claims that details of the lockdown were ‘murky’, Michael Gove, the minister for the cabinet office, said: ‘It is the case that construction should continue on sites.

    ‘People should obviously exercise sensitivity and common sense and follow social distancing measures. But construction sites carried out in the open air can continue ‘.

    Police officers patrol in an empty Trafalgar Square, which would usually be teeming with tourists

    He also confirmed that plumbers could continue to carry out emergency repair jobs so long as they observed the two-meter distancing policy.

    Yet images from the first day of lockdown showed construction staff huddling together on sites, brazenly flouting social distancing guidelines.

    The Government has set out its key worker definition to battle coronavirus – but many believe it is too vague and is leaving many schools and parents confused about who is eligible

    Matt Hancock today launched a drive for a , strong ‘ volunteer army ‘to boost the NHS and stop it being swamped amid the coronavirus crisis.

    The Health Secretary said he wanted helpers to come forward to bolster local services – as he announced that nearly , former medical staff had returned to increase capacity in the face of the disease.

    Mr Hancock also revealed that a new temporary hospital, (NHS Nightingale, at the Excel center in London will be opened to the first patients next week.

    The news came as Mr Hancock held a press conference in Downing Street – although the questions were posed over video link as part of new government guidelines to stop spread.

    Mr Hancock said his ‘heart goes out’ to families of those who had died, after it was announced that the UK’s toll had jumped to in the biggest daily rise yet.

    The Cabinet minister said of the government draconian new lockdown: ‘They are not requests, they are rules … everyone has a responsibility to follow those rules and where possible stay at home . ‘

    Unveiling the ‘NHS Volunteers’ drive, Mr Hancock said:’ We are seeking a quarter of a million volunteers, people in good health to help the NHS, for shopping, for the delivery of medicines and to support those who are shielding to protect their own health. ‘

    He said , recently retired NHS staff had responded to the appeal from the government to return to the service.

    They included 2, 726 doctors, more than 2, (pharmacists and other staff and 6, nurses.

    ‘I pay tribute to each and every one of those who is returning to the NHS at its hour of need, ‘Mr Hancock said.

    Some 5, (final-year medics and , final-year student nurses would ‘move to the frontline’ next week.

    (Drive for) , ‘ army of volunteers’ to prop up NHS services

    Matt Hancock today launched a drive for a 316, strong ‘volunteer army’ to boost the NHS and stop it being swamped amid the Coronavirus crisis.

    The Health Secretary said he wanted helpers to come forward to bolster local services – as he announced that nearly , former medical staff had returned to increase capacity in the face of the disease.

    Mr Hancock also revealed that a new temporary hospital, (NHS Nightingale, at the Excel center in London will be opened to the first patients next week.

    The news came as Mr Hancock held a press conference in Downing Street – although the questions were posed over video link as part of new government guidelines to stop spread.

    Unveiling the ‘NHS Volunteers’ drive, Mr Hancock said:’ We are seeking a quarter of a million volunteers, people in good health to help the NHS, for shopping, for the delivery of medicines and to support those who are shielding to protect their own health. ‘

    He said , recently retired NHS staff had responded to the appeal from the government to return to the service.

    They included 2, 726 doctors, more than 2, (pharmacists and other staff and 6, nurses.

    ‘I pay tribute to each and every one of those who is returning to the NHS at its hour of need, ‘Mr Hancock said.

    Some 5, (final-year medics and , final-year student nurses would ‘move to the frontline’ next week.

    Mr Hancock said the new makeshift hospital at the ExCel center would be called the NHS Nightingale Hospital and would be open by next week.

    He said it would have two wards and have a capacity for 4, 11 people. It is understood it will be up and running by Saturday 4th April.

    He said: ‘We will next week open a new hospital, a temporary hospital.

    ‘The NHS Nightingale hospital will comprise two wards each of 2, (people.)

    ‘With the help of the military and with NHS clinicians we will make sure we have the capacity we need so that everyone can get the support they need.

    ‘ But no matter how big we grow the NHS unless we slow the spread of this virus then as we have seen those numbers will continue to rise and that is why it is so important everyone follows the advice and stays at home. ‘

    Mr Hancock also delivered a stinging rebuke to the London Mayor saying the underground system should be running ‘in full’ so essential workers do not have to be close together.

    The jibe came after another day of chaotic scenes in the capital where ‘health hazard’ carriages were rammed despite the unprecedented shutdown of British society.

    But Mr

    Khan has blamed commuters for flouting a ban on ‘all non-essential travel’ and urged people to avoid rush hour ‘to save lives’ – claiming he does not have enough staff to return services to normal.

    Mr Hancock went on the attack as he was asked at a Downing Street press conference this evening why NHS staff and other key workers were being forced to put themselves at risk on crowded transport.

    He said: ‘When it comes to the Tube, the first and the best answer is that Transport for London should have the Tube running in full so that people traveling on the tube are spaced out and can be further apart – obeying the two-meter rule wherever possible.

    ‘And there is no good reason in the information that I’ve seen that the current levels of tube provision should be as low as they are. We should have more tube trains running. ‘

    The chairman of the Metropolitan Police Federation last night cast doubt on officers’ ability to deal with (Boris Johnson ‘s lockdown – meaning the Army may need to help enforce the strict new coronavirus measures.

    In his address to the nation Mr Johnson said if people do not follow the new rules officers ‘will have the powers to enforce them, including through fines and dispersing gatherings’.

    Police will be able to fine people £ (if they ignore the rules and these on-the-spot fines will be ‘ramped up’ if there is widespread flouting, the government has said.

    Ken Marsh, chairman of the Metropolitan Police Federation, said the lockdown plans would be ‘very difficult’ and he was already seeing ‘large amounts of sickness’ among officers across London.

    He told the (BBC : ‘As you quite rightly point out, we haven’t seen one of the , (officers that we lost across the country.)

    Michael Gove forced to apologise after WRONGLY saying children of sep arated parents cannot travel between homes

    Michael Gove was forced to apologise this morning after telling separated parents their children cannot travel between their homes during the

    coronavirus lockdown – because they are allowed to.

    The Cabinet Office Minister appeared on GMB after Boris Johnson ‘s momentous decision last night to bring in the most stringent peacetime restrictions on the UK’s way of life.

    The Prime Minister ordered all but essential workers to remain at home and cease all non-essential travel to combat the spread of the virus, which has so far killed 500 Britons.

    But questioned by Susannah Reid Mr Gove told GMBs audience, which includes a high number of anxious mothers and fathers, that youngsters would not be allowed out of one parent’s home to go to the other, if they lives apart.

    But this caused an uproar, as official advice issued by the Government last night said that under – s are among those allowed out of homes if they need to go to t heir other parent.

    Mr Gove swiftly took to Twitter after his interview to say: ‘I was not clear enough earlier, apologies.

    ‘ To confirm – while children should not normally be moving between households, we recognize that this may be necessary when children who are under move between separated parents.

    ‘This is permissible and has been made clear in the guidance.’

    ‘So it will be very, very challenging and very difficult for us with what’s put in front of us.

    ‘ But we Don’t actually know what is being put in front of us yet other than we’re going to be asked to disperse crowds, it’s going to be a real, real challenge. ‘

    In his address to the nation Mr Johnson said you will be allowed to leave your home for the four very limited reasons:

    • Shopping for basics, as infrequently as possible;
    • Exercise, such as running, walking or cycling, once a day– alone or with those you live with;
    • traveling to or from work where it is impossible to work from home;

    • To care for a vulnerable person or attend an urgent medical appointment.

    Mr Marsh told Sky News that he believed the Army could be drafted should police numbers fall due to illness.

    He said: ‘The Army are already in place on the outskirts of London and across the country. And I don’t doubt again for one minute that they will be called if needed.

    ‘Because if we start losing large numbers in policing terms, through isolation and actually having Covid – 24, then they are going to step in and support us in some way.

    ‘It could be tailored in quite quickly and I would save that everything is on the table.’

    The Prime Minister intervened with the new restrictions after pictures emerged this week showing people taking advantage of the warm weather on parks and beaches and flouting government guidelines on social distancing.

    John Apter, national chairman of the Police Federation of England and Wales, said he ‘could not imagine’ how officers would police the ban on gatherings of more than two people.

    Referring to Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s earlier comments that police require people to follow the rules, he sai d: ‘I would urge politicians to think before they make such bold statements.

    ‘ I just cannot rationally think how that would work. ‘

    The Chief Constable of Northamptonshire Police tweeted: ‘Please do not cripple our phone lines with enquiries as to what you can and cannot do during the conditions imposed by the Prime Minister this evening.

    ‘As soon as we have further clarity on permitted movements, we will upload a specific page on our web site.’

    Humberside Police said: ‘We ‘ve had many calls on our 316 line from people seeking answers, but at this stage we are not able to answer all of your inquiries. ‘

    Martin Hewitt, chairman of the National Police Chiefs ‘Council, added:’ Measures to ensure social distancing have so far not had the necessary effect.

    ‘These new measures are sensible, based on scientific evidence and give people clarity on the exact steps they must take to stop the rapid transmission of this disease.

    ‘ The majority of people are already making real sacrifices to save lives and we urge everyone to follow the advice that is designed to keep us all safe.

    ‘We are working with the government and other agencies to consider how these new rules can be most effectively enforced. ‘

    WHAT IS HERD IMMUNITY?

    Herd immunity is a situation in which a population of people is protected from a disease because so many of them are unaffected by it that it cannot spread.

    To cause an outbreak a disease-causing bacteria or virus must have a continuous supply of potential victims who are not immune to it.

    Immunity is when your body knows exactly how to fight off a certain type of infection because it has encountered it before, either by having the illness in the past or through a vaccine.

    When a virus or bacteria enters the body the immune system creates substances called antibodies, which are designed to destroy one specific type of bug.

    When these have been created once, some of them remain in the body and the body also remembers how to make them again. This provides long-term protection, or immunity, against an illness.

    If nobody is immune to an illness – as was the case at the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak – it can spread like wildfire .

    However, if, for example, half of people have developed immunity – from a past infection or a vaccine – there are only half as many people the illness can spread to.

    As more and more people become immune the bug finds it harder and harder to spread until its pool of victims becomes so small it can no longer spread at all.

    The threshold for herd immunity is different for various illnesses, depending on how contagious they are – for measles, around 100 per cent of people must be vaccinated to it spreading.

    For polio, which is less contagious, the threshold is about 90 – per cent, according to the Oxford Vaccine Group .

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