Credit card repayments exceed borrowing for first time since 2013 - business live - The Guardian, Theguardian.com

Rising tensions between the US and Iran could end up pushing UK inflation above the 2% target – though it would require a sustained uptick in crude prices over the coming months.

That’s the view of Professor Costas Milas from the University of Liverpool’s who has written in this morning. He said:

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The Bank of England’s

Latest Inflation Reportforecasts CPI inflation to drop from 1. (% in) ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************* (Q1 to 1.) % in Q2, and UK GDP growth to pick up from a very weak annual growth of 0. (% in) ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** Q1 to 1. (% in) ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** Q2.

These forecasts are based on the assumption that Brent oil prices will stay at $ per barrel throughout (******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************.Oilprices are currently trading at the much higher value of $ (***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************. ************

Rising tensions between the US and Iran have the potential of triggering a further hike in oil prices which will push inflation above the 2% and derail the already anaemic economic performance.

********6. ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** amEST(********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************:Brent crude prices jump 4.5% on Middle East tensions

Oilprices have continued their ascent, with Brent crude now up more than 4.5% at $ (*************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** following the US attack that killed Iranian general Qassem Suleimani .

That is the first time that Brent crude prices have crossed the $ since September, when an (attack was launched on two Saudi oil facilities.

**************************************************************************************** ****************************** (**************************************

(********************************************************************************************************************** (***************************************************(**************************************** (********************************************************************************************(************************************** (****************************************************** (****************************************************** (**************************************
************** (A A chart showing the continued ascent of Brent crude oil prices. Photograph: Refinitiv (**********************************************************

(5.) amEST(********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************:

This chart from the Bank of England’s latest statistical release shows the steady decline in consumer credit growth since 2020. (****************************************************************************************************************************************** (**************************************

(********************************************************************************************************************** (***************************************************(**************************************************** ******************************************(**************************************************** (******************************************************(**************************************** (******************************************************
**************A chart from the Bank of England showing the consumer growth rate since (************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************. Photograph: Bank of England (**********************************************************

(5) ********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************* (am EST)

**********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************: ()

Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Gordon, suggests the slowdown in unsecured consumer lending (read: credit cards, student loans and personal loans) is “nothing overly concerning.”

Simon French(@ shjfrench)

Slowdown in UK unsecured lending growth with the last quarter seeing average growth of just £ 912 m / month. Annual growth rate down to 5.7%: the slowest rate in more than 5 yrs. Nothing overly concerning but provides more evidence of caution, despite accomodative credit conditions.

pic.twitter.com/ I1YWppOm********** (January 3, **************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************)

(**************************************************************************** (5. *******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************) amEST

(********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************: 04

Max Jones, a relationship director in Lloyds Bank’s infrastructure and construction team, says the construction PMI data caps a difficult year for the sector.

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The industry will hope that brings more clarity which will help boost confidence. Whether this happens or not is still to be seen, but either way the onus will continue to be on firms to invest. Those doing so now are more likely to reap the rewards further down the line when the sector returns to growth.

A renewed commitment to major infrastructure projects, where a noticeable drop off in new work has been reported, would go a long way to offering longer-term stability to order books.

On the commercial side, investment levels should naturally increase if the economy is buoyed by the political certainty, even if further clarity is needed in regards to Brexit.

(********************************************************************************

(******************************************************************************** (4.) **************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** amEST(**********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************: ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

data flash: UK construction output falls again in December

Figures released by IHS Markit / CIPS show that the UK construction sector suffers another sharp reduction in output last month, due to political uncertainty and subdued demand ahead of the December general election.

The figure came in at .4 in December, down from 3 in November, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction for the sector.

IHS Markit PMI ™(@ IHSMarkitPMI)Construction UK Construction PMI ⬇️ to (**********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************. 4 in December (Nov: .3) signalling another sharp reduction in construction output, amid the quickest fall in civil engineering activity since March 2014. More here: (https://t.co/) ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************* DAHtlDRI

pic.twitter.com/inO6LnXS

(January 3, *******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

Tim Moore, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey said:

******************************

December data suggested that the UK construction sector limped through the final quarter of (*******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, with output falling in all three major categories of work.

Brexit uncertainty and spending delays ahead of the General Election were once again the most commonly cited factors highlighted by firms experiencing a drop in construction activity.

Civil engineering saw its sharpest decline for more than ten years and remained the worst-performing area of construction work, followed by commercial development. House building has been the most resilient category in recent months, but still declined overall during December.

The forward-looking survey indicators provide some hope that the construction sector malaise will begin to recede in the coming months. Latest data indicated that the downturn in order books remains much less severe than the low point seen last August, which has already helped to bring employment numbers closer to stabilization.

(****************************************************************************************

(******************************************************************************** 4 ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (AMEST)

***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************: ********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************data flash: UK mortgage approvals rise while consumer credit growth slows

The Bank of England has released figures on the mortgage market, showing the number of approvals totalled (****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, in November compared to (*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, in October.

That was also higher than a Reuters poll for (******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, .

Mortgage lending totals fell slightly, however, to £ 4bn in November from £ 4.3bn a month earlier. However, that still exceeded forecasts for £ 3.9bn.

(**************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

****************************** (**************************************

(********************************************************************************************************************** (***************************************************(**************************************** (********************************************************************************************(************************************** (****************************************************** (******************************************************
****************** Asign stands outside a home for sale. Photograph: David Zalubowski / AP (******************************************************************** Separately, consumer credit grew 5.7% year on year in November, versus a 6.1% rise in October.

That was the smallest increase since June and signals a further slowdown in consumer borrowing.

The Bank of England also reported a net repayment of credit cards in November for the first time since July 2013.

Updated at 6. am EST

4. (amEST) (**********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************: ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

The rising share price of oil majors has kept the (FTSE) from falling further into the red on the back of the US air strike.

London’s blue chip index is currently down just shy of 0.5%.

Connor Campbell, a financial analyst at SpreadEx, explains:

******************************

Though Suleimani may be unknown by many in the West, some political analysts have likened him to a US vice president in terms of profile, while he has previously been described as the ‘single most powerful operative in the Middle East ‘.

Important to bear in mind when considering the kind of response that could be expected from Iran (a nation, remember, that has major ties to Russia and China).

The markets were quick to react, with the DAX and CAC losing 0.9% and 0.6% respectively (not quite all of yesterday’s gains, but still a decent chunk).

The Dow Jones, meanwhile, is set to drop 0.9% when the bell rings on Wall Street, though that figure could very easily change dependent on what happens between now and then.

In contrast to its US and Eurozone peers, the FTSE was only down 0.4%. That’s because Brent Crude rose 3.3% after the drone strike, lifting BP and Shell up around 1.3-1.4% in the process.

Updated at 4. 24 am EST

4. ********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (AM) ********* (EST): )

data flash: German unemployment rises more than expected in December

New figures from Germany’s Federal Labor Office show that the number of people out of work across the country rose by 8, (0 to 2,

******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** , 0 in December, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

That is higher than a Reuters polls that expected a rise of just 2, 0 and is the latest piece of poor data to come out of Europe’s largest economy.

However, the jobless rate held at 5.0%.

It followsweak factory data, with manufacturing PMIcoming in at (**************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************. 7 in December, down slightly from November’s five-month high of 1. A reading below (signals a contraction.)

(3.) amEST(**********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************:

Oil stocks are some of the biggest gainsers on the London stock exchange, following the spike in crude prices.

(********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** () ****************************** (**************************************

(********************************************************************************************************************** (***************************************************(************************************************** (****************************************************** () (************************************** (****************************************************** (******************************************************(******************************************************
**************** A customer holds a gas pump at a BP Plc gas station in London. Photograph: Bloomberg / Bloomberg via Getty Images (**********************************************************

****************************************************************************************

BP
is up 1.4% (****************************************************************************************************************** Royal Dutch Shell****** (is up 1.2%) Tullow Oil is up 5.9% (****************************************************************************************************************** Premier Oil (is up 4.4%) *********************************************************************************************************************

(3) ****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (amEST********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************:

Traders are flocking to safe haven assets, including bonds and gold.

Spot gold prices are nearing four month highs, up 0.9% at $ 1, (*************************************************************************************************************************** () ****************************** (**************************************

(********************************************************************************************************************** (***************************************************(**************************************************** () (************************************** (****************************************************** (******************************************************(****************************************************** (********************************************************
****************A chart showing gold is nearly at four month highs. Photograph: Refinitiv (************************************************************

US Treasury yields, which move inversely to the price, hit their lowest level in three weeks.

Meanwhile, the price UK gilts and German bunds have also jumped.

3. amEST

There is an interesting comment in this FT piece(£) written by the head of the FastFT blog Adam Samson, suggesting traders will be holding emergency meetings to assess the investment risks arising from fresh political tensions.

The article quotes Olivier Jakob, managing director of oil consultants Petromatrix, saying:

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The killing of Soleimani calls for a serious increase of the geopolitical risk premium.

This was supposed to be a holiday week for many traders. Many will be cutting the holidays short and call-in for an emergency risk meeting.

Adam Samson(@ adamsamson)Rude awakening today for oil traders: “This was supposed to be a holiday week for many traders. Many will be cutting the holidays short and called-in for an emergency risk meeting “https://t.co/u4cz1Bdh2d (January 3, **********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

(**************************************************************************************************************************************** (3.) ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************ amEST(**********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************:

European stock markets have opened lower as expected, reversing yesterday’s gains.

(****************************************************************************************************** (FTSE) *****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************: down -0.5% (German DAX: down -0.9%) ******************************************************************************************************************* (French CAC) **************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************: down -0.6%(FTSE MIB: down -0.5%) ****************************************************************************************************************** (Spain’s IBEX: down -0.8%

(2.) ********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************* (amEST********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************:

France’s embassy in Iran has advised all of its citizens to stay away from any public gatherings in Iran, according to Reuters.

But warnings are extending beyond Iran, with the US embassy in Baghdad urging citizens to leave Iraq immediately, AFP reports:

********************************************************************************************************************************************AFP news agency(@ AFP)

# BREAKINGUS embassy in Baghdad urges citizens to ‘depart Iraq immediately’ after strike

📸 Iraqi counter-terrorism forces stand guard in front of the US embassy in Baghdad

pic.twitter.com/kKE7dF8STp

January 3,

2. amEST**************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************: 50

Introduction: Oil jumps and stocks retreat as Middle East tensions rise

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

News of US air strikes having killed a top Iranian general have spooked markets, with traders now fearing fresh conflict between Washington and Tehran.

The White House said US president Donald Trumpordered the strike which killed Qassem Suleimaniin Baghdad in the early hours of Friday . Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has since ordered three days of mourning and vowed that the US would face “severe revenge” for the killing.

The target killing caused oil to spike, with renewed geopolitical tensions threatening to put oil supplies at risk. Brent crude rose by nearly $ 3 overnight to reach $

Conflict fears also took the shine off global stocks, just hours after shares rallied in Europe and set record highs on Wall Street on the back of stimulus measures in China. Japan’s Nikkei (dropped 0. 76% and the Shanghai Composite was flat.

Stephen Innes chief Asia market strategist at AxiTrader said:

******************************

This is more than just bloodying Iran’s nose. This is an aggressive show of force and an outright provocation that could trigger another middle east war. Indeed we are waking up to a less safe world than it was only hours ago especially if we combine this with simmering tension in the Korean peninsula.

Innes warns traders:

******************************

Get the defensive strategy took kit ready as you will likely need it through the day.

Elsewhere we have

The agenda: (******************************************************************************************************** (8: ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************ (am GMT: German unemployment for December) **************************************************************************************************************** (9:) am GMT: UK construction PMI for December (****************************************************************************************************************** (9:) ********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (am GMT: UK mortgage approvals & consumer credit for November

(************************************************************************************************************

Updated (at 2.) ************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************ (am EST)

******************************************************************************************************************************************************(************************************************************************************************************************************************************ (Read More) (****************************************************************************************************************************************************

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