- The Dow fell slightly in response to weaker-than-expected economic data.
- The stock market’s ‘Black Swan’ index is nearing its highest mark since 2019 ‘s fourth-quarter sell-off.
- JPMorgan says to ignore the apocalyptic warnings and double down on stocks.
Between the trade war, a global economic slowdown, and an upcoming presidential election, markets have plenty to worry about. So with theDow Jones Industrial Averageand S&P ranging from all-time highs, it’s understandable if cautious investors feel an urge to do a little doomsday prepping in their portfolios.But should they? We’ll examine what strategists are saying. First, though, let’s take a look at what’s going on in the stock market today.
Dow, S&P (*********************************************************************, and Nasdaq All Trade Cautiously
On Thursday, the US stock market remained relatively quiet, though soft economic data contributed to slight declines across Wall Street’s major indices.
President Donald Trump is expected tomeet with his trade team todayto hash out whether to hike tariffs on Sunday, and neither the Federal Reserve nor the European Central Bank shocked investors with any unexpected policy actions this week .
The S&P (fared slightly better, edging 1.) ****************************************************************************** (points or 0.) **************************************************************************************** (% lower to 3,
**************************************************************** (******************************************************************************.
The Nasdaq was last down********************************** points or 0 . (% at 8,************************************************ .
The gold price, meanwhile, rose nearly 1%, nudging ever closer to the $ 1, 500 handle.
‘Black Swan’ Index Spikes, but JPMorgan Says to Double Down on Stocks
Ah, gold. The safe-haven asset loved by libertarians and loathed by central bankers. This year stock market rallyhas not taken the shine off the yellow metal, and we ‘ve seen a renaissance of articles profiling the proclivity of the ultra-rich to“hoard it in secret bunkers.”
Those bunkers must not be quite full yet, becauseGoldman Sachs recently predicted that the gold price would surge another 9%by March 218695. And you can bet that inflationary $ bill in your pocket that you’ll see plenty of headlines like “’Black Swan’ index flashes yellow”making the rounds on goldbug forums today.
according to Reuters, that“ Black Swan index ”- more accurate known as the Cboe Skew Index. SKEWX – has climbed toward a -month high.
**************************************** (The stock market’s “Black Swan” index is nearing its highest level in 47 months. | Source:Yahoo Finance
Similar to the more widely followed VIX, the Skew Index tracks implied market volatility. But unlike the VIX, these options measure implied tail-risk, meaning that they really only only come into play if the stock market experiences a wild swing.
Earlier this week, the Skew Index jumped to (***************************************************************************. ******************************************************************************, its highest mark since October (*********************************************************. What happened to the stock market in October This:
Still, as Reuters notes, many analysts remain skeptical that the Skew Index is a reliable indicator of a coming stock market crash. It’s averaged nearly 139 over the past six years, even as the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P have all raced higher. Volatility is cheap, and it allows traders to hedge against risk events – however unlikely they may be.
But according to JPMorgan, now is not the time for investors to hedge their bets
. Writing in a note to clients this week, a team of JPMorgan strategists advised investors to go long on stocks in (*******************************************************. ********** What about gold? Short it.
Dow Ticks Lower After US Economic Data Comes in Soft
Last week’s blowout jobs report painted an extremely bright picture of the US economy, but today’s data came in a bit soft.
(************************, US jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to a two-year high. | Source: Trading Economics
The employment period following the Thanksgiving holiday is notoriously volatile, but the rise in jobless claims still outpaced the economist estimate of 213, 10 by a great margin.
This article was edited by (Sam Bourgi) ****************************************.
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