Election Needle: New Hampshire Primary Forecast - The New York Times, Nytimes.com

Updated Feb. 15, , 2: PM ET

A forecast uses partial returns to estimate an election’s final result.

Estimate of the Final Vote

The candidate with the most votes is considered the winner of the New Hampshire primary.







Estimated vote share

                                   Best guess        5%

% of outcomes



%



CANDIDATE Est. vote share NYT WIN PROB. EVENTUAL WINNER?

                  Where Votes Remain for Each Candidate



For places that have not yet reported all their votes, we make an educated guess based on the results so far and what we know about the people who live in those places.



All candidates

Klobuchar

Sanders

Warren

Yang

Buttigieg

Biden

Steyer Circle size is proportional to

the amount each county’s leading candidate is ahead .

Where votes have been counted

CANDIDATE

Votes counted

PCT.

Where we think votes remain

CANDIDATE Est. votes remaining PCT.

                  Estimate of the Pledged Delegate Count



There are pledged delegates at stake. Eight delegates are allotted based on the statewide vote, and eight are allotted in each of the state’s two congressional districts. Candidates must receive 50 percent of the vote statewide or in a congressional district to receive delegates.







Estimated pledged delegates



                                   Best guess        5%

% of outcomes



%



CANDIDATE Est. delegates NYT WIN PROB.

EVENTUAL LEADER?



Here’s how our estimates have changed over time:

                  Chance of Winning the Primary

                             As measured by total votes.

                  Comparing vote share estimates and reality



Comparing our estimates with the reported vote margin.



Est. vote share

Best guess 5%

% of outcomes

%



                  Estimated Share of the Vote Counted



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