Thursday , October 29 2020

Experiment closes critical gap in weather forecasting – Phys.org, Phys.org


    

        

UM-led experiment closes critical gap in weather forecasting
                Across the southeastern United States, the atmosphere decided to send an early preview of what it can actually cook up in terms of summer heat, as record-breaking temperatures soared to the triple digits across parts of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. The record heat was tied to a wavy pattern of the jet stream as anomalous high pressure sat over the Southeast and anomalous low pressure resided over the Southwest causing cooler than average temperatures. In between, the Great Plains saw day after day of severe storms and tornadoes as the pressure pattern barelyshifted for several days. Credit: NOAA             

Scientists working on the next frontier of weather forecasting are hoping that weather conditions 3-to-4 weeks out will soon be as readily available as seven-day forecasts. Having this type of weather information — called subseasonal forecasts — in the hands of the public and emergency managers can provide the critical lead time necessary to prepare for natural hazards like heat waves or the next polar vortex.                                                

      

Scientists like University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science Professor Ben Kirtman and Assistant Professor Kathleen Pegion at George Mason University are leading the way to close this critical gap in the

“Subseasonal predictions is the most difficult timeframe to predict,” said Kirtman, a professor of atmospheric sciences and director of the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS). “The hardest part is taking all the observations and putting them into the model.”

SubX is filling the gap between the prediction of weather and the prediction of seasonal conditions, which is guided by slowly evolving ocean conditions like

and soil moisture and variability in the climate system that work on time scales of weeks. To get to the subseasonal scale, scientists need information on conditions that affects global weather such as large-scale convective anomalies like the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the tropical Indian Ocean into their computer models.

    

        

                Starting on the Fourth of July and lasting multiple days, temperatures across Alaska were (to) degrees above average in some locations. In Anchorage, the highs reached 80 ° Ffor a record six consecutive days, doubling the previous record. And three of those days broke or tied the previous all-time record. The average high temperature from June 30 through July 8 was nearly 81 ° F, 5.5 ° F higher than the previous – day record. Credit: NOAA             

“The SubX public database makes 3-4 week forecasts available right now and provides researchers the data infrastructure to investigate how to make them even better in the future,” said Pegion.

SubX has already shown great promise forecasting. It accurately predicted the amount of rainfall from Hurricane Michael —- roughly 81 mm, the 4th of July heat wave in Alaska where temperatures reached over degrees Fahrenheit – (to

As Kirtman and his research team pointed out in an Oct.article in the American Meteorological Society’s journal BAMS, “early warning” of, extreme cold, flooding rains, flash drought, or other weather hazards as far as 4 weeks into the future could allow for risk reduction and disaster preparedness, potentially preserving life and resources. Less extreme, but no less important, reliable probabilistic forecasts about the potential for warmer, colder, wetter, or drier conditions at a few weeks lead are valuable for routine planning and resource management. ”                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

                                            

Citation                                                  Experiment closes critical gap in weather forecasting (01575879, December 7 )                                                  retrieved 7 December 01575879                                                  from https://phys.org/news/Payeer– 18 – critical-gap-weather.html                                             

                                            

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