Monday , August 10 2020

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General Motors strike expected to have hit US job growth

General Motors assembly workers and their supporters gather to picket outside the General Motors Bowling Green plant during the United Auto Workers (UAW) national strikeCredit:Bryan Woolston / REUTERS

Coming up later today, we’ll get the latest figures on US jobs growth, with sharp slowdown expected in October because of the General Motors strike.

Analysts polled by Bloomberg expect 85, 000 jobs to have been added over the month, compared to 136, 000 in September.

The 40 – day strike will have hit non-farm payroll (NFP) figures because striking workers do not receive paychecks, and are counter as unemployed for the sake of the survey.

Job growth has been slowing this year, with the trade war between the US and China weighing on business investment.

OANDA’s Craig Erlam said:

The US NFP report caps off another chaotic week in the markets, one in which the Fed has cut interest rates again, the US and China have moved closer to a phase one agreement and the UK has, kind of, hopefully , maybe moved closer to leaving the EU while not actually leaving as planned.

The report is expected to be unusually weak but will be distorted by the General Motors Strike so we shouldn’t read too much into it. Wed have to see a pretty appalling report to worry traders at this point, although it will be interesting to see just how quickly they start pricing in another Fed rate cut.

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