6th Update Sunday AM:Refresh for chart and more analysisAnd so Thanksgiving 2019 ends with Disney’sFrozen 2collecting a 5-day estimate of$ 126 .3M, the most ever for any film that has played the holiday, opener or holdover, besting Lionsgate’s 2013Hunger Games: Catching Fire($ 109 .9M), plus it was a fantastic win for auteur-driven original IP from Lionsgate / Media Rights Capital’s Rian Johnson whoduni tKnives Out,which is flying well ahead of its high $ (Ms – $) M 5-day forecasts with an estimated$ 41 .7M(a number Lionsgate is also reporting). Disney is calling its 5-day at$ 123 .Mfor 10 – day take of$ 287. 6M,which is ahead of the $ 284 M we were spotting last week.
Despite the record amount of bucks made byFrozen 2,and the more than solid turnout byKnives Out,the Thanksgiving 5-day stretch per Comscore grossed an estimated$ 263. (M) , – 16% from last year holiday record of $ 315. What’s the difference? There was more older skewing original adult product on the marquee this year withKnives Out, Ford v. Ferrari,A Beautiful Day in the NeighborhoodandQueen & Slim,while last year boasted more family centric and franchise fare which held over the 5-day stretch , ieCreed 2($ (M),Fantastic Beasts 2($ 42 .3M),The Grinch(($ 42 M), andBohemian Rhapsody(a retro pop culture event that played to all ages with a 5-day of $ 19 .5M).
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On the upside,Frozen 2and Thanksgiving moviegoing finally pushed 2019 past the$ 10 billion mark YTD. The gap between 2019 and 2018 was -9% heading into the weekend, and coming out we’re only trailing last year BO by 5.6%. Current YTD B.O. for Jan. 1-Dec. 1 is$ 10 2Bto last year $ 10 .8B over the same period. Also, this YTD, we’re 4.4% ahead of 2017. Reminder that 2018 hit the high water mark for US / Canada with $ 11. Prior to that 2016 is the second highest at the domestic BO with $ 11. B. 2017 rang up $ 11 .1B and 2015 did $ 11. 13 B.
When it comes to sequels to animated movies, here’s the smart thing about Disney: They don’t just pump them out in excess over a short period of time, eroding ticket sales for each installment like some other studios do. Rather, they sit and wait, and wait to develop the best follow-ups possible. Disney could have pumped out aFrozen 2a couple of years after the 2013 version, and by this time have already delivered aFrozen 3.But they didn’t get antsy or desperate for a cash grab. What Disney has that most studios don’t is the benefit that their animated hits in the after-market will age like fine wine, cultivating new generations of fans. Hence, 6, 9, 13 or 14 years down the road when it comes time to launch a sequel, not only does a sequel appeal to everyone from 2 – 80 years old, but it’s a gargantuan box office win. While some rival studios may build a feature toon franchise within the same amount of years betweenFrozenandFrozen 2,they run the risk of tapping it out faster.Frozen 2will own the box office for another 12 days until Sony’sJumanji: The Next Levelarrives.
Regarding the success ofKnives Out,Johnson and his T-Street partner Ram Bergman beamed, “We are super excited that people came out in full force to experience Knives Out. We are thankful to our partners at MRC and Lionsgate and everyone who showed up to see the movie. ”
“Rian Johnson created a fresh and original crowd-pleasing film with Knives Out and, along with Ram Bergman, assembled a stellar cast, and we are thrilled to see it connecting with audiences,” said MRC Film Co-Presidents Brye Adler and Jonathan Golfman. “It was an incredible collaboration between MRC, T-Street, and Lionsgate, who did a phenomenal job marketing and distributing the film.”
Universal / Makeready / Bron’sQueen & Slimis filing a$ 11 7M3-day and$ 15 .8M5-day after a $ 4 . 59 M Saturday. Fox / New Regency’sWidowswas always a comparison here and that movie opened to $ 12 .3M at 2, 803 a year ago. It should be noted thatQ&Sdid a potent amount of business on fewer screens, a count of 1, 690 and a $ 9,3K 5-day screen average.Widowsended its run at $ 42. 4M off a B CinemaScore and the great exits of A- CinemaScore and 5 stars on PostTrak here onQ&Shave many believing that this racial injustice drama can get to $ 50 M. The pic, largely financed by Makeready and Bron cost $ 17 M before P&A.
“Universal believes in championing bold filmmakers with a unique voice. WithQueen & Slim, Melina Matsoukas and Lena Waithe together deliver an emotionally powerful film, bringing a level of authenticity to their storytelling that you don’t often see. There’s no doubt this film will leave a lasting impression on audiences ”said Universal domestic distribution boss Jim Orr.
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5th Update Saturday AM:While Black Friday tickets sales surged 101% over Thanksgiving, one of the most lucrative movie going days of the year is down 15% from a year ago with $ 71 .1m. Last year repped the second-best Black Friday ever, with $ 83 .3M (behind 2013 ‘s $ (M). Standing resilient and the big driver of holiday business is Disney’sFrozen 2,which, after making$ 34. 1Myesterday, is looking at a 3-day of$ 86 .7M, 5-day of$ 126 .3M(still a Thanksgiving 5-day record ahead ofHunger Games: Catching Fire) and running total by end of tomorrow of $ 290 .1m. Domestic endgame for Anna and Elsa’s second go-round is projected to be $ 450 M, which is $ 49 .3M ahead of the 2013 original. And in no way a shocker, Adobe Analytics reports thatFrozen 2was one of the biggest toys to fly off shelves yesterday, along with LOL doll.
Revised Comscore / Screen Engine PostTrak exits show 46% general audiences and 54% families forFrozen 2,with 4 1/2 stars from general audiences and parents and 4 stars from kids under 12, still driven by girls at 68%. Among all age groups, women under 25 are leading at 39%, followed by women over 25 at 30%, men over 25 at 16%, and men under 25 at 15%.Frozen 2‘s second Saturday is expected to come in around $ 33. 2M today, -2% from yesterday. We’ll just see about that. If it’s higher, all weekend estimates jump up again.
Lionsgate / Media Rights Capital’sKnives Outin second made $ 10. 66 M yesterday, on its way to$ 27 .7Mfor the weekend and$ (4M) five-day. Sources predict it’s a cinch for this whodunit to hit $ 100 M by the end of its stateside run. The film was produced by director Rian Johnson and Ram Bergman’s T-Street. Versus Kenneth Branagh’s all-starMurder on the Orient Express,which was launched in early November 2017 around Veterans Day,Knives Out5-day is pacing 24% ahead of that movie, which ended its US / Canada run at $ 102 .8m. In addition to having a respected auteur who can deliver business,Knives Out,likeOrient Express,benefits from its all- star cast that appeals to varying demos.
We often overwrite that stars don’t drive the box office, only IP does. However, stars do still count when packaged appropriately at the box office. We see that here with 007 ‘s Daniel Craig,AvengersandCaptain America‘s Chris Evans,HalloweenandScream QueensJamie Lee Curtis, and more. We also saw that earlier this fall with the multi-appealingHustlerswith Jennifer Lopez and Cardi B,Riverdale‘s Lili Reinhart, andCrazy Rich Asians’Contance Wu. And we see what the devastating effect is on box office when you stack a semi-popular IP with too many fresh faces an out of the box star in Sony’sCharlie’s Angels,which may not see a final domestic BO of $ 25 M (ugh!).
Knives Outhas accumulated a social media universe that’s around 114 M, per RelishMix, made up of 10 .9M Facebook fans, 3.4M Facebook video views, 5.4M Twitter followers, 32 .3M YouTube views and 5.4M Instagram followers. That’s ahead of the typical drama / thriller, which has an SMU of 82 .8m. Organic views for top clips are averaging 34 .9K, which is far ahead of the usual 22 K for average daily YouTube views. Some campy stuff that worked in the spirit of the pic’s comedic vein is a Martha Stewart Facebook parody spot feature Curtis, clocking over 5.9M views, 842 K in the last week:
“The curiosity aroundKnives Outfor the audience is, which is it – more serious, or comedic? And that’s part of the fun. The movie has achieved social engagement leaning heavily positive based on its campaign’s core messaging, ‘When was the last time you had fun at the movies?’ The cast really helped this mystery film gain traction and build the fun toward opening weekend. For example, Evans drove plenty of moviegoers to see the trailers and other fun clips forKnives, which speaks to the after-effect of theAvengersseries. Craig and Curtis, the latter hot off ofHalloweenlast year, were instrumental in this film’s reach and engagement achievements, as convo confirms. There is also the usual references to the songs, the moments, and the hunt for those ‘Easter eggs,’ particularly in the fun materials put out by a thriller / mystery likeKnives,”Reports RelishMix.
While Evans is the social media leader for the pic with close to 21 M followers, others include Katherine Langford with 14 .6M on Instagram, and even Johnson with over 1M between Twitter and Instagram. The latter has been posting behind-the- scenes materials from the set and provided the organic push toward last Friday and Saturday’s sneak previews (which made over $ 2M). West coast biz forKnives Outis still strong.
Fox / Disney’sFord v. Ferrariafter a $ 5.3M Friday is expected to outpace Sony’sA Beautiful Day in the Neighborhoodfor the holiday frame,$ 13 .9Mto$ 12 .9Mfor the 3-day and$ 19 .8Mto$ 18 3Mfor the 5 -day in spots 3 and 4.
Universal / Makeready / Bron’sQueen & Slimgrossed$ 4.3Myesterday on its way to$ 10 .8M3-day and a$ 14 .9M5-day. This drama’s best business is doing very well on the East Coast, along with the South. Updated: Eight of the top ten runs came out of NYC or Atlanta. Universal has been able to distinguish this film in the marketplace in its trailers from rival African American feature21 Bridges.The studio dropped an intriguing trailer at the end of July, which clocked 5M views on YouTube, giving assumption that we’d see this intriguing Lena Waithe- scripted pic in the fall film festival troika.
But the major fests overlooked it, with the exception of AFI, which booked the pic as its opening night film (AFI is director Melina Matsoukas’ alma mater). A late start in regards to buzz for what is a critically acclaimed, audience appealing movie that could have been an autumn lightning rod out of the gate. That said, sources believe the pic’s great word-of-mouth can carry this pic to a $ 50 M domestic final.
RelishMix saw mixed convo toward the pic heading into the weekend, which might explain pic’s OK start (we should also note that the pic is only at 1, 690 locations), and that a movie with its topic of injustice is a little heavy around Thanksgiving. Also, “The cast ofQueen & Slimis moderate in its reach and activation for the film. Daniel Kaluuya appeared on Steven Colbert, and writer Waithe has been interviewed on a myriad of shows and radio programs recently. But, Kaluuya’s Instagram is set to private, and co-star Jodie Turner-Smith has a smaller social footprint than most stars, ”observes RelishMix.
Weekend estimates based on studio sources as of this morning:
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4th Update Black Friday:Even with Disney’s
Frozen 2
on the marquee and poised to do a record amount of business for the 5-day holiday with now$ 129 .7M, beatingHunger Games: Catching FireThanksgiving run record of $ 109 .9M, tickets sales for all titles on Thanksgiving were down an estimated – 16% with $ 35 .3M from last year $ 41. 96 M, which was the second best Thanksgiving of all-time. Black Friday, which is a very big day for moviegoing, is also expected to be off from a year ago by -7% with an estimated $ 77 .6M, from 2018 ‘s BF of $ 83 .3M. It’s funny, after this coming weekend and beforeStar Warsand Christmas, the box office ratchets down as many are distracted with holiday activities. But not today. They find time to shop and go to the movies. As a side note, Adoble Analytics says that $ 4.4 billion has already been spent in online shopping with $ 52 B shelled out since Nov. 1.The org predicts $ 143 .8B to be spent online by end of holiday season. The National Retail Federation projects a 4% uptick this year in holiday spending to about $ 730 B.
Frozen 2 ′s Thanksgiving totaled $ 14. 7M per Disney, which is the second best for any title on the holiday afterCatching Fire‘s $ 14 .9m. Note business yesterday didn’t fire up until the evening.
Lionsgate / MRC’sKnives Outis doing fantastic with a $ 6.2M Thursday, – 26%, but expected to surge today with $ (M – $) M. 5-day outlook is$ 44. 3M, which exceed’s MRC’s previous original titleBaby Driver‘s 5-day by 50%. Both pics have arguably similar production costs,Baby Driverwith $ (M andKnives Out (for $) M. Another win for original pics after the launch of Fox / Disney’sFord v. Ferrari,and Sony’sA Beautiful Day in the Neighborhoodisn’t looking too shabby, at this minute poised to come in ahead ofFord v Ferrarifor the 5-day.Knivesout continues to draw males at 52% with 73% of the audience over 25 and 46% over 35 years old. Diversity demos were 63% Caucasian, 14% Hispanic, 13% Asian / Other, & 10% African American. The Johnson ensemble played best on the coasts, especially in the West but was solid throughout.
Universal / Makeready / Bron’sQueen & Slimwhich was made for $ 17 M by Makeready and Bron before P&A, and reps a distribution deal for Uni, is seeing$ 15 .2Mby Sunday. Pic posted excellent exits with 5 stars on PostTrak and A- CinemaScore, but the movie’s ticket sales in regards to that are OK. Right now females at 58% are showing up, 63% under 35 and 61% between 18 – 35 years old. African Americans still lead sales at 59%, Caucasians at 23%, 9% Asian / Other, & 9% Hispanic.Queen & Slimplayed best on the East coast along with the South. Five of the top ten runs came out of the Atlanta market which is impressive I’m told.
Focus Features’Dark Watersexpanded from 4 theaters to 91 in its second week. The Todd Haynes directed drama made $ 130 K on Wednesday, $ 93 K on Thanksgiving and is seeing a $ (K weekend) 563%), and$ K5-day for a $ 1M take by EOD Sunday. NEON’sParasiteis expected to reach$ 18 .5Mby Sunday in its 8th week at 433 theaters. Fox Searchlight’sJojo Rabbitis also set to reach the same amount by Sunday after 7 weeks with current theater count at 730.
Top 6 pics:
- Frozen 2(Dis (Wed $) . 78 M / Thur $ 14 .7M / 3-day $ (M) – (%), 5-day $ 129 .7M, Cume $ 282 .3M / Wk 2
- Knives Out(LG / MRC) Wed $ 8. (M (includes $ 3.7M previews / sneaks) / Thur $ 6.2M / 3-day $ 29 .6M, 5-day and cume: $ 44 .3M / Wk 1
- Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood(Sony / Tri) Wed $ 2. 38 M / Thur $ 3.1M / 3-day 15 .5M ( 17 %%), 5-day $ 20. 96 M, cume $ 36 .7M / Wk 2
- Ford v Ferrari(20 th / Dis) Wed $ 2.9M / Thur $ 2.8M / 3-day $ 14 .7M (-6%), 5-day $ 20. (M, Cume $) 2M / Wk 3
- Queen & Slim(Uni / MakeReady / Bron) Wed $ 1.7M / Thur $ 2. (M / 3-day $) 1M, 5-day and cume $ 15 2M / Wk 1
- 21 Bridges (STX) Wed $ 1M / Thur $ 1m / 3-day $ 5.7m (- 38%), 5-day $ 7.9M, Cume: $ 18 .6M / Wk 2
3rd Update Thanksgiving AM:Disney’sFrozen 2made$ 23. 78 Myesterday making it the best Wednesday before Thanksgiving, bestingHunger Games: Catching Fire($) .8M), however,F2‘s Wednesday ranked second among all animated pics after the open ing day of Universal / Illumination’sDespicable Me 2($ (M) back in July 2013, and the second best for the month of November after Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’sMatrix Revolutionsopening day ($ 24 .3M (back in). . Also interesting to note thatFrozen 2is just $ 1.4M shy of whatAvengers: Endgamemade on its first Wednesday. Business happens tonight after everyone eats.Catching Firestill has the best Thanksgiving Day record with $ 14. 95 M per Comscore. GivenFrozen 2’s momentum in outstripping various daily B.O. records, no doubt it will score another high day today.
Last Thanksgiving all movies made $ 41. 96 M, the second best Turkey Day after 2009 ‘s record of $ M per Comscore. We’ll see ifFrozen 2assists in breaking that record as well. Black Friday is a huge moviegoing day in sync with everyone’s Christmas shopping. Business can surge as much as 100% over Thanksgiving. Last year Black Friday made $ 83 .3M, second behind 2013 ‘s $ 85 M record.
Knives OutandQueen & Slimboth won CinemaScore Wednesday audiences over with an A-. PostTrak forKnives Outis now at 4 1/2 stars and a 67% definite recommend, with updated demos being Males over 25 (37%), women over 25 (36%), males under 25 (15%) and women under 25 (12%). Older females and younger male love it the most at 87%. Diversity breakdown is (*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************% Caucasian, 14% Hispanic, 10% African American, and 9% Asians.
Queen & Slimreceived a perfect score of 5 stars on PostTrak, with a big 79% definite recommend. Females over (LED AT) %, then guys over (at 32%, females under 25 at 19 % and males under 25 at 10%. Guys under 25 love it at 100% followed by older females at 96% . African Americans showed up at (%, followed by) % Caucasians, 9% Hispanic and 5% Asians.
Updated Wednesday B.O. and forecasts are as follows:
- Frozen 2(Dis (Wed $) . 78 M , 3-day $ 100 .3M (- %), 5-day $ 142. 2M, Cume $ 294 .8M / Wk 2
- Knives Out(LG / MRC) Wed $ 8. M (includes $ 3.7M previews / sneaks), 3 -day $ 24 .7M, 5-day and cume: $ 38 5M / Wk 1
- Ford v Ferrari(20 th / Dis) Wed $ 2.9M, 3-day $ 15 .2M (-3 %), 5-day $ 21 1M, Cume $ 81 M / WK 3
- Queen & Slim(Uni / MakeReady / Bron) Wed $ 1.7M, 3-day $ 11 .2M, 5-day and cume $ 15 .3M / Wk 1
- Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood(Sony / Tri) Wed $ 2. 38 M, 3-day (**************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************. (2M) – 23%), 5-day $ 14 .7M, cume $ 29 .8M / Wk 2
- 21 Bridges(STX) Wed $ 1M, 3-day $ 5.9m (- 36%), 5-day $ 8.1M, Cume: $ 18. 4M / Wk 2
2nd Update Midday Wednesday:Another huge moviegoing day with Disney’sFrozen 2eyeing$ 23 5Mtoday, on its way to a$ 96 .3Msecond weekend (- 26%) and$ 135 4M5-day. Pic’s 10 – day running total will near $ 300 M, just $ 1M shy by Sunday. Five-days are always hard for many to project, so we’ll put an asterisk on that. What’s for certain is that Elsa and Anna will defeat Katniss (akaHunger Games: Catching Fire) for the Thanksgiving 5-day record for any holdover and opener, that 2013 sequel making $ 109 .9M per Comscore. Disney reported a $ 20. 79 M Tuesday forFrozen 2,still a November record, and third best for an animated pic on a Tuesday afterIncredibles 2($ (M) andFinding Dory($ 23 .1M).
Lionsgate / MRC’sKnives Outis in 2nd seeing$ 8.2Mfor today including its $ 3.7M previews and sneaks, a$ 24 .8m3-day, and a current five-day of$ 35 .4M.
Ford v Ferrariin weekend 3 places 3rd with$ 2.7Mtoday, a$ 4M (3-day (-8%) and a 5-day of$ (M) and running total of $ M.
Fourth place goes to Sony / TriStar’sA Beautiful Day in the Neighborhoodwith$ 2.3 Mtoday, $ 11. (M second weekend) – 10 %), 5-day of$ 16 .6Mand running 10 – day total of $ 33 .6M.
Fifth spot belongs to Universal / Makeready / Bron’sQueen & Slimwhich is seeing$ 2Mtoday sans previews,$ 12. 1M3-day, and$ 16 .8M5-day.
1st Update:Frozen 2Notches Best Tuesday in November with $ 20 M , Domestic at $ 164 M ,Knives OutNear $ 4M in Total Previews:In its fifth day of release, Disney’sFrozen 2scored the best Tuesday ever in November with an estimated$ 21 .M. This is after landing November’s best Monday with $ 12. 77 M reported by Disney yesterday. On both days, Anna and Elsa beat Lionsgate’sHunger Games: Catching Firewhich held previous November highs for Monday ($ 12. 3M) and Tuesday ($) . (M).
Among all animated movies,Frozen 2looks like it’s the third best Tuesday behindIncredibles 2($ (M) andFinding Dory($ 23 .1m). If Disney reports a lower figure than $ 20. 57 M, which is whatToy Story 4made on its Tuesday, thenFrozen 2is the fourth best Tuesday for a feature toon. Running tally forFrozen 2is at $ 164 .1m. By the end of Thanksgiving rival distrib sources believe the Jennifer Lee-Chris Buck sequel will stand at $ 200 M, with K – 12 Schools out today at 80%, colleges at 63% and everyone out on Thursday and Friday. Current second weekend forecast forFrozen 2stands at $ (M.)
Lionsgate’s previews last night for Rian Johnson’s Media Rights Capital movieKnives Outgrossed$ 1. (M) off shows that started at 7PM, raising its total preview cash including weekend sneak money to$ 3.7M. Pic opens in 3, 391 theaters today and expands to 3, 461 by Friday. Pic has a 96% certified fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes. Lionsgate will add the $ 3.7M previews and sneaks into today’s opening total. In early Screen Engine / Comscore PostTrak exits last night,Knives Outreceived 4 stars with a 66% definite recommend. Leading demos were men over 25 (41%), females over (36%), men under 25 (12%), and females under 25 (11%). Diversity demos were 61% Caucasian, Hispanic 12%, African Americans and Asians at 11%. Note these exits will fluctuate throughout the five day stretch.Knives Outcost $ 40 M before digital print and ad spend, with Lionsgate and MRC sharing a 50 / 50 exposure. Johnson and Ram Bergman’s T-Street producedKnives Out.
Universal / Makeready / Bron’sQueen & Slimdid not hold previews last night, rather opens today.
20 th Century Fox / Disney’sFord v Ferrariamong regular pics in release made$ 2.5Myesterday, 63% over Monday for a running total in week 2 of$ 62 M. Sony / TriStar’sA Beautiful Day in the Neighborhoodmade$ 2.3M (yesterday, ) % from Monday for a five-day of$ M. STX’s21 Bridgesdid $ 1.4M, 60% for a five-day of$ (*************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************. 5m. Paramount / Walden Media’sPlaying With Firewas 5th with an estimated$ 1M, 66% for a running total in week 3 of$ 33 .1m.The John Cena comedy is pacing 11% behind the Melrose Lot’sInstant Familyfrom last November in its first 12 days, that Mark Wahlberg-Rose Byrne movie finaling at $ .3M.
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