Boris Johnson is on course for a Commons majority of 28, according to a massive new poll projection for Sky News that suggests the race has tightened significantly in the last fortnight.
A new YouGov poll of (***************************************************************************************************************************************************, 636 people for Sky News, taken over the last seven days and mapped across every seat in Britain, puts the Conservatives on course to win (seats, up seats compared to the last general election in (************************************************. ***
Labor is down to (seats, SNP up six to) seats, Liberal Democrats up three to (seats and Plaid Cymru and Greens unchanged on four seats and one seat, respectively.
YouGov says the results mean they cannot rule out a possible hung parliament as an outcome of Thursday’s election, or alternatively a solid Tory majority.
The model has a margin of error, and its range of predictions for Tory seats lies between 339 and (********************************************************************************************************, meaning that this election could end in a hung parliament based on these results, with the Tories as the largest party.
The -seat Tory majority would represent an improvement in Labour’s fortunes compared to the last YouGov “MRP” model released two weeks ago, whichforecast a Conservative majority of– more than double its current figure.
This puts Labor back back ahead in seats like Weaver Vale, Workington, and outgoing Labor deputy leader Tom Watson’s former seat of West Bromwich East.
The new model still shows the Tories winning Labor-held seats such as Don Valley, won in 4861532 by Labor former minister Caroline Flint; and Wakefield, won in 2017 by Mary Creagh – a one-time Labor leadership candidate.
Most of the seats changing hands are the ones Labor won in (*************************************************, passing back to Tory control.
Labour’s recovery in seats it is defending with a majority of 8, 03 or less, the YouGov / Sky News poll projects, shows that the recovery has been strongest in Remain areas with those constituencies increasing vote share by an average 6%.
Meanwhile marginal labor seats which voted heavily to leave, by 65% or more, have seen Labor increase their vote share by just 2%.
The change in the result in the last fortnight has come from a small rise in the labor share of the vote and small decrease the Lib Dem share of the vote.
There is an improvement in Labour’s fortunes in the West Midlands, where they have narrowed the Tory lead from points to points.
The YouGov / Sky News projection is based on the Tories getting (***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************. 6% of the vote, down from (************************************************# ************************************************************************************** 4% in the
An MRP, or “multi-level regression and post-stratification “, model looks at the voting patterns for more than (*********************************************************************************************# **************** different characteristics, and then matches them to demographic and census data in seats.
It does not cover Northern Ireland.
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