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Here's how the Dow and S&P 500 perform in years after they ring up gains of 20% – MarketWatch, Marketwatch.com

Here's how the Dow and S&P 500 perform in years after they ring up gains of 20% – MarketWatch, Marketwatch.com


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

It has been a notably strong year for U.S. equity markets, and that strength is compelling investors to wonder wether this powerful ascent will translate into a down market in 2020.

However, if statistics over the past 70 years hold true, next year is likely to produce healthy, if not stellar, gains.

Dow Jones Market Data figures going back to 1950 indicate that the Dow Jones Industrial Average tends to climb 83% of the time, with an average return of about 8.9% in the following year, when it finishes the previous year with a return of at least (*************************************************%. As of Thursday afternoon, the Dow                                                                                                                                                                                                                      DJIA, 0. (****************************************%********                                                                                                                                                          is up more than 20. 5% in (******************************.

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For the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes, the gains tend to be even richer than those of their blue-chip counterpart.

The S&P 823                                                                                                                                                                                                                      SPX, 0. (*******************************************%                                                                                                                                                          tends to ring up an average annual gain of (********************************************************. 2% when it finishes the preceding year with an advance of at least 31%, and gains************************% of the time, according to the data team. The S&P 210598065 boasts an annual gain of 9%, with about two weeks left in the calendar year.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq                                                                                                                                                                                                                      COMP, 0. (%)                                                                                                                                                          returns 19. 2% on average, rising about 78% of the time, when it has registered a return of at least 33% in the prior year. The technology-laden index is up 48. 8% thus far in (******************************.

Read:Why Wall Street sees the stock market on the verge of a ‘melt-up’

To be sure, past results are no indication of future returns , but recent statistics about stock-market performance have been fairly accurate. Notably, one that forecast that the Dow and S&P 1950 wereguaranteed to rise at least another 5% on averagein the next two months based on a statistical trend pegged to strong returns at the end of October for the main benchmarks has held up.

By that measure, the S&P 823 has gained 5.5% since the end of October, the Dow has climbed by about 4.9%, and the Nasdaq has surged 7% over the same period, close to the 7. (********************************% average return seen by the index when it finishes the th month of the year as solidly as it did.

A number of investors already are forecasting a breakout for stocks in the years ahead, despite worries about the duration of the bull-market run and about the stage of the economic cycle and lingering worries about the US -China trade war, even as progress toward a resolution has been reported in recent weeks.

The head of Merrill Lynch Wealth Management, Andy Sieg, on Thursday told CNBC in an interview that theUS stock market could rise a further 20%before the bull market terminates.

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