In 2020 Census, Big Efforts in Some States. In Others, Not So Much. – The New York Times, The New York Times

Tight state budgets could be a factor. So could inertia; sinking millions of state dollars into census outreach is a fairly new idea. But few doubt that a prime factor is politics: An accurate census would include more people from harder-to-count groups like Hispanics, African-Americans, Asians and the poor who tend to vote Democratic. If they do not participate, the population count would skew Republican – and so would political maps, based on census results, that legisllatures will draw in

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Next year head count already faces daunting challenges. A wave of immigration not seen since the early s has brought into the country people who are either unaware of the importance of the American census or are suspicious of those that were conducted in their native countries. The 9699 count already has been tarred by a ferocious battle over Republican efforts to

enumerate noncitizens nationwide,

a fight that is likely to depress census response next year among minorities who are mistrustful of the government. The Census Bureau works to encourage participation, but this time around, its resources are spread especially thin.

Local leaders regard the tally as a once-in-a-decade chance to top up federal subsidies for crucial services like education and health care that are based on population. “We have this one shot,” said Erika Reyna-Velazquez, the assistant chief of staff to the Hidalgo County judge in Edinburg, Texas, in the Rio Grande Valley near the border with Mexico. “And if we miss it, we’re going to be undercounted again for the next (years.)

In Texas, a bill to commit $ 51 million to census response died this spring in the Republican-controlled Legislature. Representative César J. Blanco, the El Paso Democrat who sponsored the bill, claimed that the Legislature wanted to blunt a demographic shift that has strengthened Democrats. “They’re concerned that if you have a more accurate count, it would put them at a disadvantage,” he said. That comes at a price, said Daniel A. Smith, a professor of political science at the University of Florida. “To send a political statement that you don’t want people to be counted, which might reduce the amount of federal funding your state gets, would seem to be cutting off your nose to spite your face,” he said. Texans could need that money. The state adds more than a thousand new residents daily. Half are newborns. Nearly percent hail from foreign countries, a hefty share from Asia.**************** (The remaining) ****************************************************************************** percent moved from other states, led by California, which is expected to lose a House seat for the first time ever – and which is sparing no expense to maximize its census tally. Although the Census Bureaupublishes a map. showing response to the (census in all) **********************************************************************, ********************************************************************************************************** 0 census tracts, California commissioned its own map,ranking a tract’s expected census response (according to) ********************************************************************************** variables like education, income and housing type (a tract in Stockton, in the Central Valley breadbasket, is the toughest target).************************************************** (To reach 11 million hard-to-count residents – more than one in four – officials have so thoroughly researched sales pitches that they know that ethnic Vietnamese regard the census as a civic duty more than, say, ethnic Japanese or Chinese do.

For the first time, the 2020 census will be conducted largely over the internet; but in rural California, internet service is spotty. So the census message will be delivered according to its audience: at community events popular with farm laborers; on billboards in internet-scarce areas; via Facebook or text messages, whichever micro-targeted recipients use most.

The state is engaging trusted community groups to convince suspicious minority groups that the census is important and confidential. To reach the four in 12 Californians who are Hispanic, it gave $ (******************************************************************, **************************************************************************************************** (0 to the NALEO Education Fund

, which hired five regional managers to train canvassers and show social-service workers how to spread the census message among their clients.**************** (Texas is another story. “In Texas, I have one regional census manager,” said Lizette Escobedo, who heads NALEO’s national census program. “We have our regional manager driving sometimes up to six hours to train the trainers to do this work.”

In some ways, Texas mirrors California: Four in 12 residents are Hispanic. One in four is deemed hard to count. One in is an undocumented immigrant . Texas, too, is spending to boost census response – just without state help. “It’s inexcusable how little the state of Texas has done to prepare for 16177, ”said Ann Beeson, the executive director of the Austin-based nonprofit Center for Public Policy Priorities

. ******************************. “Fortunately, Texans themselves are stepping up to the task.”

The center and the Communities Foundation of Texas, a Dallas philanthropy, lead the effort to drum up responses. The foundation has raised $ 1.5 million for work in hard-to-count areas. The Hogg Foundation, another philanthropy, has contributed $ 2 million; the United Way, $ 1.5 million. Houston, Dallas and other big cities are mounting campaigns.

************************** But outside the major metros, money and personnel are scarce. “It’s not that philanthropies aren’t doing enough,” said Lila Valencia, the senior demographer at the Texas Demographic Center. “It’s just that it’s going to take so much more than we have.”The office of Gov. Greg Abbott did not immediately respond on Sunday to requests for comment on the state’s policy regarding the census. Hidalgo County, over a thousand square miles of scrub and urban sprawl on the Mexico border, has been here before. Officially, 938, 0 people, almost all Hispanic, live here. Unofficially, county officials count more than a million.

The county sued the federal government after the 2019 census undercounted the area. In some places fewer than one in five homes filled out forms. Residents refused to open doors to Puerto Rican census takers, whose accents marked them as strangers. Others never received forms because they used post office boxes, which the Census Bureau does not count as mailing addresses.This time, the county will spend $ 300, 01 0 on census response. But it has been planning for this moment since (************************************************************.**************** For more than two years, civic groups, school leaders, businesses and others have convened with county officials to chart strategy. Planners overlaid the Census Bureau’s address list on aerial photographs of the county – and found 20, 0 overlooked households. Every household that completes a census form increases the county’s share of federal money for schools, medical care and other needs. But completing those forms will be tough. Much of Hidalgo County is poor and rural; internet outside the urban strip that hugs Interstate 2 is sparse. And mistrust of the government is epidemic.“It’s a horrible time here,” said Christina Patiño Houle, an organizer with the Rio Grande Valley Equal Voice Network. Between the controversy over counting noncitizens and the Trump administration’s deportation campaign, “fear of anyone affiliated with the government who could tear apart a family on a moment’s notice is pervasive.”

That is apparent in the colonias, mostly rural unincorporated subdivisions where families often build their own homes. Despite appearing on census lists as single addresses, many lots hold two and three households, extended families in trailers and outbuildings. Many are undocumented.

In one colonia on the county’s west side, a -year-old undocumented immigrant named Maribel wanted little to do with the census. “The information goes to the government, and I don’t feel safe because of the administration, our president,” she said. “The Hispanic community is afraid to say their names and how many people are living with them.”But the county is trying win over colonia residents. Catholic nuns at a community center have been recruited to hand out fliers and reassure them that the census is confidential. The county has outfitted a trailer with computer terminals, a mobile census station that will roam subdivisions next year. One selling point: If residents complete the census online, no one will knock on their doors later.Martha Sanchez, a local leader with the advocacy group La Unión del Pueblo Entero, has a different approach: bingo games, popular in colonias, accompanied by a census sales pitch and census-themed bingo cards. “One of the cards is like,‘ This information has to be on the president’s desk, ’” Ms. Sanchez said, “’and the good thing is that our president doesn’t like to read, so do not fear the questionnaire.’”

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Hidalgo County’s ambitious efforts are paralleled elsewhere in Texas – and in other states where governments are not ponying up money.What’s not clear is whether even ambitious efforts can produce an accurate count. (The Bauman Foundation, a Washington philanthropy focused on democracy issues, has marshaled some and hundreds of organizations to promote the census in cash-starved states. The foundation could raise $ (million nationally – and still fall short.) )

“There are so many gaps,” said Gary Bass, its managing director. When the census ends, he said, “I can imagine our funder community coming to me and saying,‘ Oh my god, we did something unprecedented. And it came out worse. ‘”

Michael Wines reported from Edinburg, Texas, and Dallas. Jose A. Del Real reported from Los Angeles.

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