- The president of Eurasia Group says it’s impossible not to call the Iran conflict a “win” for Donald Trump.
- US-Iran hostilities may just be distracting investors from a greater threat.
- Unfortunately for stock market bulls, that threat could get much worse in (****************************************************************************************.
With“World War 3” trending on TwitterandGoogle searches for “draft age” spiking, you’d be forgiven for believing that the fallout from the sudden surge in US-Iran hostilities is the greatest threat facing the stock market in (****************************************************************************************.
But according to at least one geopolitical analyst, Iran may just be a smokescreen distracting you from the real danger hanging over markets: the US-China trade war.
Ana lyst: Trump Played the Iran Gambit Perfectly
Ian Bremmer, the president of political research firm Eurasia Group, said today that the US-Iran conflict has so far played out perfectly for President Donald Trump.
Much like he bullied Mexico into strengthening border security, Trump responded to provocations from a weak country – Iran – with a “massive escalation.”
**********************Source:Twitter
After the
It’s telling thatIranian state media lied that the missiles killed 80 Americans, when – at least according to Western sources – no US personnel died in the attacks.Most likely by design.
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Having “established red-lines and deterrence” by killing Soleimani, Bremmer says the Trump administration can pursue a diplomatic resolution to hostilities that began when the US pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal.
That’s precisely what Trump appears to be doing, first with his unexpectedly tranquil reactionto last night’s attacks, and then with his formal response on Wednesday morning. After castigating the Obama-era nuclear deal, the president expressed an openness to negotiating a new agreement with Iran:
We must all work together toward making a deal with Iran that makes the world a safer and more peaceful. place.
Why (*************************************the US-Iran Conflict Isn’t a Major Threat to the Stock Market
(**************************************** The stock market rallied aggressively after Trump took a dovish tone on future engagements with Iran. | Source: Yahoo Finance
The stock market
This chart from CFRA and LPL Research demonstrates that although the stock market sways wildly in response to geopolitical risk events, it usually bottoms out within a month – if not sooner.
(**********************************************
So even if Bremmer’s wrong, and Trump’s Iran strategy blows up in his Face, it doesn’t sound like investors have too much to fear other than a few months of extraordinary stock market volatility. Anything to fear from (Iran,anyway.
Unfortunately for equities bulls, the return to “normalcy” in Middle East geopolitics – whatever normalcy means in that region of the world – could only shift the focus back to the (real) ************************************************** threat to the stock market.
The threat that it has faced all along.
China.
(Why the US-China Trade War) ************************************************* (Is) ************************************************ a Threat to the Stock Market ()
After dominating headlines for more than a year, the trade war has become less trendy now that the two countries have struck a limited trade deal. It could fade even further into the background
Tensions continue to fester beneath the surface, though. Analysts have warned that the “phase one” deal does not address structural imbalancesin US-China trade. Trump launched the conflict after vowing that he wouldn’t slap another bandaid on disputes between Washington and Beijing.Then he did just that.
according to Bremmer , investors should “expect US-China relations to get significantly worse this year,” and unlike with Tehran, he (won’t
(******************************************** **************************************************** (Source: (Twitter*******************
Eurasia Group ranks US-China conflicts as the second and third biggest geopolitica l threats of
, trailing only the US presidential election. They frame the feud as a “clash of values” rather than an economic dispute:
Divergences between the two countries’ political structures are bringing irreconcilable differences to the fore. Thus, the US-China rivalry will locate be waged as a clash of values and animated by patriotic fervor.
The trade deal prevented the stock market’s outlook from continuing to worsen, but it also loaded equities with substantial downside risk- and little upside momentum – as investors seek to extend the bull run into a second decade.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article do not represent investment or trading advice from CCN.com
(this article was edited by (Sam Bourgi) ******************************************************************. ************************************************
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