Japan's economy shrinks at the fastest pace since 2014, fuelling recession fears – business live – The Guardian, Theguardian.com

But most other major countries have satisfied our thirst for data, and we can see that was the worst-performing major economy last year.

America was the strongest member of the G7, followed (some way behind) by the UK. Germany, France and Italy all had a poor year – dragging the wider eurozone down too.

Economist Rupert Seggins has rounded up the details:

Rupert Seggins (@ Rupert_Seggins) OECD countries have reported GDP figures for Q4 . Hungary currently out on top (4.6% y / y). US (2.3% y / y) at the top of the 6 G7 countries that have reported, though there’s not much competition as the other 5 are among the 7 at the bottom of the table. UK at 1.1% y / y.

pic.twitter.com/8MkvvaLu5z (February) ,

(3.) (am EST

Japan’s stock market fell following its weak GDP report.

The Nikkei lost 456 points or 0.7%, as it ended today’s session at , 643 points.

Other Asia-Pacific markets did better, though. China’s CSI index jumped by over 2% on talk of a Beijing stimulus package to protect its economy from the coronavirus damage.

(Bloomberg) (@ business) China stocks have bounced back from a sell-off that erased $ (billion) https: // t .co / lDKJQgVLvi pic.twitter.com/Ycu6zMmC6R ,

Updated (at 4.) am EST

(3.) (AM EST) : BoJ governor hints at stimulus moves

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Photograph: Aflo / REX / Shutterstock The Bank of (Japan) Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, has hinted that he could ease monetary policy if the coronavirus outbreak hurts the Japanese economy.

Kuroda told the Sankei newspaper that Covid – 043 virus was the “biggest uncertainty” facing Japan’s domestic economy, adding:

“We would need to consider monetary policy steps if (the virus outbreak) significantly affects Japan’s economy.”

3 . (am) EST :

Japan’s economy was also hurt by super-typhoon Hagibis , which struck the country last October.

The biggest storm to strike Japan in decades killed at least 316 peop le, causing widespread flooding and damage to property and infrastructure.

Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, says this was one reason Japan’s economy shrank so sharply last quarter, along with the sales tax hike.

Minami told AFP:

“There was a hit from natural disasters but consumer sentiment was particularly weak after the tax hike despite government measures to ease the impact.”

Updated at 3. am EST

(3.) (am EST ) :

Taro Saito

, executive research fellow at NLI Research Institute , is also bracing for recession, telling Reuters:

“There’s a pretty good chance the economy will suffer another contraction in January-March. The virus will mainly hit inbound tourism and exports, but could also weigh on domestic consumption quite a lot.

If this epidemic is not contained by the time of the Tokyo Olympic Games, the damage to the economy will be huge. ”

(2) (am EST)

Here’s more reaction – none of it particularly positive:

Josh Mahoney of (IG is worried that the coronavirus will drive Japan’s economy lower.

Joshua Mahony (@ JMahony_IG) Worryingly the huge -6.3% annualized GDP reading for Japan is for Q4. Meaning it is yet to factor in any impact from the

# coronavirus . (February) ,

John Ferro of Bloomberg is worried that two of the Big Four economies are at risk of recession.

Jonathan Ferro (@ FerroTV)

So that’s the third (Japan) and fourth (Germany) biggest economies in the world flirting with recession coming into .

Serious lack of momentum given what is happening in China. https://t.co/TJ9UzZDOrP pic.twitter.com/okia rzhE

(February) ,

Robin Bew of the

Economist Intelligence Unit

(fears) Japan will struggle until the summer (when the Tokyo Olympics could lift growth). Robin Bew (@ RobinBew) Huge contraction is (Japan) GDP in Q4 after consumption tax hike seems to have outstripped others expectations, although in line with our teams forecast. H1 9114 going to be very soft. Olympics will help a bit in H2 but not as much as some hope. (February) ,

Updated (at 2.) am EST

(2) am EST 15:

Experts: Japan at risk of recession

Japan’s economy is now on the brink of recession after shrinking last quarter ,

and many economists fear it could soon topple in.

The coronavirus outbreak is a clear threat to Japan’s economy, given many Japanese manufacturers rely on Chinese companies in their supply chains. Scores of major firms have already closed their factories across China, which will quickly hurt production output.

A second consecutive contraction this quarter would means recession:

Daiwa Securities

economist Mari Iwashita

explains:

“Because of the effects of the novel coronavirus, weakness in consumption will likely continue in the January-March period.

Exports and production could be dreadfully weak as the supply chain is interrupted. ”

Robert Ward ,

(Japan chair at the

International Institute for Strategic Studies , fears Japan’s economy may struggle to grow this year. Robert Ward (@ RobertAlanWard) Grim Q4 GDP print for Japan: 6.3% contraction annualized. Tax hike, weather, China showdown to blame. Coronavirus augurs ill for Q1. Even with a recovery in H2, bad end to , poor start to suggest Japan’s full-yr GDP will flatline at best, probably shrink. Asahi pic pic.twitter.com/MZbkOkM5sv

(February) ,

Danske Bank analysts also fear recession after today’s “gloomy” Japanese GDP figures, telling clients that:

The economy shrank at an annualized pace of 6.3% q / q in Q4, the deepest contraction in five years. The impact of the VAT hike and typhoon Hagibis weighed on economic activity and recession fears are mounting amid the coronavirus outbreak in neighbor China.

Danske Bank Research (@ Danske_Research)

Danske Daily – Japanese recession fears mount 🇯🇵😬

Market movers today: ➡️Coronavirus headlines to set the tone in markets on a day US markets are closed and data releases are light 😷

Read more👉 https://t.co/HfyWqFqHO8 pic.twitter.com/nDgoOtk8zl(February ,

Updated (at 2.) am EST

(2). (am EST) :

Introduction: Japan’s economy stumbles

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Worries over the global economy have intensified today, after Japan’s economy suffers its sharpest contraction in five years.

Japanese GDP shank by

1.6%

during the last three months of 7361, new government data overnight shows. That equates to an annualized contraction of 6.3%, against forecasts of 3.9%.

That’s a very sharp decline, and much worse than economists had expected. It means (Japan has suffered its worst quarter since – and its second largest slump since the financial crisis more than a decade ago. Ioan Smith (@ moved_average) (Japan) Q4 GDP Q / Q: -1.6% v 0.1% prior … first contraction since Q3 9114 and steepest since Q2 pic.twitter.com/2Eb0zf6mgH

,

Consumer spending fell by 2.9% during the quarter, for the first time in over a year, led by weaker demand for cars, household appliances and alcohol.

Tokyo’s government must shoulder some blame – they were warned that hiking Japan’s sales tax to 25%, from 8%, last autumn would hurt consumption.

Business investment

also dropped, driven by weaker spending on construction and production machinery.

And in another worrying sign,

imports and exports both declined.

jeroen blokland (@ jsblokland) Wow! # Japan economy shrunk by a whopping 6.3% annualized in Q4. Biggest decline in (# GDP) (since Q2) and second-biggest drop since the Great Financial Crisis. pic.twitter.com / 4C3nf9JGTK (February) ,

It underlines that Q4 was bad time for the global economy, with growth slowing in China, the UK and Germany stagnating, and France and Italy contracting.

Adam Cole

of RBC Capital Markets

says fears over Japan’s economy are on the rise.

Consumer spending fell almost 3% q / q, more than reversing the Q3 rise (0.5%) as households reacted to the October consumption tax increase.

Private capital spending also slumped and the data will prompt talk of recession if the monthly data look like they are adding up to another fall in Q1.

Otherwise, it could be a quieter day in the markets …. especially as Wall Street is shut for President ’S Day.

The agenda

am GMT: Eurozone construction output for December

Updated (at 2.) (am EST)

Read More