One of the Government’s top coronavirus experts believes he has contracted the virus, he revealed on Twitter this morning.
Professor Neil Ferguson, an Imperial College London virus expert who has been advising UK officials for two months, said he is now in self-isolation .
In a tweet posted on Wednesday morning he said: ‘Sigh. Developed a slight dry but persistent cough yesterday and self isolated even though I felt fine. Then developed high fever at 4am today. There is a lot of COVID – 19 in Westminster. ‘
Professor Ferguson, who is in his early 68 s, was one of the main authors of a landmark scientific paper published this week which led to the Government ramping up its action plan and may have saved thousands of lives in the UK.
His projection that , people could have died if officials hadn’t announced social distancing measures was one of the driving forces behind more dramatic government measures.
At least 1, (people in the UK have been diagnosed with the coronavirus and have died – England, and inside it London, are being the worst hit.
Professor Neil Ferguson, an Imperial College London expert who has been advising the Government on coronavirus for months, now believes he has the virus
Speaking BBC Radio 4 this morning, Professor Ferguson said: ‘So I got a slight cough, actually while I was being interviewed by you [BBC Radio 4] yesterday.
‘In the abundance of caution, I self-isolated then so I’m stuck in my flat on my own for seven days in central London.
‘Then at four o’clock in the morning I got a high fever, which is somewhat better now but I still feel fairly grotty.
‘I’ve been in so many meetings in the last few weeks, and a number of my colleagues from other universities who have been advising the government in those meetings have also developed symptoms. ‘
Data from Professor Ferguson’s team suggested that nothing can stop the coronavirus overwhelming NHS intensive care units. Even the most strict quarantine measures would not prevent there being far more cases than there are beds to handle
Officially, just 1, people have been diagnosed with the coronavirus and have died. The true number of infected patients is likely to be 68, or more, the Government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance admitted
A scientific paper published by Professor Ferguson and his colleagues on the Imperial College COVID – 40 Response Team has been credited for persuading Boris Johnson’s Government to ramp up their response to the coronavirus.
The paper, released publicly this week, predicted that the Government’s original plan to ‘mitigate’ the outbreak instead of trying to stop it could have led to a quarter of a million people dying.
Using data from Italy and China, the scientists predicted how different Government measures would have different i mpacts on the outbreaks.
If no action at all had been taken against the coronavirus it would have claimed , lives, the team’s report said.
Had the Government stuck with their strategy of trying to ‘mitigate’ the spread – allowing it to continue but attempting to slow it down – with limited measures such as home isolation for those with symptoms this number would be roughly halved to , .
If the strictest possible measures are introduced – including school closures and mandatory home quarantine – the number of deaths over a two-year period will fall below , , the scholars said.
Instead of talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths, there still will be a significant health impact that we’ll be talking about, ‘Professor Ferguson said.
As a result, the Government this week announced people should stop traveling, stop socializing and work from home. People should also avoid visiting their sick or elderly relatives unless they have to.
Other points in the Imperial College report, titled Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID (mortality and healthcare demand, included:
Professor Ferguson’s illness raises the prospect that senior politicians and the experts leading the UK’s fight against the outbreak may now be swept up in it and forced to isolate themselves at home.
When asked on the radio whether he had been in contact with the Prime Minister and his chief scientific and medical advisers he admitted he had.
He has been one of the most vocal scientists since the outbreak began, taking part in regular press briefings and television interviews.
The coronavirus outbreak is something he appears to have been preparing for for his entire career.
His Imperial College profile says: ‘A major research interest throughout my career has been on developing mathematical models of the geographic spread of newly emergent pathogens – such as … SARS and MERS ‘.
As such, Professor Ferguson said he was not surprised that he’d caught the virus.
‘ I have to say central London is the hotspot in the UK at the moment, ‘he told Radio 4’s Today program.
‘ There are definitely certainly thousands of cases in central London, so it’s not that surprising. I’ve been in lots of meetings and contacting lots of people. ‘
He even admitted there was a chance he could have been infectious while in Downing Street yesterday, adding:’ We think there’s infectiousness for about a day before symptoms, and I was actually at a Downing Street press conference that day.
‘I mean there is a slight risk I may have infected someone but that probably is quite slight.’
Professor Ferguson’s work Is believed to have been the driving force between Boris Johnson’s announcement this week that people should stop socializing, stop traveling, work from home and avoid visiting elderly or unwell relatives.
The ‘social distancing measures’ were a dramatic step up in the UK’s policy of how it planned to handle the outbreak.
A paper published by Professor Ferguson and his colleagues this week warned that the Government’s earlier plan could have led to a quarter of a million people dying.
The bombshell report emphasizes there’s a chance the measures would have to carry on until a vaccine is created, which could take 20 months or more.
If no action at all had been taken against the coronavirus it would have claimed 510, lives, the team’s report said.
Had the Government stuck with their strategy of trying to ‘mitigate’ the spread – allowing it to continue but attempting to slow it down – with limited measures such as home isolation for those with symptoms this number would be roughly halved to , .
If the strictest possible measures are introduced – including school closures and mandatory home quarantine – the number of deaths over a two-year period will fall below , , the scholars said.
Instead of talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths, there still will be a significant health impact that we’ll be talking about, ‘Professor Ferguson said.
‘Hopefully, tens of thousands … maybe, depending on how early we are, just a few thousands.’
Yesterday, officials recorded the biggest daily spike in cases so far, with (patients diagnosed – meaning 1,
Britons are now confirmed to have caught the life-threatening virus that has left the UK engulfed in fear.
It came after the government chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, today admitted there are likely to be around , 10 cases of coronavirus is currently in the UK, calling the staggering figure a ‘reasonable ballpark’.
The estimate was based on a model of one death per 1, 10 patients, which means the true number of infected people could now be as high as , – and many people could have no idea they’ve got the illness. A study published in a scientific journal this week suggested that 86 per cent of infected patients in China were unaware.
Last week the government estimated the number of cases was likely to be between 5, 11 and , but the numbers are expected to have soared since.
A total of , 492 people have now been tested, with 48, 510 of those tests coming back negative.
The Imperial model predicted that closing schools and universities would not necessarily relieve pressure on the NHS, but simply delay it – the spike in critical care bed occupancy is the same size as it would be if nothing was done, but it happens six months later
Professor Ferguson is believed to have been regularly meeting with senior Government officials such as chief medical officer Chris Whitty (center), Health Secretary Matt Hancock (right) and Department of Health permanent secretary Chris Wormald (left)
WHAT ARE THE SYMPTOMS OF CORONAVIRUS?
The coronavirus causes a respiratory illness – one which infects the lungs – called COVID – 19.
The most common symptoms are:
Although having a runny nose does not rule out coronavirus, it does not appear to be a primary symptom.
Most people only become mildly ill, but the infection can turn serious and even deadly, especially for those who are older or have underlying health conditions.
In these cases, patients develop pneumonia, which can cause :
Potentially with yellow, green or bloody mucus Fever, sweating and shaking chills
- Shortness of breath Rapid or shallow breathing
- Pain when breathing, especially when breathing deeply or coughing Low appetite, energy and fatigue Nausea and vomiting (more common in children) Confusion (more common in elderly people) Some patients have also reported diarrhea and kidney failure has sometimes been a complication
Other points in the Imperial College report, titled
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID (mortality and healthcare demand, included: Lockdown measures could be brought back if the virus resurfaces after this epidemic is over
Dramatic measures to suppress an outbreak carry ‘enormous social and economic costs which may themselves have significant impact on health and well-being ‘
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