Live Updates Ahead of Tonight’s Democratic Debate – The New York Times, The New York Times

A debate can make or break a campaign

Each of the 12 candidates onstage tonight will be looking for standout moments. But if history is a guide, avoiding the wrong kind of standout moment may be even more important. However superficial it may be, a gaffe at a debate can destroy a campaign, as New York Times political reporters explored in a video today. Just look at Rick Perry’s “oops” moment in 2011, when he forgot the name of the third government agency he promised to eliminate as president, or Gerald Ford misspeaking in 1976 and saying Russia did not have influence in Eastern Europe. That moment was especially devastating for Ford because it played directly into an image many voters already had of him.

Occasionally, candidates can give themselves a boost or take out an opponent in one fell swoop. But more often, even the most well-placed attack will hurt the target more than it helps the attacker. Take Chris Christie, who went after Marco Rubio in 2016 for using canned lines. Mr. Rubio was badly wounded, but the Christie campaign went nowhere. It’s one more piece of evidence that when the points are tallied at the end of the night, voters may be swayed more by who lost than who won.

Hunter Biden tells his side of the story

Much of the discussion here in Ohio Tuesday has been about theinterview that ABC broadcast this morningof Mr. Biden’s son, Hunter Biden. The younger Biden acknowledged “poor judgment” in working for a Ukrainian energy company while his father was vice president, but said he had done nothing wrong.

The interview drew predictable wrath from Republicans aligned with President Trump – many of whom are the children of powerful officials even though they denigrated the Bidens with charges of nepotism. But so far Mr. Biden’s fellow Democrats have steered clear of the issue.

When the topic comes up during tonight’s debate, expect Mr . Biden’s onstage rivals to jump to his defense. Mr. Buttigieg did so Sunday, saying Hunter Biden was being held to “different standards” than the Trump children, who are engaged in their own international business dealings. Mr. Biden responded by calling Mr. Buttigieg “a good man.”

There will likely be more of that sentiment tonight. Democratic voters have shown little tolerance for their candidates echoing Trump’s attacks – nobody running has questioned Warren’s claims of Native American heritage. So when the inevitable moderator question about Mr. Biden’s son happens tonight, it may serve as a kumbaya moment

In Ohio, it’s personal

Dozens of Ohio’s Democratic leaders have gathered in and around the state capital in advance of the debate, and they are thinking well past tonight: Can the party’s eventual presidential nominee carry the state next year?

This is a state that has long prized its status as one of the premier presidential battlegrounds: Every winning candidate since 1960, has carried Ohio. But the truth is, Ohio has long been slightly more conservative than what approximates the national median. And as the two parties increasingly realign along educational lines, this heavily working-class state has become even more red.

For evidence, look no further than President Trump’s eight-point victory over Hillary Clinton in Ohio in 2016 – a margin that was higher than in some states where Mrs. Clinton did not stump in the final weekend of the election, as she did in Ohio. Publicly, of course, Ohio’s leading Democrats insist that they can put the state back in their column in 2020. Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who considered seeking the nomination, emailed a memo to the media this week extolling the state’s “crucial role on the national stage,” reciting the state’s history as a bellwether with the not-so-subtle header: “As Goes Ohio. ”

Yet in private conversations, Ohio Democrats are less confident about their prospects next year. They acknowledge other states will be more competitive and important to their nominee. However, these same Democrats are quick to add that they may reclaim the state if – and it’s a big if – they have the right nominee.

It is, in other words, the same debate Democrats are having nationally. Except here, in a state that has produced seven presidents and claims paternity over electing even more, it’s personal.

What challenges will Elizabeth Warren face tonight?

Senator Elizabeth Warren enters the debate with her campaign on the rise. She now rivals Biden atop national polls, and she raised significantly more money than he did in the past three months (though she narrowly trailed Senator Bernie Sanders for the largest haul in the field). Ms. Ms. Warren has offered crisp performances on the debate stage so far this year, and when she answers questions, she is particularly adept at sticking to the messages that animate her campaign – which revolves around the need for “big, structural change.”

There is no reason to expect she will depart from that approach at tonight’s debate. More than ever, though, Ms. Warren stands as a prime target for her rivals, given her strength in the race. She has already been jabbed over her support of “Medicare for all” and her refusal to address whether she would raise taxes on the middle class to help finance such a health care system. But going after Ms. Warren, who is highly popular among Democratic voters, is also a dangerous move for other candidates, as voters may not be keen to reward negative attacks within the Democratic field.

Expect optimism and an energetic performance from Bernie Sanders

When Senator Bernie Sanders takes the stage tonight, it will have been exactly two weeks since he suffered a heart attack while campaigning in Las Vegas. Since then, he has been recuperating, first at the hospital and then at his home in Burlington, Vt. Beyond brief interviews with reporters, a handful of sit-down interviews with television networks at his home and an appearance by live-stream at a union forum in Iowa, Mr. Sanders has remained out of public view and off the campaign trail.

Shortly before 3 p.m. on Tuesday, Mr. Sanders did a walk-through of the debate stage with his wife, Jane Sanders. There were lots of smiles as he fiddled with his microphone and peered at the lights and cameras.

Mr. Sanders’s campaign is highly optimistic about his performance at the debate, saying viewers should expect him to appear as energetic as ever and to rebuff questions about whether he will be physically able to withstand an event that is grueling for any candidate, let alone one with recent health issues. But his team also allowed that his health and appearance will be under intense scrutiny, and it is expecting him to be asked by the moderators to address the topic onstage.

In terms of his message, his team does not expect him to crack a joke about his heart attack (though anything is possible) but viewers can expect him to continue to push for his “ Medicare for all ”health care system and advocate for the working class.

Tom Steyer makes his debut

While there are a handful of candidates for whom October is likely their last appearance at a national debate, given the Democratic National Committee’s higher polling requirements in November and beyond, one man will be making his national debut: Tom Steyer.

Mr. Steyer, the billionaire businessman who lives in the San Francisco Bay Area, is nonetheless a familiar face to millions of Americans because of his self-funded advertising campaigns: first his blitz calling for the impeachment of Mr. Trump and, more recently, his aggressive campaigning in the early-voting states, where he is by far the largest television advertiser.

Mr. Steyer could surprise some viewers. While he comes from the wealthy class that Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren have staked their campaigns railing against, Mr. Steyer actually aligns with those two leading liberals on many issues, including support for a “wealth tax” on the assets of the superrich. He is running as an outsider and is passionate in particular about climate change, a space less filled since Gov.

One particular thing to watch for: Mr. Jay Inslee dropped out of the race. Steyer has a favorite red plaid tie that has made even his friends and allies groan about occasionally. The Christmas-like color scheme could make a distinct first impression in October.

Can Pete Buttigieg show he’s worth the money?

As the mayor of South Bend, Ind. Buttigieg has been the breakout Democratic star of the 2020 campaign. Virtually unknown in January, he collected the most money in the campaign’s second fund-raising quarter and trailed only Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren in the third quarter. Yet he’s still mired far back in most polls.

During the first two debates, Mr. Buttigieg delivered credible if milquetoast performances. Now is his chance to springboard into the campaign’s top tier – his footprint of field offices, the largest in the race, could serve to propel him in the early states with a winning debate performance.

But what does such a performance look like for Mr. Buttigieg? So far in the campaign he’s tiptoed into conflicts with Mr. Biden, Ms. Warren, Mr. Sanders and former Representative Beto O’Rourke without a prolonged engagement with any of them. Mr. Buttigieg and his team believe he’s best when he’s not forced to contrast himself with anyone but Mr. Trump, an audacious position for a 37 – year-old who in his mayoral election won just 8, 515 votes .

Tulsi Gabbard vs. the media

One sure bet tonight: Tulsi Gabbard will attack the media.

Since Thursday, Ms . Gabbard, the Hawaii congresswoman, has threatened to boycott the debate, which she claimed was “rigged” by the Democratic National Committee and the “corporate media.” Then Monday she told supporters in a brief message that she “will be attending the debate, ”without providing further explanation.

In between, her team sent a handful of fund-raising emails and tweets, attacking The Times for what it called a “smear piece ”detailing her support from prominent conservatives from racist corners of the internet.

“The corporate media elite do not get to cast our broad and diverse movement of patriots, parents, students, veterans, teachers, nurses, volunteers, soldiers and ordinary Americans – as deplorables, ”Ms.

Tuesday’s debate may be Ms. Gabbard’s team wrote Monday. Gabbard’s last time on a presidential debate stage, so she’s going to want to make it count. Being the only candidate onstage at war with the moderators is one surefire way to stand out in the crowd.

Maggie Astor, Thomas Kaplan and Jonathan Martin contributed reporting.