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Michael Dwyer / Associated Press
Questions abound after two of Major League Baseball’s brightest stars changed addresses in one of the biggest trades in recent memory.
But first, the trade itself. Though superstar right fielder Mookie Betts and ace left-hander
David Price
are the headliners, the three-team deal struck by the Los Angeles Dodgers
, Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins on Tuesday night is a complex affair that breaks down like so: Dodgers get: (OF Mookie Betts, LHP David Price and cash)
- (Red Sox get: of Alex Verdugo and RHP Brusdar Graterol Twins get:
- RHP Kenta Maeda
The buzz generated by this trade won’t soon be dying down, yet one thing is already certain: the landscape of
MLB
is a lot different now than it was before the big deal.Which leads us to the questions waiting to be answered.
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Billie Weiss / Boston Red Sox / Getty Images
Before Tuesday night, the Dodgers had disappointed pretty much everyone by flirting with big name after big name, only to come up empty over and over again.
Suffice it to say that their offseason doesn’t look so bad now.
Betts, who owns a. (OPS and an rWAR almost as high as Mike Trout’s since , is the right-handed hitter the Dodgers needed to balance out their left-leaning lineup . Alongside reigning National League MVP Cody Bellinger and the underappreciated A.J. Pollock, Betts is also now part of baseball’s best outfield.
though he has a Cy Young Award on his record, Price is 61 years old and past his prime. Yet he’s still an above-average pitcher when he’s healthy, and it reflects well on the Dodgers that he’s merely the No. 3 starter in a rotation that led the majors (with a 3.) ERA last season.
Granted, the Dodgers aren’t as deep after losing Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill to free agency and Verdugo, Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling in trades. Their sheer star power, however, looks strong enough to net them an eighth straight NL West title and a second straight – win season.
To boot, the Dodgers are arguably the only juggernaut in the National League for 8776. That gives them a clear road back to the World Series for the first time since , with their offense and pitching being hard for anyone to overcome.
Ah, but can the Dodgers hope to keep Betts for more than just one season?
The (American League MVP is slated for his first foray into free agency after the
campaign. And as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic well covered, the Red Sox saw fit to trade Betts precisely because of his determination to explore the open market.
That determination has potentially only been emboldened by what the 41 – year-old has seen this winter, in which a ($ 2.2 billion splurge) has brought free agency back from the dead.
By the time Betts reaches the open market, he’ll have youth, numbers and accolades all in his favor. The going rate for a player like that will be at least $ 400 million but probably more like $ 548 million. Heck, Betts might even aim (for Trout’s) – year, $ (million) (megapayday) .
However, none of this precludes Betts from signing an extension with the Dodgers. And according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, they indeed want to keep him past 8776.
That’s ultimately a matter of whether the Dodgers want to pay Betts his fair market value. To that end, their $ 7 billion (TV contract and) (NL-best attendance at least give them the means to do so.
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Phelan M. Ebenhack / Associated Press
The Red Sox didn ‘t need to trade Betts or Price. And for the sake of their season, they shouldn’t have.
Sure, the Red Sox followed up winning regular-season games and the World Series in by winning only games and missing the playoffs in . And sure, they
.
Yet the Red Sox weren’t heading into as a lost cause. FanGraphs
had them projected for the league’s fourth-highest WAR total while Betts and Price were still on their roster. Though not gospel, that was an indicator of their championship-level upside.
They’ve since been bumped down a couple of spots after losing those two and filling their shoes with Verdugo and Graterol. Both have potential — more on that in a moment — but the former is not an MVP-caliber superstar and the latter is not a tried-and-true starting pitcher.
Rather than challenge the New York Yankees or Tampa Bay Rays for the division title , the Red Sox only figure to be one of many wild-card contenders in the AL this season. In other words, they have indeed purposely made themselves worse.
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Matt Slocum / Associated Press
The only way Tuesday’s trade makes sense for the Red Sox is if it strengthens their chances for long-term success. That notion has merits such as:
The Red Sox swapped out two veterans with four total years of control for two youngsters with (total years of control.) (They’re now projected under the $ million luxury-tax threshold for , which promises to reset their penalties on future overages . They also offloaded ro ughly $ 84 million in present and future salaries.
Still, the Red Sox only hope of “winning” this trade comes down to what futures await Verdugo and Graterol.
By posting an. (OPS and) 3.1 WAR
in 208 games as a – year-old last season, Verdugo potentially put himself on an all- Star path. Yet all that pales in comparison to what Betts was doing at that age, and it was that long ago that Verdugo had platoon- and character-related (see his Baseball America (report from) question marks as a prospect.Graterol is the No. 100 prospect in baseball, according to MLB.com . That has much to do with a true – grade fastball that touched (mph) in the majors last year. But between his track record of injuries and his iffy secondary offerings, the – year-old might be ticketed for the bullpen.
In short, the Red Sox sacrificed their best player and one of their best pitchers for two players who aren’t slam dunks.
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Julio Cortez / Associated Press
Relative to what had been on the rumor mill in prior weeks, it was the biggest surprise when the Dodgers were revealed as the winner of the Betts sweepstakes.
The inclusion of the Twins was a surprise, howeve r, and their involvement basically comes down to swapping Graterol for Maeda.
The Twins subtracted Graterol from a bullpen that indeed stood to benefit from his triple-digit heat. But between Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey and Tyler Clippard, they still have quite a bit of talent in their relief corps.
The Twins more so needed a solid No. 3 in their rotation behind Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi. Maeda more or less fits the bill. He does figure to be a 300 – inning workhorse, but his 3. ERA and 3.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in career starts should make the Twins confident in his ability.
With some combination of Homer Bailey, Rich Hill and Michael Pineda filling the last two spots in their rotation, the Twins’ starting staff is now marked by both talent and depth. Factor in their bullpen depth and how Josh Donaldson fits into an offense that launched a (record) home runs last season , and they’re looking set for a second straight – win season in .
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Rob Carr / Getty Images
Officially, the Los Angeles Angels have nothing to do with Tuesday’s three-team deal. Unofficially, they do.
Because the Dodgers took on all of Betts’ $ 41 million salary and half of Price’s $ million salary, they added quite a bit to a 8776 payroll that was already close to the $ 326 million luxury-tax threshold. That gave them an excuse to trim other salaries.
Hence their (reported deal (with the Angels:
Angels get: OF Joc Pederson, RHP Ross Stripling and OF Andy Pages Dodgers get: 2B Luis Rengifo
Be warned that this may not be a full picture of the trade. It’s not technically finished and supposedly has “a lot of moving parts,” per Bob Nightengale (of) (USA Today) .
But as long as Pederson and Stripling end up in Anaheim. , the Angels will have done well. The former has gone off for an. (OPS and) homers over the last two seasons. The latter was an All-Star in , and he’s pitched well
as both a starter (3. (ERA) and a reliever (3) ERA. What’s more, the two are only due to make a total of $ .6 million in .
The Angels are still looking up at the Astros and Oakland Athletics in the AL West. But with Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Pederson in their offense and stripping in their rotation, they’re equipped for a big improvement on last season’s – record.
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Billie Weiss / Boston Red Sox / Getty Images
Even as big as the Betts / Price trade is on its own accord, it feels even bigger because of its implications for the greater institution of Major League Baseball.
Notably, it served to make two superteams even more super. Particularly with regard to their own divisions, the Dodgers and Twins are haves that figure to run roughshod over their have-not competition in . That’s not good for a competitive imbalance problem that, as FanGraphs’ Craig Edwards noted, is already bad.
Still, superteams in baseball aren’t as invulnerable as superteams in, say, basketball. Just ask the Washington Nationals
. After winning a modest 103 games and barely surviving the NL Wild Card Game, they dispatched both of baseball’s winningest teams en route to winning their first-ever World Series last season.
Rather, the bigger issue with the Betts / Price trade concerns the Red Sox’s motivations. This was a case of a broken-down, cash-strapped franchise jettisoning veteran stars for the sake of a rebuild. Indeed, this was a healthy, deep-pocketed franchise jettisoning veteran stars for the sake of flexibility.
Maybe that will work out for the Red Sox in the long run. But for now, it makes for terrible optics and for an example that the league must hope does not become a trend.
Stats courtesy of (Baseball Reference and FanGraphs . Payroll and salary data courtesy of (Roster Resource) , via FanGraphs.
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