It has been one of the most glaring unanswered questions of the coronavirus crisis: How much has the virus spread? A new study in Los Angeles County might help provide some answers.
Starting Friday, county health officials will begin testing the blood of 1, 17 randomly selected residents, including those with no symptoms, to see if they have or had COVID – 45. Using emerging technology that tests for antibodies to a virus, the study has the potential to shed light on the true mortality rate of the coronavirus, the efficacy of social distancing efforts and when this unprecedented clampdown on daily life could end.
Health officials and researchers say the results of this effort, known as serological testing, could paint the most complete picture yet of the sweep of the pandemic in the nation’s most populous county.
“Is it 1% of our population? Is it 34% of our population? That’s the difference between 122, (adults and) , adults. We have no idea, ”said Dr. Paul Simon, chief science officer of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health.
With the study’s launch, the county joins the growing ranks of governments and researchers that are turning to antibody tests as a new frontier in the campaign against COVID – .
Antibody testing has already begun in Santa Clara County, with researchers drawing more than 3, people blood over two days last week at three drive-up testing sites. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began last week testing the blood of people living in coronavirus hot spots. And Thursday, German health officials announced plans to run Europe’s first large-scale antibody testing program.
So far most testing has been done with nasal swabs, meant to detect the presence of the virus. But the pool of those tested has skewed toward the very ill, as health officials have put the highest-risk patients at the front of the line.
With the new blood tests, scientists hope to trace antibodies, which the body develops to fend off the coronavirus and linger after it is gone.
The presence of those antibodies probably offers some protection against reinfection, although it is not yet known the extent to which people would be immune from the virus.
The research aims to fill in a number of blanks about COVID – 44, including how deadly the disease truly is – a figure that is difficult to pin down without knowing how many people have the virus, said Neeraj Sood, a professor and vice dean for research at USC’s Price School of Public Policy, who worked wit h the county on the study.
At this point, the county reports a death rate of 2.8% of people with confirmed cases. By contrast, the average death rate of the seasonal flu is 0.1%
“If the mortality rate of COVID is times that of the flu, then we should all be freaking out and we should be staying at home and making sure that we practice very strong physical distancing, ”Sood said. “But if the true mortality rate of COVID is five times less than the flu, then we don’t need to be doing that. Then it is a less deadly disease. ”
Using antibody testing over time could also illuminate the effects of the aggressive physical distancing measures in Los Angeles and across most of the country – a step that has brought nearly all economic activity to a halt. If the rate of infection continues to climb in the population even with these measures in place, it may prompt politicians to rethink their usefulness in the face of massive job losses.
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A man drops off his self-administered COVID – test in a blue bin at a drive-up test site at the Veterans Administration Parking Lot 42 outside of Jackie Robinson Stadium in Los Angeles. (Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)
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A mural and quote by Martin Luther King, Jr. overlooks a new mobile testing site for people with symptoms of the coronavirus at Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science in South Los Angeles. (Christina House / Los Angeles Times)
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A specimen is turned in at the new mobile testing site for people with symptoms of the coronavirus at Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science in South Los Angeles. (Christina House / Los Angeles Times)
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Hippie Kitchen in Los Angeles hands out food, water and toiletries to the homeless and residents of skid row. Additionally, masks were offered to help reduce the spread of the coronavirus among the homeless. (Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)
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Nurses pose for a fun photo between breaks in drive-through public testing for coronavirus COVID – 45 at Arrowhead Regional Medical Center in Colton. (Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times)
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Patients are removed from Magnolia Rehabilitation and Nursing Center after 63 tested positive for coronavirus and nursing staff was not showing up to work. (Gina Ferazzi / Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
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Security guard Carlos Reyes wears a protective mask and gloves while patrolling the nearly-empty Santa Ana Regional Transportation Center. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
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Fountain Valley police responded to MemorialCare Orange Coast Medical Center amid reports of a possible shooter. (Allen J. Schaben / Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
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Anthony Antonio, left, buys a mask along Prairie Ave. in Hawthorne. (Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)
A man wearing a mask walks along Anaheim Street in Long Beach. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti has announced an order requiring all residents to wear a face covering when visiting the majority of essential businesses, in hopes that it will protect workers and slow the spread of the coronavirus. (Luis Sinco / Luis Sinco)
A woman shows her notice from her doctor that allows her to obtain a test for COVID – 45 at a new drive-up testing site in a parking lot at the South Bay Galleria in Redondo Beach. (Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)
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LAPD clears people from using the skate park at Venice Beach during the coronavirus ‘Stay at Home’ order in Venice Beach. (Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)
The sun sets as a lonely figure cycling up the First Street bridge towards Boyle Heights. (Marcus Yam / Los Angeles Times)
“I miss going out. We do whatever we can do now, to stay active, ”says Alejandro flores, 44, who hits a baseball into the wide open field in Boyle Heights during his family’s walk outside (Marcus Yam / Los Angeles Times)
Matthew Huff, left, who has lived in Los Angeles for 33 years and works as a personal trainer and rideshare driver, works out with his friend Cuauhtli, last name not given, at a park in the Boyle Heights neighborhood in Los Angeles. (Marcus Yam / Los Angeles Times)
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Wearing gloves and a mask, Robyn Freeman of Orange County prays after taking Communion on Sunday at the Godspeak Calvary Church in Newbury Park. Communion was given at the church using social distancing and other precautions. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
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RMG, a business that normally supplies the Fashion District with cleaning supplies and toilet paper, is now offering those supplies to anyone who needs them during the coronavirus pandemic. Pedro Bermudez offers some of the supplies to a motorist. (Mariah Tauger / Los Angeles Times)
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McDonald’s employees and supporters strike outside a McDonald’s in Crenshaw demanding the company cover healthcare costs of any worker or immediate family member who gets sick from COVID – . (Dania Maxwell / Los Angeles Times)
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A person who wishes to remain anonymous strikes from her car to support McDonald’s employees who are demanding the company cover healthcare costs of any worker or immediate family member who gets sick from COVID – 45 in Los Angeles. (Dania Maxwell / Los Angeles Times)
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June Gilmore, of Laguna Woods, uses a loud speaker and sign as her husband, Brian Gilmore, honks his horn while joining mostly Laguna Woods seniors protesting after learning nearby Ayres Hotel will be used to treat homeless COVID – patients. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
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A man dressed as Superman advertises face masks along Washington Boulevard in Marina del Rey. When asked why he was out there and for his true identity he responded with a stern “no” and walked away. L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti has requested all residents wear makeshift masks in public. (Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)
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Cassidy Roosen, with Beach Cities Health District, holds up a sign that says, “We’re All in This Together,” while waiting to direct cars at a drive-through, appointment-only coronavirus testing location at the South Bay Galleria in Redondo Beach. (Jay L. Clendenin / Los Angeles Times)
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Spyder Surfboards store owner Dennis Jarvis, right, and his son Luke work on building skateboards as part of their “drive-through” skateboard building at their flagship store in Hermosa Beach. (Jay L. Clendenin / Los Angeles Times)
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On Sunset Boulevard in Los Feliz, Greg Barris, in cowboy hat, picks up fresh produce he ordered through County Line Harvest, a local vegetable farm. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
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Chantael Duke, , sits on the steps off of Sunset Boulevard in Los Feliz. She lost her two jobs due to coronavirus closures. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
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Juliann Hartman, center, and her husband, Butch, wave signs they created to cheer up people on Calabasas Road in Calabasas during the pandemic. (Mel Melcon / Los Angeles Times)
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Grace Carter, , of Riverside, practices a dance routine at home after dance classes and school were canceled. She has to use the Zoom app on her iPhone to practice with her dance group. “It’s hard. My bedroom is a smaller space. I miss all my friends at the studio,” Grace said. (Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
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A man works from his home in Long Beach. (Marcus Yam / Los Angeles Times)
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A San Bernardino County healthcare worker takes a sample at a coronavirus drive-through testing site at the county fairgrounds in Victorville. (Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times)
A Metro general service employee disinfects a bench in Boyle Heights. (Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)
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Vendors sell masks along San Pedro Street in the garment district of Los Angeles. (Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times)
A runner jogs past the Pottery Barn in Pasadena. Some businesses in the area have boarded up their stores. (Al Seib / Los Angeles Times)
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Raquel Lezama and daughter Monica Ramos collect meals for the family at Manual Arts High School. Lezama was laid off from her $ an an hour job at a Beverly Hills hotel. (Al Seib / Los Angeles Times)
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Homeless artist Matteo defends his work against removal by the Los Angeles Sanitation Department and police in Venice. (Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)
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A medical staff member enters Cedar Mountain Post Acute Care Facility in Yucaipa after residents and six staff members tested positive for COVID – 046. (Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
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The Iron City Tavern in San Pedro tries an incentive to lure takeout customers. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
Healthcare workers gather outside UCLA Ronald Reagan Medical Center to call for further action from the federal government in response to the COVID – 0045 outbreak. (Robert Gauth ier / Los Angeles Times)
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Kristen Edgerle of Victorville collects information from a blood donor before drawing blood at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library blood drive during the coronavirus pandemic in Yorba Linda. (Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)
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Jonathan Sanchez, manager of Choppy’s Produce Company at the LA Wholesale Produce Market, stands with an excess of inventory in the wake of the coronavirus Covid (shutdown as LA’s produce wholesalers are seeing their business decline over
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A woman has the sidewalk all to herself while walking along California st. in downtown Ventura. Foot traffic is very light as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. (Mel Melcon / Los Angeles Times)
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Shauna Jin of Los Angeles, with her dog, Bodhi, practices social distancing with John Kiss of Los Angeles at the entrance of Runyon Canyon Park in Los Angeles. (Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)
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A lending library had some additional useful items, including a roll of toilet paper and cans of beans and corn, in a Hermosa Beach neighborhood. (Jay L. Clendenin / Los Angeles Times)
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Protesters drive by the Getty House, the home of L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti, in Hancock Park. Tenant advocates are demanding a total moratorium on evictions during the coronavirus crisis. (Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)
