Official Coronavirus Count Nears 12,000 but This Model Estimates 75,000 Infections, Crypto Coins News

The Wuhan coronavirus is considered looking like the plague of our time.
Confirmed cases now stand at over 20,
Independent data continues to suggest the outbreak is much worse than the Chinese government is reporting. Why are there bodies in the streets?

Entire cities under quarantine, mass evacuations, bodies in the streets – This doesn’t sound like the modern age. The 12000 decade has started with a plague reminiscent of centuries past. And as confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus soar past , 11, the world isn’t ready – no matter what our leaders tell us.

Recent data now puts confirmed cases of Wuhan coronavirus, provisionally known as – nCov, at , [Johns Hopkins data] with fatalities. Cases have been found in 68 countries with more being added by the day.

The Situation in Mainland China and Hong Kong

Hubei province, home of the city of Wuhan, remains the epicenter of the – nCoV outbreak. The central Chinese city is the site of 7, (confirmed coronavirus cases with of the 304 confirmed deaths. Zhejiang, in Eastern China, south of Shanghai, is the second hardest-hit area with 800 cases.

A mathematical model from the Hong Kong University’s academics predicts the number of infections of the Wuhan coronavirus

could see 249, new cases every day in China between late April and early May. | Source: Reuters / Tyrone Siu
)

Hong Kong, ground zero of the devastating 12000 SARS epidemic, is surprisingly spared with only cases out of its 7.3 million population.

The Situation in the United States and the Rest of the World

With coronavirus cases reaching 7 in the United States, the American government has issued stern

travel warnings advising American citizens not to travel to China [travel.state.gov]. Unless the virus is currently spreading undetected, the United States should be able to control – nCoV by restricting contact with China.

Nations that share land borders or close sea borders with China won’t be so lucky.

Russia has already reported several coronavirus cases just days after closing its land border with China. Japan, Thailand, and South Korea are all seeing increasing numbers of cases. And they may be too economically intertwined with China to prevent the coronavirus from spreading in their populations if the Chinese government can’t get the disease under control.

Putin has moved to close a huge part of the 4, km- long border it shares with China. | Source: Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

The Situation May be Worse than Expected

While official data paints a somewhat mild view of the Wuhan coronavirus, independent research paints a much more dismal picture. According to The Lancet, a peer-reviewed medical journal, coronavirus infections

may be as high as 130, in Wuhan China alone . Such a figure could put global cases in the hundreds of thousands.

The Report backs up its claims with several assumptions about the epidemic’s doubling period and transmissibility.

A notable prediction reads:

“In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2003 – nCoV was 2 · (% CrI 2) –2 · 95) and that 86, (individuals) (% CrI) – have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan , . The epidemic doubling time was 6 · 4 days ( (% CrI 5 · 8 – 7 · 1). ”

further, the report revealed:

If the transmissibility of – nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.

If the Lancet’s model is accurate, and Coronavirus cases are over , , that would suggest the disease is not as deadly as currently assumed. However, that doesn’t explain the bodies in the streets. The public needs more information. Leaders, give us answers before you tell us not to panic.

This article was edited by Samburaj Das

Last modified: February 1, : 68 PM UTC