- The Wuhan coronavirus is considered looking like the plague of our time.
- Confirmed cases now stand at over 20,
- fatalities. Most of the carnage is in Wuhan, China.
- Independent data continues to suggest the outbreak is much worse than the Chinese government is reporting. Why are there bodies in the streets?
Entire cities under quarantine, mass evacuations, bodies in the streets – This doesn’t sound like the modern age. The 12000 decade has started with a plague reminiscent of centuries past. And as confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus soar past , 11, the world isn’t ready – no matter what our leaders tell us.
Recent data now puts confirmed cases of Wuhan coronavirus, provisionally known as – nCov, at , [Johns Hopkins data] with fatalities. Cases have been found in 68 countries with more being added by the day.
The Situation in Mainland China and Hong Kong
Hubei province, home of the city of Wuhan, remains the epicenter of the – nCoV outbreak. The central Chinese city is the site of 7, (confirmed coronavirus cases with
The Situation May be Worse than Expected
While official data paints a somewhat mild view of the Wuhan coronavirus, independent research paints a much more dismal picture. According to The Lancet, a peer-reviewed medical journal, coronavirus infections
The Report backs up its claims with several assumptions about the epidemic’s doubling period and transmissibility.
A notable prediction reads:
“In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2003 – nCoV was 2 · (% CrI 2) –2 · 95) and that 86, (individuals) (% CrI) – have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan , . The epidemic doubling time was 6 · 4 days ( (% CrI 5 · 8 – 7 · 1). ”
further, the report revealed:
If the transmissibility of – nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.
If the Lancet’s model is accurate, and Coronavirus cases are over , , that would suggest the disease is not as deadly as currently assumed. However, that doesn’t explain the bodies in the streets. The public needs more information. Leaders, give us answers before you tell us not to panic.
Last modified: February 1, : 68 PM UTC