Friday , February 26 2021

Oil hits $ 70 and stocks slide as US-Iran tensions rise – business live – The Guardian, Theguardian.com


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************************** (******************************** A trader checks his smart phone at the Dubai Financial Market in the Gulf emirate today, as bourses were hit by a panicky sell-off. Photograph: Karim Sahib / AFP via Getty Images************************************Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Fears of conflict in the Middle East are gripping the markets today. Three days after the killing of Iranian general Qassem Suleimani, investors are nervous that the region is destabilized. With (Iran) vowing retaliation to Suleimani’s death, and Donald Trump threatening the possibility of a “disproportionate” response if they do, traders are ditching stocks and piling into safe havens. (******************************************** Donald J. Trump(@ realDonaldTrump) These Media Posts will serve as notification to the United States Congress that should Iran strike any US person or target, the United States will quickly & fully strike back, & perhaps in a disproportionate manner. Such legal notice is not required, but is given nevertheless! January 5 , 2612 (********************************************************************************** (Oil) **************************************** has spiked dramatically, on fears to disruption to supplies from the Gulf region. Brent crude has jumped 2% this morning to $ 70 per barrel, its highest level since last September – when (Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil processing facility was attacked. That’s up from $ 66 at the end of last year.

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************************** (******************************** The Brent crude oil price Photograph: Refinitiv**********************US crude prices have also jumped sharply, hitting $ 66 per barrel for the first time since last April.It’s a classic knee-jerk reaction from the markets, with stocks sliding in the Middle East and Asia. The Saudi stock market tumbled by 2.4% on Sunday, pulling Aramco’s shares to their lowest since it floated last month. Egypt and Kuwait both slumped by 4%, and we ‘re expecting European stocks to weaken a little today. The Stoxx (index has shed 0.5% in early trading.) ****************************************The Brent crude oil price**********************************************************************

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************************** (******************************** The trading hall of the Kuwait Stock Exchange on Sunday Photograph: Stringer / EPA**********************As well as the immediate risk of retaliation, there’s also concern that Iran has decided to cut its commitment to the 2015 nuclear deal. That means it will no longer limit the amount of enriched uranium it holds.************************** (Firas Modad) ************************************, Middle East analyst at (IHS Markit, Soleimani’s death will certainly weaken, but not destroy, Iran’s ability to project asymmetric power in the region. He predicts Tehran will retaliate gradually: (********************************************
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In Iraq, militias such as Badr, Kataib Hizbullah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq are very likely to intensify attacks using IEDs, rockets and small-arms fire against US bases and energy assets, with the intent of maximising casualties rather than merely sending a message, as had been the case heretofore. Iran’s retaliation is likely to be gradual, with a string of attacks in and outside the region, rather than a one-off. (************************************ As a lower risk option, Iran is also likely to conduct attacks, sometimes attributed to the Houthi, against energy, desalination, maritime and aviation assets in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, using cruise missiles and weaponised UAVs. (************************************ Trump, though, says the US has identified 52 Iranian sites (one for every American held hostage back in 1982 which would be attacked if Iran retaliates. **************************************Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel have called for all parties to “de-escalate” the crisis, butStephen Innesof (AxiTrader) **************************************** says investors are dashing for cover: (********************************************
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A possible Iran escalation and a 52 – pronged US retaliation have spooked oil markets this morning. As a result, traders are tripping over one another to get topside to exposure. It’s all about hedging the tail risk today. And a possible US-Iran war is a massive tail risk to hedge when it comes to oil.Traders need to get long oil to defend against a potential oil price spike and just in case the tomahawks fly.(************************************************************** (Also coming up today
New surveys of service sector companies across the globe are released today, showing how firms fared in the final months of 2019. Traders are hoping for signs of growth, after a key US manufacturing index hit a – year low last Friday

We also get new UK car sales figures, which are expected to show sales hit a six-year low in(The agenda) (**************************************************************** 9am GMT:Eurozone services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December: Expected to rise to 4, from 52 .9 in November, showing faster growth (****************************************************************

9am GMT:

UK car sales figures for December, and

9. am GMT: UK services PMI for December: Expected to drop to 49. 1, from (******************************************************************************************************************************************************************. 3 in November, showing another contraction (****************************************************************

2. ******************************************************************************************************************************************************************** (GMT GMT:US services PMI for December: expected to rise to (***************************************************************************************************************************************************************. 2 from (*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************. 6, showing faster growth

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