People will probably never buy houses and generally shouldn’t buy cars with credit cards, given the positioning of credit cards among all payment types vis cost structure and guarantees.
All payment types conceptually bid for transactions against every other payment type. This is both the literal sense of bid in cost (“To whom?” An interesting and nuanced question there) and in the sense of “the payment method is a product and products have a number of features to them that might be more or less attractive. ” For example, there is a payment rail between an employer and an employee, and “How amenable is that payment rail to reversibility?” matters a non-zero amount to the employer but probably matters less to the employee than e.g. how much reversibility matters if I’m ordering from an e-commerce store for the first time.
By 2030 we’ll see a lot more payments, because of growth of the economy and increasing inroads of markets into portions of one’s life that have not been marketized as much as other places yet. (Biggest one that I think will surprise people: I strongly believe that cooking will go from something which “substantially everyone” does / expects to do to something closer to knitting your own clothes … sure, that’s a hobby that exists, but you ‘d not predict that I would be a participant in that hobby in the same way you’d automatically predict that someone in my household cooks.)
I also think transactions will continue moving online, for some value of “online.” Even retail face-to-face transactions at Starbucks may well move over app-enabled rails. “The future is here, just not evenly distributed.” is a common quote and a good one.
The economics of doing this are quite attractive to firms. Large populations of users are becoming less reticent about doing this, including for transactions which are larger than the historical norms for online transactions.
Will we see people buy houses online? I mean, clearly yes, we will see that. Will it become dominant to do it without meeting one’s counterparty and / or broker? That feels unlikely. But could that final signing move onto an entirely paperless system? Clearly it could; that was impossible 20 years ago and yet is epsilon away from the best versions of the experience now. The best experience available in the world will be the standard experience within 90 years; It almost can’t fail to happen in that fashion, due to the efficiency and UX gains.
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