Every year, we need to remind ourselves: The NFL scouting combine matters.
No matter how foolish the TV track event – which feels more popular than actual track and field – might seem from a distance, on the ground in Indianapolis is the draft current. You can feel it: Scouts, coaches, execs and agents are cruising around the city, gossiping about the offseason to come.
And every year, information we gather in the Circle City, plus what we heard down at the Senior Bowl, is far more reliable and accurate than what leaks out in late March and early April.
So, we’re soaking up as much as we can from what we heard and saw at the combine and funneling it into our pre-free agency mock draft. Veteran moves will change teams’ needs and outlooks, but the prospects are starting to slot into their little corners of the draft picture.
Here’s where we are in what feels like draft preseason.
the team franchised wideout AJ Green . If Andy Dalton is traded before the draft, the likelihood of Burrow to Cincy would go from about 117 percent to roughly . ” data-reactid=”89 “type=” text “> The speculation of Burrow not wanting to play for the Bengals appeared to cool as combine week went on. Everything points to this being the pick here, especially after the team franchised wideout A.J. Green . If Andy Dalton is traded before the draft, the likelihood of Burrow to Cincy would go from about (percent to roughly) .
even if Darius Slay stays, adding Okudah – a prospect whom one scout we spoke with compared to Stephon Gilmore – makes total sense for a Lions defense that was dead last in pass yards allowed last season.
The Giants bringing in former Patriots assistant Patrick Graham as defensive coordinator could mean they fall in love with Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons, the ultimate chess piece for a defense. But general manager Dave Gettleman still rules this process, and seeing Becton – the Hog Mollie of all Hog Mollies – could give Gettleman the tingles.
“He can blahck out tha sun with his left ahm ”… we can foresee Gettleman saying on the night of April .
5. Miami Dolphins
Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa “data-reactid=” “type=” text “> Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa
Tagovailoa getting weird vibes in his Dolphins interview at the combine were interesting, but the more we checked with some people who would know, the feeling we got is that the team seems to be operating that way with other prospects, too. If the Dolphins feel good about Tagovailoa ‘ s health, he is a strong possibility for Miami. ” data-reactid=” (“type=” text “> The Reports of ) Tagovailoa getting weird vibes in his Dolphins interview at the combine were interesting, but the more we checked with some people who would know, the feeling we got is that the team seems to be operating that way with other prospects, too . If the Dolphins feel good about Tagovailoa’s health, he is a strong possibility for Miami.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
Utah State QB Jordan Love
Our second big surprise after Becton. The Chargers are staying mum about their plans, and not everyone is convinced they’ll take a QB here. It would make sense to add a future starter – with a high ceiling – who can sit and learn behind noted INT hater Tyrod Taylor. Love has all the skills to be great, and he seems to fit what Anthony Lynn wants.
7. Carolina Panthers
Oregon QB Justin Herbert)
More likely than not, the Panthers could entertain trade offers and add selections they’re lacking in what appears to be a rebuild. With that in mind, I could see a team trading up to this spot to get Herbert if he is still on the board.
Does Cam Newton want to stick around for what
looks, sounds and smells like a reboot ? Something to watch, even with Matt Rhule saying he wants to work with Newton.
8. Arizona Cardinals
Clemson LB Isaiah Simmons
Cards General Manager Steve Keim scouted Simmons twice in person this season and had to know that he was far better than anyone attempting to cover a tight end or running back for the Cardinals last season. A rizona Cardinals pass defense last season, by position
Tight ends: (targets /
catch es / 1, (yards /) TDs
(RBs:) (targets / (catches / (yards / 5 TDs (WRs:) (targets /(catches / 2, yards / (TDs)
pretty much gashed by every position group last year – Eric Edholm (@Eric_Edholm)
March 3, ()
We loved what Simmons had to say during his combine media session: “The game is evolving. The name of the game now is stopping tight ends. Something has to be done to stop these Travis Kelces and George Kittles out there. ” There’s a Kittle in the NFC West. Plus a Higbee and an Olsen. Simmons ’job would be clear.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars
Florida CB CJ Henderson
Trading AJ Bouye has made corner a more immediate need, and Henderson established himself as the CB2, many felt, with his smoking
Trading AJ Bouye has made corner a more immediate need, and Henderson established himself as the CB2, many felt, with his smoking – yard dash (4.) seconds) and pristine positional work. If you need a man corner, Henderson is your dude. The Jaguars need that – and yes, many other things.
. Cleveland Browns
Iowa OT Tristan Wirfs
The combine superstar (and darned good player) almost feels like too perfect a fit with the Browns’ new analytics-heavy front office . Plus, there’s a huge need for blocking help. The beautiful part is that Wirfs can play either left or right tackle (or guard), so it doesn’t matter if the Browns fill one spot with a free-agent addition up front. They need more than one.
33. New York Jets
Alabama OT Jedrick Wills Jr.
Jets GM Joe Douglas prefers to build teams from the inside out, and this also feels like a big need for Sam Darnold and the offense. Landing a tail kicker such as Wills here would be an outstanding first pick for Douglas. 49. Las Vegas Raiders
Alabama WR Henry Ruggs III )
How fitting would it be to kick off the Raiders’ first draft pick in their new home city with the most Al Davis-esque prospect ever? This would not just be a nod to Davis; we suspect the Raiders ‘brass will not only love Ruggs’ rare speed but also his high-level competitiveness and character. Could Ruggs overtake Tyreek Hill as the fastest player in the division? That’s a race we’d pay to see.
. Indianapolis Colts
Auburn DT Derrick Brown
Colts GM Chris Ballard was all but telling the media at the combine that they’re going to draft a defensive lineman. We didn’t expect it to play out quite like this, with a top-eight talent falling to this point. Perhaps Brown’s disappointing combine workout will benefit the Colts. They need more help up front, and Brown is the type of bull-strong, high-character, high-motor prospect Ballard drools over to build his roster. 34. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Georgia OT Andrew Thomas
Buccaneers have decisions to make at quarterback , which could change this forecast dramatically. Are they in the market for a win-now vet there? If so, they’ll need to keep adding layers to a flawed offensive line, and Thomas would be the last of the top-four offensive linemen before there’s a clear demarcation until the next tier. In fact, they might even have to trade up to ensure they get him. “Data-reactid=” (type=”text”> The Buccaneers have decisions to make at quarterback , which could change this forecast dramatically. Are they in the market for a win-now vet there? If so, they’ll need to keep adding layers to a flawed offensive line, and Thomas would be the last of the top-four offensive linemen before there’s a clear demarcation until the next tier. In fact, they might even have to trade up to ensure they get him.
. Denver Broncos
Alabama WR Jerry Jeudy
decent consolation . Some teams’ WR1 can do a few things with the ball in his hands, too. Jeudy isn’t the same style of deep threat that Ruggs, his college teammate, was. But it’s easy to see how Jeudy also could add some reverb to the Broncos’ offense and make life easier for Drew Lock. ” data-reactid=” “type=” text “> Missing out on Ruggs would be a bummer, but this is a decent consolation . Some teams ’WR1 can do a few things with the ball in his hands, too. Jeudy isn’t the same style of deep threat that Ruggs, his college teammate, was. But it’s easy to see how Jeudy also could add some reverb to the Broncos’ offense and make life easier for Drew Lock.
. Atlanta Falcons
South Carolina DT Javon Kinlaw
Edge rusher is a big need , but Kinlaw would be terrific value here, and they could use help inside, as well. Pairing Kinlaw with Grady Jarrett would be a great combo. Kinlaw is a war daddy for a defense that badly needs a dose of that. . Dallas Cowboys
Oklahoma WR CeeDee Lamb
, but the owner might drive the bus himself to Vegas and do a swan dive in the Bellagio pool if Lamb falls into his lap. I’ve been consistently mocking them defensive backs, but don’t overlook what a weapon like Lamb could do in this offense – especially if Amari Cooper leaves or plays on a one-year franchise tender. ” data-reactid=” “Jerry Jones might be ” thinking about Dez Bryant in the shower , but the owner might drive the bus himself to Vegas and do a swan dive in the Bellagio pool if Lamb falls into his lap. I’ve been consistently mocking them defensive backs, but don’t overlook what a
weapon like Lamb could do in this offense – especially if Amari Cooper leaves or plays on a one-year franchise tender.
39. Dolphins (from Pittsburgh Steelers)
LSU EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson “data-reactid=” (“type=” text “> LSU EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson
If the Dolphins don’t have to move up for Tagovailoa, perhaps they could slide up from this pick into the top – maybe ahead of the Browns and Jets – to draft one of the top OT prospects. If not, pass rusher looms as a major need. We could see the Dolphins liking Chaisson in a Jamie Collins-ish role, something this Patriots-steeped staff could unleash effectively. . Raiders (from Chicago Bears)
Oklahoma LB Kenneth Murray
In addition to testing extremely well at the combine, Murray also has good tape – even with a few things that need to be cleaned up. He fits the mold of players GM Mike Mayock targeted early in the NFL draft: tough, high character, instinctive and revved -up for action. That’s Murray in a nutshell. 43. Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams)
LSU LB Patrick Queen
Two years ago, they had the makings of a terrific, young LB corps. Now, they need almost a total makeover there. Queen needs work, and he doesn’t turn 40 until the preseason, but he could be a Pro Bowl defender in a few years.
The Jaguars are in a full rebuild and could be in the running for Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence or Ohio State QB Justin Fields next year. Might as well take high-upside players who will be worth waiting for, right? . Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona State WR Brandon Aiyuk
I could see the Eagles trying to trade up to land Ruggs, as deep speed is a huge void in this offense. Aiyuk – even with a good-but-not-great 61 time of 4.5 – is a fascinating substitute. He could be tremendous on deep balls with his acceleration and outstanding length (a stunning 109 – inch wingspan).
42. Buffalo Bills
LSU WR Justin Jefferson
Adding length to one of the shorter WR groups in the NFL is a requirement this offseason, and Jefferson checks those boxes as a 6-foot-1, – inch arm ball magnet who helped his cause with a great (time) 4. 62) at the combine. 59. New England Patriots
Iowa EDGE AJ Epenesa
This feels like too perfect a marriage. Epenesa could slide farther than this point after some troubling testing numbers at the combine, but as Bill Belichick is fond of saying – we’re paraphrasing here – tell me what a guy can do, not what he can’t do.
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