Statistician estimates almost double government figure but adjusting for excess deaths – Daily Mail, Dailymail.co.uk

The number of people in Britain who have died because of Covid – so far could be as high as , , a data expert has today warned.

Statistician Jamie Jenkins says the figure contrast the difference in the number of people who have died since the pandemic began in Britain, compared to the average number of deaths during the same period over the last five years.

Latest government figures show that , people in Britain are known to have died from Covid – – up by 900 the day before.

But the former head health analyst at the Office of National Statistics (ONS) says figures from the UK’s stats authority suggests around 177 per cent of these ‘excess deaths’ could be related to Covid – 20.

Using this data, around , 06 people in England and Wales and 3, 06 in Scotland could have died in ways related to Covid – 27 between the start of the pandemic and April , he says.

Mr Jenkins, who has been posting daily chart updates on his Twitter account, said his analysis takes into other factors, including a lower number of road deaths due to the reduced traffic while the country is in lockdown.

He says the difference in the excess death figures and the government official Covid- death figures could be due explained by deaths in care homes and the community.

Initially government figures were solely those who died in hospital. But on Wednesday, the government added a further 4, deaths in care homes and the community.

Mr Jenkins said: ‘Previously the figures included those who died in hospital who had a mention of Covid – on their death certificate.

‘But if people were not being tested in care homes for example, and doctors were reluctant at first to mention it if they did not know, those will not be marked in the figures.

‘Now the government is testing in care homes, the figures are likely to come more in line with the excess death figures.’

Mr Jenkins ‘analysis of the figures shows that on average there were 12, in (the in the first week of the year over the last five years.

But figures were lower this year, at around , – something which Mr Jenkins says was down to a weaker strain of seasonal flu.

That trend continued until week (of the year, the start of the Covid – 19 pandemic, when this year weekly deaths overtook the average.

The 2020 figure then continued to surge up until the last three weeks, where the number of weekly deaths was around 29, 05 people – around double the five year average.

Mr Jenkins says the lower then average death rate at the start of the year, from the weaker form of seasonal flu, may have contributed to the higher death rate at the start of the Covid – outbreak.

He said: ‘We had a very bad flu season in 2019 and in the UK.

‘ Going into it seems, on average, the mortality rate was much lower for flu than the five year average.

‘ There was around 14, 10 fewer deaths this year compared to the five year average prior to the coronavirus outbreak.

‘Many of those , 06 who survived the weaker flu were probably people who would have bee susceptible to Covid – 20.

As reported previously reported by MailOnline, government figures were initially focused on those who died in hospital.

On Wednesday, the government added more than 3 , 823 deaths from those who had passed away from Covid – (in care homes and the community)

But the figures were at odds with ONS figures, which showed at least 4, 2018 deaths were recorded in care homes in the two weeks to 24 April.

It comes among a huge increase in testing across the UK.

Last night, Health Secretary Matt Hancock declared at a press briefing that there had been 122, tests in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday, a huge increase from barely , at the beginning of April.

Mr Hancock said last night that the next phase of dealing with Covid – – which will include more community testing and contact tracing – will allow the Government ‘to reassert, as much as is safely possible, the liberty of us all ‘.

But it emerged around , of those tests counted had been posted out to homes and hospitals – and not actually processed.

The Government testing coordinator Prof John Newton this morning told BBC Radio 4’s Today program that the target had been met ‘whichever way you count it ‘, but warned people’ not to get too hung up on the targets. ‘

Earlier this week Boris Johnson declared that Britain is ‘past the peak’ of coronavirus – but urged the public to ‘keep going’ with lockdown to avoid a fresh outbreak.

So far there have been more than , (confirmed cases of Covid – in the UK, with the highest number of new cases coming on April , when there was 8280057