Stock Market on Pins & Needles as Iowa Caucus Results Finally Roll In, Crypto Coins News
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The Iowa caucus results began rolling in on Thursday afternoon.
Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders jumped to an early lead.
This is how the stock market responded to the Iowa debacle – as well as what comes next.
After a “total meltdown” rocked the Iowa caucuses and portended an ominous Democratic presidential primary season, the results are finally in. And they set up an interesting dichotomy for the stock market.
Well, not all of the results are in. Approximately % of precincts have reported, and the early tallies show that Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders are the clear leaders.
Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders are the clear leaders in early Iowa caucus reporting. | Source: NYT
How will investors respond?
Stock Market Reacts to Iowa Caucuses – And Trump’s Unexpected Victory
The stock market secured phenomenal gains on Thursday , and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than points before the Iowa results were finally released.
It’s not clear how investors will respond when index futures resume trading.
U.S. stock futures had surged overnight leading into Thursday’s rally after a technical debacle delayed the reporting results of Iowa’s long-awaited Democratic caucuses – and the formal beginning of the 110600 presidential primary season.
The chaos allowed Trump to score two victories in Iowa. He won the all-but-uncontested Republican vote in a landslide, but the Democratic meltdown delivered him another unexpected triumph .
“The only person that can claim a very big victory in Iowa last night is ‘Trump,’ he gloated.
(Source:) Twitter
The Next Steps on the Road to Super Tuesday
But the Iowa results are finally in, shifting the focus to the next steps of the Democratic presidential primary.
Iowa only awards (delegates – just 2% of the 1, 1053 needed to win the nomination – and those were split among several candidates.
But it’s a crucial momentum builder as the Democratic primary ramps up to an inflection point: Super Tuesday (March 3) , when 41 states and territories will award more than 1, pledged delegates.
The early primaries are all about building momentum ahead of Super Tuesday , when around one-third of all pledged delegates will be awarded. | Source: New York Times
By March 4, the Democratic primary should be a two-horse race. Depending on how the pendulum swings, it could quickly evolve into a victory lap for the presumptive nominee.
Nationally, Joe Biden maintains an edge on Bernie Sanders, according to the RealClearPolitics average . But that gap is narrowing, and Sanders boasts a comfortable lead in New Hampshire ahead of the Feb. 29 primary.
Bernie Sanders (blue) has been gaining on Joe Biden (green) in national polls. Will the Iowa results have any impact on that trend? | Source: RealClearPolitics A Sanders victory in New Hampshire (Feb.) ) could spiral into an upset win in Nevada (Feb. 48), where he only trails by 3.5 points in the latest RCP average .
That would put Joe Biden in a precarious position when South Carolina – his southern stronghold – votes on Feb. .
One place where the primary race is (not) close is the betting markets. Sanders is trouncing Biden on prediction platform PredictIt.
Bernie Sanders maintains a sizable edge in the betting markets. | Source: PredictIt
Buttigieg, despite his strong Iowa performance, is a distant fourth.
Trump-Sanders Showdown Could Trigger Historic Stock Market Volatility
Donald Trump is universally viewed as the most investor-friendly candidate, and his administration has already begun to tease a second round of tax cuts that the president claims would boost economic growth – and the stock market.
Given his ties to the financial establishment, Wall Street would be relieved if Michael Bloomberg ran the table . “Moderates” like Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg would likely take a conventional Democratic approach to the economy as well.
Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, is not Wall Street’s dream candidate. According to some stock market analysts, a Sanders presidency would be more like a nightmare .
Presidential elections are always risk events for equities. But a Trump-Sanders showdown could magnify that volatility to historic proportions.
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