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So what happens next? “We stick the knife in, of course,” said one shadow cabinet minister packing her bags to return from Brighton toWestminster.
What that means, to begin with, is that Labor will use this moment of maximum weakness for the Prime Minister to press for the House of Commons to sit next week – slap bang during the Conservative Party conference.
Boris Johnson’s big speech, supposedly the launchpad for a general election, is currently due to be delivered around lunchtime next Wednesday… when the Prime Minister is supposed to fulfil his weekly date of Questions in the House.
Suddenly, Boris Johnson’s options are narrower than they were a day ago. Not only that, but his authority is weakened, his relationships with colleagues shaken up. He may have to change his plans.
So what are his options now – and what tricks could the back-to-the- wall Tory leader pull to extricate himself from the dire situation that his unlawful behavior created?
Option 1: Call for a general election
He can forget it for the next few weeks, unless Labor has a sudden change of plan. Parliament has shown it can control the timing of when the PM is allowed to go to the country (he needs a two-thirds majority under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act). Jeremy Corbyn has agreed with other party leaders to keep Johnson waiting until after the PM has been forced to go cap in hand to Brussels and ask for a Brexit delay. And that humiliation will make an election a lot less easy for the Tory leader to win, as he will have broken his promise to Brexit by October 31.
However, Mr Johnson will be pushing at an open door if he moves a motion for an election during November when his threat of a no-deal has been defused.
Option 2: Sack Dominic Cummings
Dom is almost certainly high on the PM’s list of potential scapegoats. It’s not simply that he advised on the reckless and ill-planned dash to prorogue Parliament for five weeks, it is that he has become emblematic of the aggressive and cavalier approach to Brexit that the PM has experimented with, to disastrous effect.
Ditching The Dom might give a big moment for the PM to signal a new approach.
But there’s more to it than that. Reacting to the Supreme Court judgment, Nigel Farage singled out Cummings (a rival power in the 2016 referendum) for blame, tweeting “Dominic Cummings must go”. The unspoken hint was that if the aide is sacked, then the Brexit Party will be kind to Boris.
Option 3: Betray the Spartans
In the view of some Tory MPs, Boris has probably been planning this all along. The Spartans are the hardline euro-skeptic who would embrace a no-deal. They are a purist sub-sect of the European Research Group and were pivotal in getting Johnson elected leader in the belief that he would deliver on their wishes. Now, however, the obvious move is to do a deal with the EU and ram it through the Commons with the help of Labor MPs in leave areas, such as Stephen Kinnock’s Labor MPs 4 a Deal group. Jacob Rees-Mogg would be livid.
Option 4: Bring back the 21
Restoring the whip to the 21 Tory MPs who were stripped of the whip would go very well with Options 2 and 3. After all, wasn ‘ t it Dom’s idea to boot out Winston Churchill’s grandson of all people? It is a move that would look strong on the eve of party conference (though not as magnanimous as if he hadn’t waited for a defenestration by Lady Hale).
Option 5: Deal with the Devil
Just two weeks ago, a No 10 source ruled out a pact with the Brexit Party on the grounds that Nigel Farage was an “unfit” person. Is Boris desperate enough to eat his own spokesman’s words? Well, no, according to his side who say such a pact is out of the question. But Farage’s response to the court made plain that he is up for co-operation with Boris if Cummings is made to resign. The option might in the end prove tempting.
Option 6: Have Humble Pie and Eat It
A double helping of humility in the Commons tomorrow, followed by a flight to Brussels and Ireland for friendly talks about the importance of the Irish border issue and suddenly the option of a May Mk II withdrawal deal (actually , no different to May Mk 1) would be available to him. He would need to charm the Labor MPs and to fall out spectacularly with Jacob Rees-Mogg – but Boris is getting good at U-turns.
Option 7: The Theresa May Strategy
He could incant in the style of his predecessor “Nothing has changed” and just try to bluster it out, before calling a November election on the dubious platform of People versus Parliament. Except that it would actually be The 52% versus Parliament The Supreme Court Churchill’s Grandson. Maybe the polls will be untroubled by these fiascos. But with odds like those, he might want to consider the grisly fate of his predecessor and think again.
Option 8: If All Else Fails …
If he can steamroll on to November 20 th, Johnson will avoid the distinction of being the shortest-serving PM in history, overtaking George Canning who died in harness after just 118 days. After that he might consider the metaphorical silver revolver kept by the Men in Gray Suits for occasions when a leader runs out of options. Knowing Boris, he’ll have a bon mot ready, should the need arise.
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