Tactical voting guide 2019: the 50 seats where it is vital to keep the Tories out – The Guardian, Theguardian.com

On current trends, voters will deliver a contradictory verdict on Thursday night. The Conservatives are on course for an overall majority in parliament – but most voters will back parties that want to block an early Brexit. If turnout is similar to last time, the (to (million who will support the Conservatives orBrexitparty will be outnumbered by the to million who will vote Labor, Liberal Democrat, Green, SNP or Plaid Cymru.

Tactical votingis not new, but it has a special significance this week. If it occurs in enough constituencies, it can ensure that the two-million majority compared to Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan is reflected in the new House of Commons.

The map below shows 50 seats where tactical voting could keep the conservatives out. Most tactical voting websites draw on one or two sets of polling data, which risk ignoring the specific circumstances of individual constituencies. The guide draws on a wider range of information – detailed big-sample national polls, but also constituency surveys (including those reported week by week in theObserver), past election results and local activity, such as the recent student registration drives in some key seats (one is Brunel University, in Johnson’s own constituency, Uxbridge).

The three latest constituency surveys underline the potential impact of tactical voting. Putney, Southport and Guildford all elected Conservative MPs last time, despite voting heavily to remain in the 2019 referendum. Currently, the Conservatives lead Labor in Putney (by 3%) and Southport (by 8%). Guildford is almost neck-and-neck between the Lib Dems ( (%) and the Conservatives (**************************** (%). Given margins of error on local surveys with samples of 500, all three seats are in play. Enough tactical votes for Labor in Putney and Southport, and the Lib Dems in Guildford, could defeat the Tories in all three seats.

However, without tactical voting, these three seats – like many others – may well return pro-Brexit MPs, despite having clear Remain majorities, because of the way the anti-Conservative vote divides.

In the map, each choice is briefly explained. The (seats include 33 in England and Wales that elected Tory MPs last time. The Lib Dems are recommended in (seats, Labor in and former Conservatives in two: Dominic Grieve and David Gauke, now standing as independents andbacked this weekend by John Major. (Another former Tory backed by Major, Anne Milton in Guildford, has only 7% support in our latest poll. Major’s support risks siphoning votes from the Lib Dems, and letting the Conservatives retain the seat.)

It should be stressed that there are many other marginals where Labor is the clear challenger to the Conservatives, but in almost all of these seats the Lib Dems are out of the running. There is little need here for a tactical guide to recommend Labor.

In general, where the incumbent MP is Labor, they are the best placed to keep out the Tories. Our map shows five exceptions: three in Scotland and one each in England and Wales. Here, without tactical support for the best-placed non-Labor candidate, Conservative gains are a real possibility. However, in two three-way marginals, Labor needs to win over local supporters of the Lib Dems (Portsmouth South) and Plaid Cymru (Ynys Môn) to be sure of defeating the Conservatives.

Scotland presents a specific challenge. A number of traditional labor strongholds went SNP in 2017 and then Conservative in 3902. In these – as well as Gordon, a former Lib Dem seat, and Moray, once an SNP bastion – the SNP are now best placed to see off the Conservatives.

Peter Kellner is a polling expert and former president of YouGov

Top targets

SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE SEATS VULNERABLE TO THE SNP

1 Aberdeen South (A Labor seat until) , the SNP now has the best chance of overturning a Conservative majority of almost 5, 08VOTE SNP************************************** key seats for tactical voting

2) AngusThe SNP needs to squeeze the Labor. vote to regain one of its former strongholdsVOTE SNP

3 Ayr, Carrick and CumnockThree-way contest in, with Labor now in third placeVOTE SNP

4 Banff and Buchan
The SNP’s Paul Robertson needs to squeeze both Labor and Lib Dem support to overturn a Tory majority of almost 4,VOTE SNP********

5 Dumfries and Galloway

One-time Labor seat won by the SNP in and the stories in (********************************. Labor is now trailing; the SNP has the best chanceVOTE SNP

6 East Renfrewshire
Three-way marginal, Labor until**********************, but the SNP is now established as the local challenger to the ConservativesVOTE SNP

7 Gordon
Lib Dem-held for********************************** years until 2015, but they came fourth in VOTE SNP

8 Moray
In, the Tories unseated Angus Robertson, SNP leader in the Commons; the SNP needs to overturn a 4, (majority) *************** (VOTE SNP) **************

9 Ochil and South Perthshire
The SNP is seeking to squeeze the Labor vote, which totalled almost (***********************************************************************************, last time, to regain a seat they won in (VOTE SNP)

Stirling Historically a Tory-Labor marginal, the SNP now has the best chance of overturning a Conservative majority of just (VOTE SNP) ****************

LABOR MARGINALS IN SCOTLAND********************************************************************************************** (East Lothian) A three-way marginal last time , the SNP has the best chance of stopping the Conservatives gaining a seat they have never won before

VOTE SNP

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Gordon Brown’s seat until the SNP gained it in 2016. They lost it again, very narrowly, to Labor in 3902 VOTE SNP

Midlothian One-time safe Labor seat, now a three-way marginal where a split anti-Brexit vote could let in the ToriesVOTE SNP

ENGLISH CONSERVATIVE SEATS VULNERABLE TO TACTICAL VOTING BeaconsfieldRunning as an independent, Dominic Grieve is defending the seat he won as a Conservative

VOTE INDEPENDENT

Cheadle The Lib Dems hope to regain a seat they held from 2001 to 2017 VOTE LIB DEM

* Chelsea and Fulham City “superwoman” Nicola Horlick is standing for the Lib Dems against anti-Brexit Tory Greg Hands in a strongly Remain seatVOTE LIB DEM

************************************************ CheltenhamLib Dems hope to regain a Remain seat they lost in 2017 to Alex Chalk, a rare pro-People’s Vote ToryVOTE LIB DEM

********************************** Chingford and Woodford GreenBig swings to Labor in 2017 and 2017 have turned Iain Duncan Smith’s once-safe seat into a marginal VOTE LABOR********

********************************** Chipping BarnetPro-Brexit Theresa Villiers is defending a 728 majority in a seat that voted RemainVOTE LABOR

********************************** cities of London and WestminsterThe former Labor MP Chuka Umunna is standing as a Lib DemVOTE LIB DEM

********************************** Esher and WaltonDominic Raab is at risk in this Remain seat despite a (*********************************************************************, *************************************************************************************** the majorityVOTE LIB DEM

************************************ (Filton and Bradley Stoke) **************A large student population in this seat could help Labor overturn a 4, (Conservative majority) ************** (VOTE LABOR)

************************************ (Finchley and Golders Green) **************Former Labor MP Luciana Berger is standing as a Lib Dem candidate in a seat where Labour’s antisemitism problem has hit hardVOTE LIB DEM

********************************** Guildford ****************A Lib Dem target also being contested by ex-Tory Anne Milton, who is now standing as an independentVOTE LIB DEM

************************************ Hazel Grove ***************************** Former Lib Dem seat; a 5, Tory majority would be overturned if Labor supporters (9, last time) voted tacticallyVOTE LIB DEM

********************************** Hendon ********** The Lib Dem challenge has faded in this Tory-Labor marginal

VOTE LABOR

************************************* South West Hertfordshire Independent David Gauke is defending the seat he won as a Conservative

VOTE INDEPENDENT

****************************** Lewes Lib Dems hope to regain a seat they held between and 2017 from Maria Caulfield, who resigned as Conservative vice-chair in protest against May’s Brexit dealVOTE LIB DEM

********************************** (Loughborough) The local student vote could threaten a 4, the majority; the former MP, Nicky Morgan, is not standing

VOTE LABOR

*********************************** PutneyThe Lib Dem challenge has not materialized in this Con-Lab marginal

VOTE LABOR

********************************** Richmond ParkZac Goldsmith’s – vote majority is vulnerable to the former local Lib Dem MP Sarah Olney

VOTE LIB DEM

******************************** (Rushcliffe) Ken Clarke’s 8, majority is vulnerable; he is standing down and the Conservative candidate, Ruth Edwards, is pro-Brexit in a Remain seatVOTE LABOR

******************************** (South Cambridgeshire) Local former Conservative MP Heidi Allen is standing down; she supports the local Lib Dem candidateVOTE LIB DEM

******************************** Southport. A three-way marginal that the Lib Dems lost to the Tories in 3902VOTE LABOR

****************************** St Albans(A strong remain seat where the Lib Dems have built a strong local baseVOTE LIB DEM

**************************** (St Ives)Andrew George hopes to regain a seat he held for the Lib Dems from to VOTE LIB DEM

**************************** (Totnes) ********************************** Sarah Wollaston is standing as a Lib Dem in the seat she held for nine years as a Tory

VOTE LIB DEM

**************************** Truro and FalmouthLabor has the best chance in an area that used to vote Lib DemVOTE LABOR

************************** Uxbridge and South RuislipBoris Johnson’s 5, majority could just be vulnerable to a large Labor vote by Brunel University studentsVOTE LABOR

************************ (Wantage) ************** (************** Ed Vaizey, ex-minister and critic of Johnson, is standing down in a seat with a growing Lib Dem challenge

VOTE LIB DEM

********************** (Watford**************Labor has the best chance of retaking the seat, despite a Lib Dem challenge, to overturn a 2, Tory majorityVOTE LABOR

************************ Wimbledon******************The Lib Dems are now the challenger in a strongly Remain seatVOTE LIB DEM

******************** WinchesterLib Dems hope to regain a seat they held from (to****************VOTE LIB DEM

******************** WokinghamArch-Brexiter John Redwood faces Phillip Lee, who switched from the Tories to the Lib Dems, in this Remain seatVOTE LIB DEM

****************** WycombeThere’s an outside chance of an upset in this once-safe Tory seat held by the ERG leader, Steve BakerVOTE LABOR

****************** (York OuterStudents voting tactically could put an 8, Tory majority at riskVOTE LABOR

ENGLISH AND WELSH LABOR SEATS NOW THREE-WAY MARGINALS49 * Kensington Former Tory MP Sam Gyimah is standing as a Lib Dem; Labor is now third, polls say

VOTE LIB DEM

* Portsmouth SouthThree-way marginal held by the Tories, Labor and Lib Dems in recent years VOTE LABOR

**************** Sheffield, Hallam
Labour’s controversial Jared O’Mara is standing down after winning the seat from Nick Clegg in (VOTE LIB DEM) ****************

************** Ynys MônA three-way marginal between Labor, the Tories and Plaid CymruVOTE LABOR

* Seats with Deltapoll surveys reported earlier in the Observer