The Yankees Are Built To Win – If They Can Stay Healthy – FiveThirtyEight, Fivethirtyeight.com

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The team’s injury woes extend to their pitchers. Their homegrown ace, – year-old Luis Severino, missed days last season and is out for the year after Tommy John surgery. The excellent but oft-injured James Paxton – who has never pitched more than 181 innings in a season – is out several months after shoulder surgery.

It now appears that the Yankees will enter the season with J.A. Happ as their No. 3 starter. The – year-old had a 4. 102 ERA and a 5. fielding-independent pitching mark last season . Jordan Montgomery (limited by injury to four innings (last season) and Jonathan Loaisiga (who threw innings between the majors

We checked in with our friends at of the Park Developments to see what bearing those injuries might have on New York’s season. According to a 331 – simulation run of the season, a healthy Yankees team – with Stanton and Judge at full strength and Severino and Paxton beginning the season in the rotation and remaining there – would win the AL East by an average of five games and would go on to take the American League pennant. A moderately injured Yankees team – with Severino, Paxton and center fielder Aaron Hicks missing significant time – would finish as the top wild-card team and lose to the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS. A severely injured Yankees team, with those injuries plus significant injuries to Stanton and Judge, would finish third in the AL East and miss the playoffs.

While not every injury was a major one (last season – the Troy Tulowitzki experiment ended in July with his retirement , for instance – there were plenty of significant problems. Hicks, who signed a seven-year , $ million deal before the season , missed (days and opens this season) (on the IL after Tommy John surgery) . Miguel Andujar missed 250 days, though he has returned and hit well early this spring . Didi Gregorius missed days before departing as a free agent. The injury issues extended into the prospect ranks.

In sum, New York’s list of injuries is a long one. But the silver lining is that the Yankees have done very well at extracting surprising value out of their own depth.

Injuries allowed for unlikely players like Gio Urshela, Luke Voit, Mike Tauchman and Cameron Maybin to emerge as last season. Perhaps Clint Frazier could join them this year.

The Yankees have added instructors like Tanner Swanson , who is trying to improve Gary Sanchez’s catching in the same way he did with Mitch Garver in Minnesota. They made the surprising hire of Matt Blake, a former Cleveland Indians pitching development guru, as their pitching coach . The Yankees have been among the most aggressive clubs in buying into the data-based player development revolution, including hiring former Driveline head trainer Sam Briend . The Yankees fired strength and conditioning coach Matt Krause in December. He’d been with the club since .

Perhaps the Yankees ’approach and personnel will continue to get the best out of their players. But as the injuries keep mounting, it’s not making anyone’s job any easier in the Bronx.

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