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Turkish drones – a 'game changer' in Idlib – Al Jazeera English, Al Jazeera English

Turkish drones – a 'game changer' in Idlib – Al Jazeera English, Al Jazeera English

Over the past five days, Syrian opposition forces have gained ground in northwest Syria with the help of Turkish air support.

Since December, Syrian government forces backed by Russia and Iran have advanced on the northwest province of Idlib, the last stronghold of the Turkish-backed opposition. But after last week, Turkey deployed dozens of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs or drones), as well as heavy artillery in the area, and opposition factions managed to take back some territory.

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Although the Turkish drone power has enabled the Syrian opposition to launch a counter-offensive against the Syrian government and stop its advance, it may not be enough to change significantly the status quo on the ground in northwest Syria.

“Assad lost the psychological advantage after the deployment of the Turkish drones and artillery. The regime forces cannot fight under such fire, which temporarily paralysed them,” said Kirill Semenev, a Moscow-based Middle East analyst. “But it’s unlikely that the opposition will be able to re-capture the positions it lost.”

He expressed doubt about the numbers of casualties and destroyed military assets released by the Turkish ministry and said al-Assad’s losses are “big but not critical”.

One of the factors that seems to have enabled the Turkish drone-led offensive has been Russia’s decreased military activity in the northwest. A Syrian opposition commander confirmed to Al Jazeera that Russian air raids have been relatively few over the past few days.

Last week, pro-Iranian media has accused Moscow of effectively (abandoning) Syrian government forces and Iranian militias on the Saraqeb front line.

According to Semenev, Russia and Turkey have an agreement, according to which the Turkish army can use drones over the de-escalation zone in Idlib, which is why Russian forces have avoided taking action against them. It is also possible that Russia wanted to avoid a major escalation with Turkey at this point, he added.

The Turkish government has also been explicit in its public rhetoric, it will target only Syrian regime forces and avoid a confrontation with Russia.

Kasapolgu pointed out the Turkish army has focused its artillery and drone power on the front in eastern Idlib, where Syrian government forces and Iranian militias have been fighting; at the same time, the offensive has been less intensive in the south where the Russian-backed Fifth Division has been deployed. The deployment of Russian military police to Saraqeb, however, could force the Turkish army to hold back on its fire.

These developments come as Erdogan and Russian President (Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet in Moscow on March 5 to discuss the situation in Syria. In recent weeks, there have been multiple meetings between Turkish and Russian delegations and phone calls between members of the two governments.

According to Marwan Kabalan, the director of policy analysis at the Arab Center for Research and Policy in Doha, Qatar, with its latest escalation in Syria, Turkey wants to pressure Russia into a new deal on northwest Syria before the March 5 meeting.

“The Turks are going to the summit with a much stronger position on the ground than they had a few days ago,” he said. “My understanding is that the Russians and the Turks will reach a new deal.”

In his view, Ankara is afraid of the Syrian government taking over the M4 and M5 highways and leaving a small strip of land for the three million displaced Syrians devoid of economic prospects and infrastructure, effectively turning it into “another Gaza “that would have to be financially supported by the Turkish government.

For this reason, Erdogan will likely pressure Putin to agree to a new de-escalation zone and a joint administration of the M4 and M5 highways, Kabalan said. If such agreement is reached, the Turkish offensive will likely subside after March 5, he added.

Follow Mariya Petkova on Twitter: @ mkpetkova

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