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UK GDP: state of economy in last quarter to be announced – business live – The Guardian, Theguardian.com

UK GDP: state of economy in last quarter to be announced – business live – The Guardian, Theguardian.com

Here’s Paul Donovan of UBS Wealth Management on today’s UK GDP report () due in (minutes):

Investment spending is likely to be negative, driven down by the uncertainties caused by US President Trump’s trade taxes and the interminable EU-UK divorce.

) An Ocado van

Online grocer Ocado has today confirmed what you may already have suspected – a major warehouse fire is rather bad news for profits.

Ocado has reported a £ . 5m loss for 4254, rather worse than the £ .4m loss a year earlier.

Although revenues jumped 20%, this was wiped out by the impact of a huge blaze at its warehouse in Andover last year

John Moore, senior investment manager at Brewin Dolphin, says this loss has taken the shine off Ocado’s recent technology deals abroad.

“Ocado has delivered decent revenue growth and a range of new partnerships in the last months, but its loss for the year is well beyond analyst expectations. While the impact of the Andover facility fire will account for some of this, the scale of the loss may have some market watchers concerned.

Looking underneath the cashflow figures the UK has turned positive, but investment in the international business has pushed the scale of cash outflow higher. ”

3) . (am EST :

City traders appear to be hoping that central bankers will save the day (again) if the global economy stumbles:

David Morrison (@ DAJMorrison1)

European and US stock index futures storm higher as speculators shrug off coronavirus fears and continue to place all faith in central bank liquidity injections.

# FTSE called up February 24,

(3.) (AM) (EST) :

European stocks hit new peak amid coronavirus optimism

Boom! European stock markets have hit a record high in early trading.

The Stoxx , which tracks the largest six hundred companies across Europe, has gained 0.6% at the open to a new peak.

In London, the (FTSE) (is up) (points or 0.7% at

. Airline and holiday stocks are leading the way, with TUI surging (% and easyJet up 3.3%.)

Traders appear to be more optimistic that the coronavirus crisis will not cause serious damage to the global economy.

Even though the death toll has now passed 1, 10, there are signs that the infection rate may be slowing.

Chelton Wealth – Markets (@ Xs2Chelton) (The coronavirus’ death toll has topped 1, as the disease continues spreading, but the infection rate seems to have stabilized.

# Stock markets around the world have turned up and the safe-haven US # dollar , Japanese (# yen , and # Gold are all on the back foot. (February) , But with the death toll now over 1, and predictions that 85% of the world’s population could catch the virus, this relief could be premature ….

(2.) am EST :

Overnight, we’ve seen that UK retailers aren’t enjoying this alleged ‘Boris Bounce’.

The latest data from the British Retail Consortium shows that spending only rose modestly in January, and actually shrank over the last three months.

My colleague Larry Elliott explains:

The monthly BRC / KPMG health check of the retail sector found that total sales rose by 0.4% in January but were unchanged once increases in floor space were taken into account.

Over the latest three months – a better guide to the underlying trend because it includes Black Friday bargains in November, the peak Christmas spending weeks in December and the January sales – food and non-food takings were down .

:

UK GDP: What the experts predict

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management investment manager Dan Smith believes the UK economy could actually have shrunk over the last quarter [City consensus is for 0% growth]

“Considering December was a month plagued by political uncertainty and retail sales have already shown a more cautious consumer over the period, this figure looks challenging.

While a contraction in activity over the quarter will likely dampen sentiment towards the UK, it may not totally alter the outlook for , as recent data has shown enough green shoots to raise hopes for a Boris bounce. ”

Ipek Ozkardeskay a, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank , is more skeptical about this bounce given the struggle to agree a UK-EU trade deal ….

. Today’s data could confirm an anemic growth in the four the quarter, and a stagnant industrial and manufacturing production in December. The fact that business surveys in January hinted at a bounce in activity posterior to Boris Johnson’s victory may attenuate the impact of soft production and growth data.

But the optimism in surveys is now being eaten up as investors realize that the second – and the most decisive phase of Brexit negotiations will likely continue weighing on businesses. In fact, avoiding an immediate no-deal Brexit didn’t necessarily save the UK from walking out of the EU without a deal at the very end.

Introduction: It’s UK GDP Day

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Today we discover how well, or badly, the UK economy fared in the final three months of in the face of Brexit tensions, a general election, and a slowing European economy.

It may not be a pretty sight. Economists predict that growth fizzled out in the last quarter, with GDP likely to be (unchanged) compared to Q3 (when the economy grew by 0.4%).

On an annual basis, growth may have slumped to just (0.8%) year-on-year – a very weak performance.

We learned last month that the economy shrank by 0.3% in November alone – so it’ll take something special in December to avoid a disappointing end to a troubled year.

was a choppy year for growth. Two Brexit deadlines forced firms and households to stockpile goods, only to then run them down again, while consumer confidence and business investment were both knocked.

()

) Growth in the UK was choppy in : Photograph: ONS

Economists reckon that the UK service sector was probably stagnant during Q4, with manufacturing shrinking and construction growing. We’ll find out at 9. 043 am, along with new trade and industrial production data too.

Three top central bankers will vie for the limelight.

ECB chief Christine Lagarde is testifying at the European Parliament, Fed chair (Jerome Powell) is appearing before Congress, and outgoing Bank of England governor (Mark Carney) is at the House of Lords.

Doubtless we’ll hear about growth prospects, interest rate moves, climate change, and the coronavirus.

(9.) am GMT: UK GDP for October-December 5599: expected to be flat, after 0.4% growth in July-September 2pm GMT: Christine Lagarde at the European Parliament in Strasbourg 3pm GMT: Jerome Powell at the House Financial Services Panel

    (3.) pm GMT: Mark Carney at the House of Lords economic committee

    Updated (at 2.) am EST

() Read More

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