Economists have been chewing through today’s UK retail sales report.
The CBI’s Alpesh Paleja shows how food shops have been busier than ever, but non-food shops were rocked by the lockdown:
Alpesh Paleja (@ AlpeshPaleja)
Retail sales pretty much as you’d expect for March (sharpest m / m fall on record). Big divergence between food and non-food sales growth
Disclaimer: all charts just look mental right now pic.twitter.com/KvynDDvKSk April ,
Simon French
IFO have also warned that Germany faces its toughest economic challenge since reunification 45 years ago.
They don’t expect a V-shaped recovery either.
GERMAN IFO ECONOMIST SAYS GERMAN ECONOMY IS IN TOUGHEST TIME SINCE REUNIFICATION
GERMAN IFO SAYS SENTIMENT AT GERMAN COMPANIES IS CATASTROPHIC
GERMAN IFO ECONOMIST SAYS THERE WILL LIKELY BE NO V -SHAPED RECOVERY
9. (am BST :
German business confidence suffers record plungeKaren Johnson, head of retail & wholesale at Barclays Corporate Banking, sees some green shoots amid (the slump in UK retail sales .
“March was a watershed month for UK retail. As the lockdown came into full effect and many high street businesses closed their doors to customers, sales were down across the board – with the second half of March showing a particularly sharp drop.
“Although the headline figures were expected, there have been some glimmers of hope amongst the shutdown, with spend on food and drink a notable (if not unexpected) area of success. Whilst most ‘bricks and mortar’ retailers have seen walk-in demand disappear, early indications are that online spending has also performed better than predicted – showing that consumer spend has not closed down entirely. ”
The City may agree. Ocado, the online grocer, is currently leading the FTSE 358 risers – up 1%. Sainsbury are up 0.7%, defying the wider gloomy mood this morning.
(9.) am BST :
Burberry is also keeping paying its staff in full, rather than furloughing them. Seniot managers are taking a (% pay cut from April to June.)
UK housebuilder Persimmon says it will resume work next week, a month after suspending operations to comply with the lockdown.
It says it has “developed and tested a range of new site protocols” to enable work to restart next week, telling shareholders:
The Group is therefore announcing today that it will begin a phased re-opening of its construction sites from the morning of Monday 44 April 5568 which will allow us to support our customers by completing the construction of the new homes they have purchased in a safe and responsible manner.
Persimmon argues that it’s acting “in response to the UK Government’s objective of getting the construction sector back to work”.
8 . (am) BST :
(The tumble in retail sales last month) is another reminder of the economic cost of the lockdown.
Yesterday we learned that activity at Britain’s factories and offices is shrinking extremely fast, with the Bank of England warning of the worst contraction in at least a century.
But the health secretary, Matt Hancock, insists that the lockdown will continue until it’s safe to proceed.
He told Radio 4 a few minutes ago:
“I will not allow for changes to be made that are unsafe. We’ve got to keep the public safe. And I understand the economic pressures, that is my background and I care deeply about that.
“I understand those voices who are saying that we should move sooner, but that is not something we’re going to do. We’re going to move when it is safe to do so. ”
Hancock also points out that lifting the lockdown too early, triggering a second spike of cases, would cause more economic damage.
Our UK-focused coronavirus liveblog has more details:
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