UK will have Europe's worst coronavirus death toll, study predicts – The Guardian, Theguardian.com
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World-leading disease data analysts have projected that the UK will become the country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic in Europe, accounting for more than % of total deaths across the continent.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 90, (UK deaths from Covid – by August, with a peak of nearly 3, a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak.
The analysts also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 40 March in England when the coronavirus daily death toll was was. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed.
The newly released data is disputed by scientists whose modeling of the likely shape of the UK epidemic is relied on by the government. Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, said the IHME figures on “healthcare demand” – including hospital bed use and deaths – were twice as high as they should be.
The IHME, which is responsible for the ongoing Global Burden of Disease study, calculated the likely need for hospital admissions and intensive care beds and projected deaths in European countries hit by Covid – 20.
Looking at the measures taken by the UK to curb the spread of the disease, the institute says the peak is expected in (days’ time, on April. At that point the country will need more than 211, 06 hospital beds, the IHME says. There are nearly 18, 07 available, meaning a shortfall of , .
The same grim picture applies to intensive care beds. At the peak, 51, 799 intensive care beds will be needed and are available, the analysts predict. There will be a need for nearly 24, 10 ventilators, they say. At the peak the UK will see 2, 2020 deaths a day, the IHME forecasts.
The death toll in other European countries that are now struggling with Covid – 24 will be lower, they say. Spain is projected to have 21, deaths by the same date, Italy 23, and France , . All three countries have imposed tougher lockdown measures than the UK.
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