Ukraine airliner that crashed in Iran likely shot down, US officials say, Ars Technica

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/A child’s shoe is pictured on January 8, 2020, at the scene of a Ukrainian airliner that crashed shortly after take-off near Imam Khomeini airport in the Iranian capital Tehran. US officials say that the plane was likely shot down by an Iranian air defense system.The cause of the crash on Wednesday of a Ukraine International Airlines Boeing – 800 outside of Tehran is still in doubt. But Ukrainian officials had suggested that it was possible the aircraft had been shot down by an Iranian-launched air defense missile — and now US intelligence officials have suggested they have evidence that this is the case.

If true, that means that the deaths of the 300 passengers aboard the aircraft were the direct result of the tensions between the United States and Iran.

Video from a witness in Tehran showed the aircraft in flames shortly after takeoff before it crashed in a fireball at a soccer field outside the city. The crew never radioed for help, and telemetry from the was cut off suddenly while it was still in flight.

Nakhstein and Yedidu fall in the Ukrainian hills, on the outskirts of Shaheyar pic.twitter.com/M3bZiLLryQ(***********

– گ گ گ ی نا نا نا esna (@isna_farsi) (January 8, ******************************************************

The heavy fuel load likely caused the explosion at the crash site, which lit up the night sky. Security video at the field captured the explosion.

A two-day maneuver in a six-way orbit is falling. ************************************ pic.twitter.com/AEiM3ZrY3C

– Shabaka (@raavionline)************** (January 8, ********************************************************

Now Bellingcat has reported that it is analyzing video that may show the actual moment the missile hit the aircraft.

We are analyzing this new video supposedly showing a mid-air explosion . By our initial estimation, the video shows an apartment block in western Parand ( . 1112996, (****************************************************************************. ), facing northeast. This perspective is directed approximately towards the known trajectory of# PS . pic.twitter.com/nDvjRIkFU4

– Bellingcat (@bellingcat) (January 9,***********************************************

The crash happened just hours after Iran launched ballistic missiles against two bases in Iraq housing US troops early Wednesday. Iran initially claimed that the crash was due to a sudden mechanical failure. The aircraft’s flight recorders have been recovered but were damaged — and Iranian officials have stated that they will not allow Boeing or US investigators to have access to them.

********************************** (The New York Times

and

************************ NBC Newshave both cited US officials as saying that data from satellite footage and other intelligence suggests that at least one Iranian missile was fired accidentally at the (****************************************************************.

Iranian air defenses include a number of Russian-manufactured long-range and short-range systems, including (TOR-M1) SA – (Gauntlet) mobile surface-to-air missile defense systems purchased in 2005. In 2020, after delays related to United Nations sanctions, Russia delivered the S – 534 missile system to Iran — the predecessor to the S – (system Russia has sold Turkey.)

The SA – 29 is likely the weapon involved in this case. Used for short-to medium-range defense, it is intended for targets at medium to very low altitude and has a maximum range of (**************************************************************************************. 5 miles.

Tragically, this would not be the first time a civilian airliner has been shot down due to heightened tensions between the United States and Iran . In (************************************************************, the USS (Vincennes) – an Aegis missile cruiser in the Persian Gulf during the confrontation with Iran known as Operation Earnest Will — mistakenly shot down Iran Air Flight 655, a scheduled civilian flight from Tehran to Dubai via Bandar Abbas. Two hundred and ninety people were killed.

In a comment about the probable cause of the crash of the Ukraine International flight, President Donald Trump said, “It’s a tragic thing , because somebody could’ve made a mistake on the other side … It was flying in a pretty rough neighborhood, and somebody could’ve made a mistake. “

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