US green economy’s growth dwarfs the fossil fuel industry’s, Ars Technica

        

While US President Donald Trump may be “the world’s most powerful climate change denier, ”our latest researchsuggests that he took over a thriving green economy.

According to new data, by 2016 it was generating more than$ 1.3 trillionin annual revenue and employed approximately9.5 million people– making it the largest green market in the world. It’s been growing rapidly too — between 2013 and 2016, both the industry’s value and employment figures grew by 20 percent.

For some time, economic data on the green economy in many countrieshas been lacking. In the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics stopped measuring jobs in the green economy in March 2013 due to budget cuts. This meant that US politicians were not able to make informed decisions about the relative merits of supporting green industry or backing fossil fuels — as Trumphad pledged to doduring his 2016 campaign.

To fill this knowledge gap, we analyzed massive databases to record the latest available business transactions from every country in the world. We estimated sales revenue and employment figures across 24 economic sub-sectors covering renewable energy, environmental protection, and low carbon goods and services – collectively termed the green economy. We used this same standardized method across all countries, allowing us to make meaningful comparisons between them.

Our study estimates that revenue in the global green economy was $ 7. 87 trillion in 2016. At $ 1.3 trillion, the USmade up 5 percentof the global market — the largest in the world.

Our analysis also suggests that in the US, nearly ten times more people were employed in the green economy and its supply chains (9.5 million) than employed directly in the fossil fuel industry (roughly 1 million) —that is, miners, electricity grid workers, infrastructure manufacturers and construction workers. This wide gap comes despite the US fossil fuel industry receiving huge subsidies,estimated at $ (billion in)Alone.

America first?

Importantly, the green economy has been growing faster than Trump’s wildest dreams for the fossil fuel industry. As a presidential candidate in 2016, Trump set out his“America first” energy policy, promising to add 400, 00 0 new jobs to the fossil fuel industry. During the campaign, he suggested that he could increase the industry’s economic output by $ 700 Billion over (years.)

Our data indicates that the green economy grew by over $ (billion per year) and 2016. This dwarfs Trump’s best hopes for growth in the fossil fuel industry, which equate to an annual increase in value of $ (billion.

Employment in the US green economy also grew by the equivalent of 1.5m full-time jobs during this time, whereas coal mining jobsdeclined by 37, (0) over the same period.

A precarious position

These are strong numbers. But after three years of faltering support, the US’s position as a world leader in the green economy is precarious. Up to now, Trump’s campaign rhetoric has not been backed up by major policy changes, although his rollback of a number ofObama era regulationshas likely helped the fossil fuel industry in the short term. But unlike Trump, competing superpowers arestrongly backing renewables.

China, for example, hasemerged as a global climate leaderin the wake of Trump’s determination topull out of the Paris Agreement. In 2017, it announced plans to invest$ 361 billionin clean energy by 2020 to generate 13 million jobs. This investment alone could go a long way to closing the gap between the value of the US’s green economy and that of China’s, the second largest in the world.Other countries are also poisedto overtake the US in the race to shape the global green economy.

The Green New Deal –popularized by Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and others—Is an ambitious policy agenda that could reestablish the US’s commitment to the green economy. It proposes massive investment in renewable energy and an environment-friendly public works program of gargantuan scale. Phasing out direct fossil fuel subsides couldfree up some of the funding requiredfor such investment.

It’s not for us to say whether the Green New Deal is right for the US. But whatour datadoes say loud and clear is this: if you want a strong economy that supports thousands of new jobs, then supporting its green quarters is essential. And of course, it will help our imperiled planet too.

Lucien Georgeson, Researcher, Green Economy and Sustainable Development, UCL andMark Maslin, Professor of Earth System Science, UCL .This article is republished fromThe Conversationunder a Creative Commons license. Read the (original article.