Nigel Faragewas under huge pressure to rip up his election plans last night after an analysis showed he risks wrecking Tory hopes of snatching dozens of Leave -leaning seats from Labor.
If the Brexit Party choose not to stand and 70 per cent of their backers switch to the Tories (while 30 per cent go to Labor), then the Conservatives could take 38 target seats offJeremy Corbyn‘s party.
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An audit by the Daily Mail found Boris Johnson could miss out in almost 90 battleground constituencies if the pro-Brexit vote is split between the Tories and the Brexit Party
Boris Johnson looks at old photographs of London with students at a primary school in Bury St Edmunds today
Jeremy Corbyn poses for a selfie with Labor candidate Hannah O’Neil (left) and activists in Milton Keynes today
Boris Johnson opens up MASSIVE 17 point poll lead over Jeremy Corbyn and the Labor Party
Boris Johnson has urged voters to back his ‘oven-ready’ Brexit deal at the ballot box on December 12 as he started the general election campaign with a massive 17 point poll lead over Jeremy Corbyn.
An Ipsos Mori survey conducted for the Evening Standard between October 25 – (has the Tories on) per cent – up eight points since September.
But Labor is far behind on 24 per cent and only narrowly ahead of Jo Swinson and the Liberal Democrats on 20 per cent.
An Ipsos Mori survey for the Evening Standard gives the Tories a 17 point lead over Labor with the Lib Dems in third place in 20 per cent
The poll has Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party on just seven per cent as Mr Johnson appears to be winning back Leave voters who may have ditched the Tories for the upstart movement.
Meanwhile, the Tories have a 15 point poll lead over Labor in a new YouGov survey conducted for The Times.
The Tories and the Labor Party were in similar positions in the polls at the start of the 2017 general election campaign but ultimately ended up with 42 per cent and 40 per cent of the total vote share on polling day.
A 2019 general election poll tracker suggests that the Tories are gaining ground while the Labor Party is struggling to make progress
Mr Johnson could win a further 50 Labor-held seats if all those forecast to vote for the Brexit Party instead switch their support to him. The analysis is based on projections produced by the firm Electoral Calculus, based on current polling.
Mr Farage, who will launch the Brexit Party’s campaign tomorrow morning in London, has suggested he will target Leave-backing seats in Labor’s northern heartlands rather than those held by Tory Eurosceptics.
But this could still deprive Mr Johnson of victory because they are the sort of constituencies that the Prime Minister needs to gain if he is to get a Commons majority.
The Electoral Calculus projections, using the latest national polling, show there are swathes of seats currently held by Labor, which the Tories are now in touching distance of snatching.
Dewsbury, where Labor’s Paula Sherriff won with a 3, 321 majority in 2017, is now on a knife edge according to the estimates.
The modeling predicts Labor will pick up a 36 .6 per cent share of votes in the seat, with the Tories only narrowly behind on 35 .2 per cent. The Brexit Party would trail on 12 .2 per cent.
Mr Johnson was steadied by Met Police commissioner Cressida Dick as he visited a self-defense class at the force’s college in Hendon, north London, yesterday
Mr Johnson pictured on the campaign trail at a self defense class in Hendon yesterday
The PM today insisted that he can be trusted to deliver Brexit despite breaking his ‘do or die’ vow
If the Brexit Party was removed and its support re-allocated with the majority (70 per cent) going to the Tories and 30 per cent to Labor, then the seat would flip to Mr Johnson’s party.
According to the projections, similar scenarios exist in a total of 37 other seats, including Birmingham Erdington, Burnley, Bury North, Halifax, Hartlepool, Hyndburn, and Sedgefield.
Quick election briefing
- Labor’s election launch descended into chaos as its Jewish affiliate said it would not campaign for a party victory and Jeremy Corbyn was forced to suggest his unpopularity should not stand in the way of people voting Labor
- In an extraordinary interview, Donald Trump urged Boris Johnson to do a deal with Nigel Farage to stop Mr Corbyn taking power
- Daily Mail analysis found the Brexit Party could wreck Tory hopes of snatching 38 target seats from Labor unless it stands aside
- The Conservatives surged to a 17 – point lead in a new poll
- Mr Johnson said he had an ‘oven ready’ Brexit deal which could see the UK leave the EU by January at the latest
- It emerged decisions on HS2 and Huawei will be deferred until after the election
- The Tories unveiled plans to hand millions of pounds to 100 towns to help them boost their high streets
- Labor MP Keith Vaz was suspended from the Commons amid angry scenes on John Bercow’s last day as Speaker.
Should all of the forecast Brexit party vote be transferred to the Tories, then Mr Johnson’s party could gain as many as another 50 seats.
The Brexit Party will kickstart its election campaign at an event tomorrow morning featuring Mr Farage and ‘surprise guest speakers’. It is expected to reveal how many candidates it will field and where they will stand.
Mr Farage and the party’s chairman Richard Tice are also likely to announce which constituencies they will run in. It will be Mr Farage’s eighth attempt at becoming an MP.
The party is understood to be engulfed in a behind-the-scenes row over how many seats to contest, with some MEPs threatening to quit if they create difficulties for the Tories and others saying they will go if they withdraw candidates in hundreds of constituencies.
Mr Farage had originally said that the party would field 600 to fight nearly every seat in the UK, except for Northern Ireland.
Yesterday he refused to rule out the prospect of the Brexit Party withdrawing hundreds of candidates in order to target a small number of Labor-held seats .
Mr Farage said: ‘I’ve ruled nothing in, I’ve ruled nothing out. I am making a completely neutral comment ahead of our launch. ‘
But elections expert and Tory peer Robert Hayward said there was’ no certainty’ that the withdrawal of Brexit Party candidates would automatically help the Tories.
He conceded: ‘In large swathes of the Midlands, North and Wales, Brexit voters are ex-Labor voters and would (to misuse a well-known phrase or saying) rather die in a ditch than vote Tory. ‘
Boris Johnson, pictured in Bury St Edmunds today, has urged voters to give him a majority on December 12 so that he can implement his ‘oven-ready’ Brexit deal
The PM made pictures of fireworks with students at the primary school as he hit the campaign trail in earnest
Mr Farage , who will launch the Brexit Party’s campaign tomorrow morning in London
Remainers want a pact to squeeze out Jacob Rees-Mogg
Mr Rees-Mogg leaving a cabinet meeting at No 10 on October 24
Liberal Democrat supporters are calling for a Remain alliance to oust Jacob Rees-Mogg from his constituency.
The party believes it has a strong chance of defeating the Commons Leader in the North East Somerset seat he has held since its creation in 2010. Arch-Brexiteer Mr Rees-Mogg has a majority of more than 10, 000, with Labor in second place. But *** Remainers believe that can be overhauled.
The Bath and North East Somerset Lib Dems yesterday tweeted a poll which puts them just six points behind the Tories in the constituency – although it later emerged the poll had asked who voters would pick if the Labor Party were not in the running.
The Lib Dems tweeted: ‘If we work together, and back [Lib Dem candidate Nick Coates] we will beat Jacob Rees-Mogg. ‘
The constituency voted narrowly for Leave at the 2016 EU referendum but the Lib Dems believe uniting the Remain vote could power them to victory.
The party are in talks with the Greens and Plaid Cymru over a ‘Remain Alliance’ electoral pact. However the pact would not include Labor.
Tactical voting deals could dominate the forthcoming election, at which Brexit which will be the central issue.
- The exodus of moderate Tory women from parliament ‘should shame us all’, a minister said.
Nusrat Ghani spoke out after a string of prominent women MPs, including Nicky Morgan and Amber Rudd announced they are going. Several said that abuse generated by the Brexit debate was a factor in their decision.
They are part of a wider exodus of Tory Remainers. Moderates pointed out that many of the men leaving are at the end of their careers, but the women are typically much younger.
Donald Trump tells Nigel Farage: Do a deal with the PM to keep out Jeremy Corbyn
By Jason Groves, John Stevens and Claire Ellicott for the Daily Mail
Donald Trump last night piled pressure on Nigel Farage to forge a pact with Boris Johnson and save Britain from Jeremy Corbyn.
In an extraordinary intervention, the US President said the PM and Brexit Party leader would be an ‘unstoppable force’ if they teamed up for the General Election. Mr Trump said of the Labor leader: ‘Corbyn would be so bad for your country. He’d take you into such bad places. ‘
And the President rubbished Mr Corbyn’s claim that the NHS was’ on the table’ in talks about a US trade deal, saying: ‘We wouldn’t even be involved in that … it’s not for us to have anything to do with your healthcare system. No, we’re just talking about trade. ‘
Donald Trump, pictured in December last year, urged Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson to strike an election pact. He said they would be an ‘unstoppable force’ if they formed an alliance
It came as Mr Farage prepared to reveal this morning whether he will bow to calls to soft-pedal against the Conservatives in next month’s election to help ensure a parliamentary majority for Brexit.
Senior Brexit Party figures have urged Mr Farage to stand down hundreds of candidates to give Mr Johnson a clear run and ensure that Brexit is finally delivered.
One source said ‘dozens and dozens’ of Tory MPs had urged the party to stand aside or risk seeing Brexit thwarted again. But Mr Farage last night indicated he will not back down unless the PM abandons his Brexit deal and agrees to go for a ‘clean break’ with the EU.
Mr Trump said Jeremy Corbyn, pictured launching his election campaign in London, would be ‘so bad’ for the UK
Mr Trump’s diplomatic hand grenade came as:
- Mr Johnson, hitting the campaign trail for the first time, pledged to deliver Brexit by January ‘at the absolute latest’;
- Mr Corbyn’s campaign launch was knocked off course after the party’s main Jewish organization refused to campaign for him to become PM ;
- A senior ally of Mr Corbyn vowed to drive the rich out of Britain, saying: ‘I don’t think anyone in this country should be a billionaire’;
- An analysis by the Mail found the Conservatives will miss out in almost 90 battleground constituencies if the pro-Leave vote is split between the Tories and the Brexit Party;
- A new poll gave the Tories A 17 – point lead over Labor;
- Diane Abbott pleaded with Labor MP Keith Vaz to quit after he was suspended for six months for offering to buy cocaine for male prostitutes;
- Mr Trump defended his controversial attempt to broker a meeting between the family of British teenager Harry Dunn and the US diplomat’s wife accused of killing him in a road acc ident, saying he had hoped they could ‘grieve together’;
- US President appeared to take a swipe at the Duchess of Sussex’s criticism of her media treatment, saying: ‘She’s taking it very personally’;
Mr Trump’s intervention came in an interview on Mr Farage’s show on LBC Radio.
The US President heaped praise on Mr Johnson, describing him as a ‘terrific guy’ who would deliver Brexit.
Mr Trump repeatedly appealed to Mr Farage to join forces with the Conservatives at the election, telling him: ‘I’d like to see you and Boris get together cause you would really have some numbers – you did fantastically in the last election, and he respects you a lot. I just wish you two guys could get together – I think it would be a great thing. ‘
The key quotes from Donald Trump’s interview with Nigel Farage
On the PM’s Brexit deal: ‘To be honest with you this deal under certain aspects of the deal you can’t do it, you can’t do it , you can’t trade, I mean we can’t make a trade deal with the UK. ‘
On Mr Farage:’ You’re like a great tea leaf reader. ”
On a Tory / Brexit Party pact: ‘I wish you two guys could get together I think it would be a great thing … if you and he get together as, you know, unstoppable force. ‘
On meeting the Queen:’ A great, great woman, and I think we hit it off really well. ‘
On Theresa May: ‘I told her exactly how to make a deal but she didn’t listen to me and that’s okay, not everybody listens to me, some people do.’
On Jeremy Corbyn: ‘Corbyn would be so bad for your country. He’d be so bad, he’d take you in such a bad way. He’d take you into such bad places. ‘
On Brexit:’ I think they’re gonna get that done. People are tired of hearing about. We’re even tired of hearing about it over here. I think you’ll get that done. ‘
But the Brexit Party leader was circumspect about the chances of an electoral pact.
Mr Farage said the PM had brought ‘a tremendous amount of energy to the job’.
But he remained critical of Mr Johnson’s Brexit deal – and suggested he would only back down if the PM switched to a No Deal strategy. He told Mr Trump: ‘If he drops this dreadful deal, fights the General Election on the basis that we just want to have trade with Europe but no political influence, do you know what? I would be right behind him. ’
Mr Corbyn has repeatedly claimed that US corporations could be given access to the NHS as part of a new post-Brexit trade deal. The claim looks set to be a central part of Labor’s election campaign, despite direct denials from Mr Johnson, Trade Secretary Liz Truss and Health Secretary Matt Hancock.
Mr Trump last night said it was untrue – and suggested Mr Corbyn had made it up.
He said: ‘I mean, it’s so ridiculous I think Corbyn put that out there.’
Mr Corbyn hit back, accusing Mr Trump of ‘trying to interfere in Britain’s election to get his friend Boris Johnson elected’. He said the President had put the NHS ‘on the table’ in trade talks, adding: ‘He knows if Labor wins, US corporations won’t get their hands on it. Our NHS is not for sale. ‘
Mr Trump’s intervention was not entirely helpful to the Prime Minister.
The President said he was ‘disappointed’ that Mr Johnson – who marks 100 days in office today – had not managed to deliver Brexit, and he warned that a comprehensive free trade agreement could be impossible to negotiate under the terms of the PM’s Brexit deal.