What is happening with the vote on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal
The prime minister tried to have a meaningful yes / no vote on hisBrexitdeal on Saturday, but parliament passed an amendment withholding support until full legislation on the withdrawal agreement has been scrutinised. This meant he had to send a letter to the EU requesting a three-month extension to article 50.
Not to be deterred, Johnson will try again on Monday to secure parliament’s support for his Brexit deal in a yes / no meaningful vote. But there is widespread suspicion that he just wants it to pass in order to be able to withdraw his request for a Brexit delay.
There are two ways this could be thwarted. Firstly, John Bercow, the Speaker, could rule it out of order because the motion was already debated on Saturday. Secondly, MPs could stagea repeat of Saturdayand amend the motion to again withhold support for it until full legislation is passed. It could be Brexit Groundhog Day.
Will the prime minister bring forward legislation this week?
Regardless of the meaningful vote, Johnson is planning to bring forward the withdrawal agreement bill this week. A vote on second reading could come as soon as Tuesday. MPs would have to say aye or no on whether to let it go through to the next stage of its journey through the House of Commons. Then comes the interesting bit: if it passes, MPs have the opportunity to debate possible amendments, likely to be on whether to add a customs union, a second referendum and to extend transitional arrangements with the EU to prevent the UK crashing out in 2020.
The new Brexit deal is essentially the oldBrexitdeal with a new chapter on the protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland and a few key tweaks to the political declaration. Here is alink to the full text.
The backstop is replaced
The backstop has essentially been replaced by a full stop whereby Northern Ireland remains aligned to the EU from the end of the transition period for at least four years. A change can only happen if it is voted on by the Stormont assembly.
Consent
Stormont will have a key role in future Brexit arrangements. And if there is cross-community support to remain aligned to the EU rather than the UK the consent will hold for eight years.
The arrangements in this deal will automatically kick in for a mandated four years if there is a breakdown in trade talks, so it remains a “backstop” but with a permanent tinge.
That four -year period will start at the end of December 2020.
Two months before the end of the four-year period, that is October 2024 , Stormont will be asked to vote on whether to remain aligned to the EU in ways outlined by this deal or not.
Checks on border, ports and airports
Under the deal, the UK and the EU are “underlining their firm commitment to no customs and regulatory checks or controls and related physical infrastructure at the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland”.
Future trade deals
The EU and the UK will aim for a zero-tariff deal with unlimited quotas. The entire UK, including Northern Ireland, will be free to sign trade deals. The line in the political declaration that “the United Kingdom will consider aligning with union rules in relevant areas” in any future trade talks has been ditched.
Customs
Northern Ireland will remain legally in the UK customs territory but practically in the EU customs unions. There will therefore be no customs checks on the border but tariffs will be payable on certain commercial goods.
No customs duties will be payable on “personal property” being transited from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. That protects online shopping and all items bought for personal rather than commercial use.
Customs duties will be payable on goods imported from the UK for commercial use unless it can be demonstrated that the goods remain in Northern Ireland or are for personal use, as above.
A system of rebates will allow importers to be reimbursed.
West / east trade
The commitment to frictionless trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain is restated.
VAT
EU law on VAT will apply in Northern Ireland.
Single electricity market
The island of Ireland is considering a single market for electricity so homes in Northern Ireland can get their energy from a supplier in Northern Ireland or the republic. There were fears this could be disrupted by Brexit. Under the Johnson deal, the provisions of union law remain so nothing will change.
Level playing field
This guarantees that the UK will remain in line with EU conventions on climate, environment and workers rights in a future trade agreement.
Lisa O’CarrollBrexit correspondent
Are any amendments likely to pass
It is quite possible that customs union and transition extension amendments could pass with support from the opposition, some Tory rebels and formerConservatives. The second referendum amendment looks trickier from a numbers point of view.
If opposition amendments were to pass, Johnson would have to decide whether he could live with them. Conservative hardliners would be unlikely to accept a new mandate to negotiate a customs union, but No 10 might be able to accept a parliamentary vote on whether to extend transitional arrangements in 2020. If the amendments are deemed unacceptable, the prime minister might decide to pull the bill entirely and try to proceed to a general election.
Laborcould then agree to an election or try to find a way of forcing a second referendum in alliance with other parties. However, first the EU would have to grant an extension to article 50. If it rejected an extension, parliament would then face a choice of deal or no deal (or revoking article 50).
Will the UK leave the EU on (October), or hasBrexit been delayed again?
The UK will probably only leave the EU at the end of the month if a deal has been passed through parliament or the EU rejects a request for an extension, which it will consider next week. The House of Commons and House of Lords could possibly have to sit round the clock and through the weekend in order to pass all the necessary legislation in time to get a deal done. It would only leave without a deal if the EU refused an extension and parliament refused to approve Johnson’s Brexit deal.
What about the prospects of an election?
Johnson is likely to go for an election within months regardless, given that he has no majority. If he passes a deal unamended, then he could well wait until next year. But if his deal is struggling in parliament, he could proceed to an election pretty quickly in order to try to get a mandate for leaving with the agreement he negotiated.
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