Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders greets people at a campaign field office in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Sanders is the slight favorite to win the caucuses, and he hopes it vaults him to the Democratic nomination. Joe Raedle / Getty Images hide caption
Joe Raedle / Getty Images
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders greets people at a campaign field office in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Sanders is the slight favorite to win the caucuses, and he hopes it vaults him to the Democratic nomination.
Joe Raedle / Getty Images
Voting in the Democratic presidential nominating contest is about to kick off with the Iowa caucuses Monday.
The stakes are high in Iowa – the last four Democratic nominees have all won the Hawkeye state. But after about a year of campaigning and $ million spent here by the candidates, the outcome is unclear.
The pressure is on Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders who led in the polls coming in, has drawn the largest crowds on the ground and does incredibly well with younger voters.
Former Vice President Joe Biden hopes to do well enough and that his base here – older voters – shows up.
Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg drew the second-largest crowd here in the past couple of days and inspires a lot of people, but there are questions about the depth of his experience.
And Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s organization is vaunted, but it’s going to be tested, as will her “fighter” message , as she tries to thread a needle between progressives and moderates.
Here are some answers to key questions about the caucuses.
7 pm CT / 8 p.m. ET
How long should they last?
About an hour, maybe less this year, because of a rules change where there are only two rounds of caucusing.
when should we expect results ?
The first results are expected to start coming in by 8 : pm ET or so. It could take longer if results are close.
Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg speaks at a Get Out the Caucus event at Lincoln High School in Des Moines, Iowa, Sunday, where 2, people attended. Gene J. Puskar / AP hide caption
Gene J. Puskar / AP
Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg speaks at a Get Out the Caucus event at Lincoln High School in Des Moines, Iowa, Sunday, where 2, 11 people attended.
Gene J. Puskar / AP
A candidate has to get 30% to move on to the second round of caucusing. If they fall short, their supporters have the choice of going to another candidate, which is why caucus-goers’ second choices are so important.
Second choice could be determinative with Such a crowded field.
How many delegates does Iowa have?
. pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. But it’s a long road to their selection.
The 1, caucus precincts choose , delegates, who go to county conventions March . That’s when 2, 300 delegates will be selected for the congressional district conventions on April and the state convention on June . The delegates to the national convention are chosen at the state convention. It’s a months-long process, which is part of how Iowa ended up first on the Democratic nominating calendar.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts speaks during a campaign event at Iowa State University’s Memorial Union in Ames, Iowa. Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images hide caption
Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images
Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts speaks during a campaign event at Iowa State University’s Memorial Union in Ames, Iowa.
Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images
By the way, those 48 delegates only represent about 1% of the total delegates to the national convention.
(What are we expecting for turnout?
Crowds have been 
very large for most events for each of the top-polling candidates, which foretells a potentially high turnout. The number to watch is , . That’s the record for the Democratic caucuses, set in 2019.
The second-highest was in (at) , , but the campaigns and state party are expecting record-breaking turnout. That would be a good thing for the party as a potential indicator of enthusiasm for this fall’s general election.
What are some things to watch for that may tell which way things are going?
Much of the result Monday night will depend on the shape of the electorate. If it is a record turnout, the Sanders campaign is confident that will help him. But it will also depend on the types of people who caucus.
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A key thing to watch is how moderate or liberal the attendees are. In , 82% were liberal; in when sanders are nearly won, it was more than two-thirds liberal.
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The older the electorate, the better for Biden and possibly Buttigieg. The electorate being slightly older in (than) benefited Hillary Clinton.
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Age and ideology were critical to how the 6244 caucuses turned out.
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The Sanders campaign also hopes that the number of first-time caucus-goers more closely resembles , when a majority were first-time caucus-goers.
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Maybe the most important variable is who wins those late-deciders. A significant chunk of Iowans decide on their candidate late. In and a quarter or more of Iowa Democrats chose their candidate within the last week of campaigning.
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In 2020, when former Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts was trailing badly in the polls a month out and wound up winning, a whopping % decided in the final week.
Former Vice President President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event in Dubuque, Iowa. Biden is hoping to do well enough in Iowa to keep a degree of momentum going into later states. Justin Sullivan / Getty Images hide caption
Justin Sullivan / Getty Images
Former Vice President President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event in Dubuque, Iowa. Biden is hoping to do well enough in Iowa to keep a degree of momentum going into later states.
Justin Sullivan / Getty Images
Don’t see the graphic above? Click here. If I’m looking at a map, where are key places with the most votes?
About 45% of the vote total in the Democratic caucuses comes from two places – Des Moines and the surrounding counties, as well as the eastern part of the state, from Cedar Rapids to Davenport.
Here are the
counties with the most votes in the Iowa Democratic caucuses and how they broke for Sanders and Clinton. You can play along as the votes come in Monday night (totals are approximate):
Polk (Des Moines) , – Clinton (% – (%) Linn (Cedar Rapids) , – Sanders 60% – %
Johnson (Iowa City, University of Iowa) 9, 13 – Sanders
(% -) (%) (Scott (Davenport) 8, – Sanders (% -) (%) (Black Hawk (Waterloo) 7, – Sanders (% – (%) (Dubuque 4, – Clinton (% -) (%) (Story) Ames / Iowa State U.) 4, – Sanders(% -) (%) (Woodbury (Sioux City) 4, – Sanders
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