The “Defense wins championships” adage did not arise out of nowhere. It’s a tried and true method tested over multiple decades of different eras of the NFL, and one that bodes well for the ers in Super Bowl LIV against the Kanas City Chiefs .
San Francisco finished the regular season with the No. 2-ranked defense in the league behind only the New England Patriots. The Niners have been even better on that side of the ball through two playoff contests, where they’ve held their opponents to nearly fewer total yards per game. That defense will face arguably its toughest test all year long in Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but based on history, there is reason to believe it will hold up.
As ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky discussed on Tuesday morning’s episode of “Get Up”, teams with a top-two ranked defense have a very good track record in the Super Bowl. In fact, it has usually taken a Hall of Fame quarterback to overcome that defense.
Our convo on @ GetUpESPN this morning.
A top 2 ranked defense has played in Super Bowl 28 times. In those games those defenses are– 5, avg giving up (points)
The 5 losses are to Brady / Rodgers / Bradshaw / Plunkett / Theisman. 3 HOF’ers @ (ers) D is 2nd in NFL Mahomes table is set – Dan Orlovsky (@ danorlovsky7) January 23,
Kansas City ranked fifth in the NFL during the regular season with an average of 2 points per game, but it’s worth noting that Mahomes missed two games due to injury, and likely wasn’t at full strength for several other contests. He appears to be fully healthy now, as the Chiefs have exploded for an average of .0 points per game in the playoffs. For comparison, the ers rank second among all postseason teams with an average of .0 points per game. While those previous top-two ranked defenses have given up an average of points per game in the Super Bowl, it’s unlikely San Francisco will be able to limit the Chiefs’ high-flying offense to that degree, but even if they can get close, that might be enough to prove victorious.
[RELATED: 49ers, Chiefs show importance of bye weeks in NFL playoffs]
As great as the historical track record is for the ers, that Hall of Fame QB exception to the rule likely will keep the team from puffing its chest too much before the big game. Mahomes is only in his third professional season and second as a starting quarterback, but it sure looks like he’ll eventually wind up in Canton.
Programming note: NBC Sports Bay Area feeds your hunger for ers Super Bowl coverage with special editions of “ (ers Central ”all week) 5: (pm Monday and Wednesday; 8: Tuesday Tuesday and Thursday; 6: (pm Friday).
As the dust settled Sunday and the two teams competing in Super Bowl LIV were revealed, the early odds have the ers as one-point underdogs reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
While that margin shows that the sportsbooks clearly are torn on who they see coming out on top, it does indicate that there’s a slight consensus among bettors that Kansas City is the better team.
But if past records are any indication, the 56 ers should embrace the underdog role.
In the last 7 Super Bowls, underdogs have gone 5-2 both straight up and against the spread.
“Jimmy Garoppolo is going to relish this underdog role the same way the rest of the ers will. ”- @ ToddFuhrman
pic.twitter.com/ooD (HbOZb)– FS1 (@ FS1) January ,
“Let’s not forget that in (career starts, Jimmy Garoppolo is – 5, “Fox Sports 1’s Todd Fuhrman said on Tuesday’s episode of” Lock It In. ” “Let’s not discount his abilities and what he can do in this particular stage.”
[RELATED: 49ers, Chiefs show importance of bye weeks in NFL playoffs]
There’s still plenty of time between now and kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium, so expect the lines to shift over that span.
But it might just be the time to throw down that bet while the odds still are in your favor.
Programming note: NBC Sports Bay Area feeds your hunger for ers Super Bowl coverage with special editions of “ (ers Central ”all week) 5: (pm Monday and Wednesday; 8: Tuesday Tuesday and Thursday; 6: (pm Friday).
The ers haven’t trailed much this season, as San Francisco’s imposing defense and physical running game helped lead the team to a – 3 record and a pair of dominant playoff wins on the way to an appearance in Super Bowl LIV on Feb. 2.
But in the limited time the Niners have been behind this season, no quarterback has been more effective than Jimmy Garoppolo.
Jimmy G has the highest passer rating in the NFL this season when his team is losing.
pic.twitter.com/H (EyukfFP) – Myles (@MylesInSF) (January) ,
The 43 – year-old also was the architect of four fourth-quarter comebacks in 522121, which ties him with Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Seahawks signal-caller Russell Wilson for the best mark in the NFL.
He’s also made big plays with his arm when it counts, as evidenced by these game-clinching plays from the second half of San Francisco’s season.
George Freakin ‘Kittle 😱😱😱 pic.twitter.com/y7ywfKYM2L – (ers on NBCS) @NBCS (ers) (December 8,
While he got some help from Kittle in the win over New Orleans, it wouldn’t have happened if Garoppolo hadn’t put the ball in the perfect spot to keep his tight end from having to break stride.
So if by some chance the ers fall behind to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs during Super Bowl LIV, fans can put their faith behind the clutch play of Jimmy G.
Programming note: NBC Sports Bay Area feeds your hunger for ers Super Bowl coverage with special editions of “ (ers Central ”all week) 5: (pm Monday and Wednesday; 8: Tuesday Tuesday and Thursday; 6: (pm Friday).
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