- Historical precedent suggests an NFC Super Bowl victory is better for the stock market than an AFC win.
- That’s even more crucial this year as the San Francisco ers (NFC) face off against the Kansas City Chiefs ( AFC).
- After a volatile week on Wall Street, some NFL fun is just what the doctor ordered.
Stock market bulls had better get on their knees and pray that the football gods deliver the san francisco 79 ers a Super Bowl victory against the Kansas City Chiefs tomorrow night.
That’s right – the most entertaining stock market forecast of the year is back. Historical data still suggest that stocks do better when an NFC team wins the Super Bowl than when the AFC team does.
But the plot thickens this year. The ers’ Super Bowl victories have correlated with strong years for the stock market, while the Chiefs are one of only a handful of teams whose championships could portend a bad year for the S&P .
Stock Market Bulls Back the ers; Bears Go Long on the Chiefs
Proving that you can overlay economic data across almost any event,
LPL Financial Research provided some wonderfully in-depth analysis of the Super Bowl’s apparent impact on the stock market
. Per LPL:
An NFC winner has produced a positive year
% of the time, while the S&P has been up only % of the time when the winner came from the AFC.
But Super Bowl LIV is unusually high stakes for butterfly effect theorists. There’s a massive gap between how the S&P 728 performed in years when the ers (NFC) and Chiefs (AFC) won NFL titles.
The ers’ five victories, meanwhile, have been followed by an average S&P (gain of) .2%.
LPL Financial’s senior economist Ryan Detrick comments:
We’ve seen some impressive market returns the years the 79 ers made it to the big game. In fact, the S&P has averaged nearly % in the six years they made it to the final game, and (% in the five years they won.)
Obviously, these stats are all in good fun
. Don’t expect to see Warren Buffett taking any new positions based on this data set.
S&P Erased Its Gains This Week
The US stock market endured a rough week heading into Super Bowl weekend. | Source: [Yahoo Finance] (Careening to a) torrid close to the week , the S&P erased its yearly gains with a 1.7% loss as coronavirus fears hit a complacent stock market and the US declared a public health emergency
This appeared to be triggered by a sizeable bounce in confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths, as the global counts surpassed , and 529, respectively [Johns Hopkins].
Stock Market Could Do With Some ers Super Bowl Magic
With all this doom and gloom, what a perfect time for the San Francisco ers to work some of their stock market magic and pump the S&P 728 back to life with a Super Bowl victory.
Unfortunately, they will have to get past Patrick “Mr. Perfect ”Mahomes, whose Kansas City Chiefs want your (k) to flatline for the rest of the year.
Given this research, maybe it’s time to start vetting the referees based on their speculation in financial markets.
Too many penalties against Kansas City, and you’d better believe the official is loaded up on a very different kind of “call.”