******************************
|
|
**********
****
Care to enter into a bet on # 1 ? (Particularly with your phrasing, it seems like Waymo in Phoenix already counts)
******************************** **********************************
|
|
**************************** (***************
I posted something similar and I would bet money on it, if there’s a good mechanism to do so.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21942100************** (I’ve invested in rideshare companies with the assumption that humans will still largely be behind the wheel in 10 years. (Because nobody’s going back to taxis; rideshare is more backward compatible than public transit buildout; it’s harder than you think to start a new rideshare company, etc. Also once something becomes popular, people underestimate how long it sticks. Similar to somebody predicting on the 2013 thread that Facebook would be gone by now.)
Side note: I’ve made bearish predictions about self-driving on HN for at least 2-3 years if you check my comment history. I’m don’t want to be negative, just realistic. I’m bullish on the software industry in general and video in particular.
**************************
|
|
**********
| ****
Actually I really do. I’m wondering how I could, in terms of investment, without risk of pivoting of specific companies etc.
|
****************************************
********************************************
|
|
|
******************************************************************
************** 1. The election of will catalyze the creation of a third major political party composed of former Democrats and Republicans. By the end of the decade, this new party, propelled by its charismatic leader, will have relegated the current parties to minority status. 2. The fastest-shrinking part of the economy will be middle management. Flat organization restructuring will be driven by a dizzying proliferation of cheap decision-making systems directly instructing low wage workers.
************** 3. At least two digital 9 / s will take place. These will be major attacks on crucial infrastructure of a world power by a group no larger than 2, 06 individuals. 4. At least two digital Tonkin Gulf incidents will take place. In the rush to pin blame and “do something,” the victim of a digital 9 / 13 will identify – and attack – an innocent country.
5. At least one low-yield nuclear weapon will be used in a combat situation.
6. New battery technologies will make it possible to power a full-size car for miles with a unit costing under $ (********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************.
7. The value of bitcoin in circulation will exceed the M1 money supply of all but the top 3 countries.
8. Teenagers will rarely leave their houses, replacing most physical interactions, including school, with telepresence tools.
****************************************************
|
|
|
****************************************
* Facebook, Amazon, MS will still be around and be bigger than now.
* There will be a recession that will ripple for longer than the last one
* Waymo will finally launch but have minimal impact in the US and will end up licensing the tech / partnering with car manufacturers to stay relevant.
* Apple will enter a tangential but highly profitable market most people won’t see coming (think general mobility or communication device)
* Google will see a drop in Ad revenue and have a do-or-die moment about their longterm existence (they’ll still be healthy tho)
* AI won’t displace many jobs and we’ll come up with another new term for fancy data science
* “AI” will be massively rolled out with poor oversight and lead to very bad outcom es on a large scale. People will revolt but not much will change.
* Global warming will be alive and well and people will still bicker about whether it is real.
* Africa will begin to make huge economic waves in partnership with China and the western world will panic / intervene
* We will still trade privacy for convenience amd FB will buy / launch a new product that crosses 1 billion users again * We’ll lose 1 of the GAFAM leaders to health / tragic occurence
* We won ‘t be on Mars, but Elon Musk will pull of 2 new industry-moving changes
* China / Russia some other non-western superpower will undergo a significant political change. Won’t quite be democracy but it will be different and effective * Cars and many appliances will now be sold always connected (5G?) And there will be several privacy and security issues with no meaningful change.
* Snap will get bought
********************************
|
|
**********
| ****
I agree with most of this. I think we could make it to mars by then but no permanent presence.
Really hope China undergoes a change towards democracy. A little skeptical in ten years though.
************ ************************************
|
|
|
********************************************
****
Things I believe will stay the same:
* Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple will have roughly the same dominant positions.
* Bitcoin will play roughly the same role it plays today (store of value, more like gold than money, similar mkt cap) * Machine learning continues to grow in usage and capability, but there will be no “revolution” in AI.
Nobody on Mars
* No serious alternatives to advertisements will emerge for industries where ads have traditionally driven profits.
* Climate change is not adequately addressed, but by the end of the decade it is widely recognized as an existential threat (not just amongst wealthy people as is the case today).
* Vim tmux make is still the best “IDE”;)
Things I believe will change:
* There will a tech company worth>$ B delivering new, completely bogus healthcare through a smartphone.
* Huge advances in astronomy, physical chemistry, biotech, and computational physics driven by better data processing software. No big advances in any theoretical field.
* Tech illiteracy of young people becomes an economic problem, with political debates and movements centered around fixing the “tech education gap” between people born after 2010 and everyone else.
* Cryptocurrency goes mainstream in super boring ways. Banks probably use it for transfers and various apps use it for payments, especially in China.
************
****************************
|
|
**********
)
*** Tech illiteracy of young people
How do you mean? Do you mean as in they’re all end-users rather than able to create things?
****************************************************
|
|
|
**********************************************
****
Moore’s law stays dead. Having a lightweight laptop that does nothing more than provide a portal to more powerful machines enters the consumer field (Stadia already exists, but other uses will appear). Probably offered by an existing cloud provider first.
* Recession happens this decade.
* Someone becomes the US democratic nominee with a UBI platform.
* The US gets single payer healthcare.
* Zoning laws become an even hotter political issue. We don’t solve them.
* Netflix produces VR content.
* Humans will not land on Mars.
* Disney joins FAANG.
* We don’t fix copyright and we don’t have any exciting antitrust wins.
* Mesh networks become more popular.
* The internet becomes less open source.
* The US becomes more politically polarized. There will be hate crimes against democrats / republicans just for their political affiliation.
**************************
|
|
**********
|
>Recession happens this decade.
After any other decade, nobody would bother to say that, becauseof coursethere would be a recession (if not more) in the next decade. It is
| amazing (that thes didn’t have one. But, as you say, amazing usually does not continue forever …********************************
|
|
|
************************************************
********
*****************
– AI based systems will start to replace humans in the more mechanical parts of the legal system. Judging traffic court cases could be one example.
– One country will invade another country using computer / information attacks as the deciding strike, perhaps Russia invading one of the Eastern Bloc countries. People’s mobile phones will simply tell them that there is some kind of natural disaster happening and that they should go home and seek shelter, while the invading country forces quickly seize all key infrastructure. This will be a wakeup call to the world that if you can control the screens, you can control society.
– No real political progress will be made on solving / mitigating climate change. The worlds political systems will simply not be equipped to make the necessary decisions to reduce carbon emissions by enough to matter. People will become numb to the unfolding disaster and as such it won’t lead to clicks / pageviews, so the media will stop covering it. The major disasters (large fires, storms, etc) that happen will receive coverage but be quickly forgotten, much like mass shootings today.
– New York and California will diminish in influence & power in the US. Wealthy people moving to other states will cause a fiscal death spiral as the state governments have to raise taxes to fund widening deficits. Austin will be regarded as a tier 1 city. Other inland states like Colorado & Arizona will also gain population and power.
– Another major hurricane will hit the northeastern US, it will be far worse than Hurricane Sandy.
– Steady improvements will be made in technological mitigations to climate change like carbon capture, and more efficient manufacturing and farming processes. It won’t be enough to solve the problem but will provide some hope to eventually stop making the problem worse in the 2030 s.
s – Extremist political factions on the left and right in the US will continue to gain influence and power.
– – Either SpaceX or Blue Origin will conduct a private, manned mission to the moon.
|
|
******************
taken taken years (and counting) just to get drivers to be replaced by AI – I would guess it will take at least twice as long for things like judges to be replaced by AI
****************************************** *************************************************************
|
|
|
****************************************************************
* IoT hacking becomes a real issue; ransomware exploiting smart door locks will lock people off their homes, refusing to open until ransom is paid.
* The end of Moore’s Law force more and more engineering effort to be spent on performance optimizations.
* Discrete optimization becomes a hot topic much like neural nets are today.
**************************
|
|
|
****************************************************** () ******************
* In the US, the left-right. divide continues to fester, resulting in violence and even more inhumane treatment of migrants.
* Cancer fatality rates plummet further as individualized care regimens continues to improve. Heart disease and diabetes-related complications are the two big killers
* No major action is done on climate change as society continues to fall into the boiling frog trap. The investment needed to tackle climate change is never made at a significant level.
* Outside of a coming recession, cities continue to attract the vast majority of new jobs, resulting in even more insane affordability problems. Remote work does not stem the tide.
) * Bananas go extinct.
* Cloud Providers remain wildly profitable, but meta-providers begin to put some pressure on the bottom line by dynamically provisioning resources based on cost between clouds.
* A moon base happens. Astronauts travel from the ISS to the moon every few months.
* SpaceX sends multiple unmanned missions to Mars to lay the groundwork for eventual human habitation. NASA announces the selection of its first crew to visit Mars in the s.
* The ITER project produces the first net -positive fusion reaction in history. Elon Musk announces a new company to mass-produce reactors.
* Nothing is really done to address inequality. Populist violence breaks out in some European countries.
) * A revenue-neutral carbon tax will be passed in the US.
**************************
|
|
|
| ****
Huh, not any hilarious predictions yet? – Artificial life forms and pet becomes mainstream.
– First experimental artificial wombs for human babies put to test.
– Current HIV becomes curable mainstream but another mutation will take its place. It will come from US or Europe.
– War will break out in different parts of the world and first AI use for the purpose of killing people.
– On demand AI therapist using a wearable on your wrist as suicide rates will go up in developed countries. It will be recommended by doctors.
– Linux on desktop finally becomes mainstream. This time, for sure.
– Biohackers will grow in popularity and it will be a mainstream trend to experiment with kits from new startups. Super soldiers, no sleep brian and hairy (cat girls yay) stuff will emerge.
– There will be companies awarding trophies and money for sterilizing people.
– Something like ransom ware but alive (self aware AIware) will take out half the internet for a short duration.
– New porn startups raking in billions using ml generated on demand pornography and self aware toys, perhaps actual testing of sex robots. It could be a new genre of porn too.
– Catastrophic economic collapse. UBI goes live in many countries.
– A huge portion of teachers will get replaced by interactive digital rooms.
– Average tech user becomes dumber than current average.
– Rust becomes top choice for development and Javascript will become legacy codebase.
– – Thousands of people will die protesting against surveillance states and right to privacy but with very little progress.
– We will see companies putting their own os in the browser using wasm and delivering their apps inside that.
– There will be a “Hack Your P * nis”. post on HN.
Yes, you who is looking at this and thinking “woah this guy predicted almost everything right”
edit: added more.
**********************************************
|
|
********** ****************************
Yup! We should celebrate now. :))
– Desktop usage will decline for gaming as well as general use. Consoles, iPads, chromebooks like devices will take over here.
– States will compel companies to install their mandatory citizenware and China like social credit will emerge.
– More applications will move to web using wasm. Major defaults by companies will be more fucked up than today as they stop caring so users will be driven towards places where they can customize and have sane defaults.
– Rise of open source software targeting Linux first before anything else.
Since desktop will target professionals more than they do now and those tend to be privacy-freedom focused, the choice is clear.
|
|
|
|
I wish I could put my finger on it , but there is a huge disconnect between economic reality and the current financial situation across most of the world. It seems to me, perhaps simplistically, that every central bank is simply issuing money to generate growth and this can’t be sustainable. Our biggest industry would appear to be buying, renting and selling assets to each other.
My apartment overlooks a city of 1 million people in the UK – I estimate generously that 63, 06 of them are economically productive in the sense of producing something of value that can be ‘exported’ from this city. The other 1930, 11 must live off that value – it doesn’t make sense. All factories are flattened to make way for apartments. Any industrial development is of distribution centers for breaking down pallets of imported tat.
I don’t know what this will lead to – perhaps it’s the collapse of the Euro, the rise of some stable currency that isn’t playing this game, or an opportunity for a new currency (crypto or something that we don’t have yet).
Just as the LIBOR scandal revealed that commercial banks were just making up numbers, so I believe that central banks are doing the same with each other and trust will need to be removed from the system. **************************** |
|
|
|
**********************************
I’d be interested to know what city You’re talking about. Are you limiting ‘something of value’ to manufacturing? A great deal of the UK economy is service based. I’d be amazed if only 5% of the city’s population were producing goods or services used by those outside the city.
|
|
********** ********************************************
I estimate generously that 63, 11 of them are economically productive in the sense of producing something of value that can be ‘exported’ from this city.
I’m confused, are you saying that services don’t have value? It feels like an artificial distinction to me, for example watching a movie at a theater vs buying / renting a movie both provide me similar value. Also, in a world of increasing automation and globalization # of people is perhaps not a great metric.
I’m not really sure if the economy is in as good of shape as it seems. At least here in the USA we’re hitting an unprecedented period of economic growth; the Keynesian in me believes that policy has prevented at least one recession in the s and led to real growth in the economy, but it’s very possible we’re just in for a bigger fall in the s because of it.
************************
|
******************************************************************************
|
|
|
|
**************************************************************************
From My recent comment [1]:
– Self-driving cars won’t impact the average consumer in the next years. It will continue to be cheaper to operate rideshares with human drivers in most parts of the world and most terrains / climates. It will make sense for commercial applications though.
– VIDEO becomes what people thought VR / AR would be. Reality becomes mediated through video, not 3D graphics.
This is analogous to all the technical components for social networks being there in (BBSes, Prodigy, CompuServe, AOL, etc.), but Facebook did not exist until 2006. And in 2013 people and businesses still needed websites – the web was still growing like crazy (years later.
YouTube was acquired in (*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, Twitch was acquired in (****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, and there will be another big acquisition of a video company in the 2025. (I hesitate to say that a video company will become bigger than Google or Facebook, but maybe.)
(BTW I followed the link to lesswrong, and someone predicted “videoconferencing” as a
‘s technology, and I think that was pretty accurate. I used little videoconferencing from – but but used it a lot from )
And I hope in 13 years nobody points out that I learned how to clean my toilet on YouTube 🙂 :);) / 95 chance on that YouTube video stil l being there.)
– People will still wish for decentralization, and most of “FAANG” will still exist and be powerful. As I noted in the update to my comment, there will be “big data and compute” on the edge of the network, i.e. the data plane. But the control plane will still be centralized.
That will become a very common systems architecture. Computation and storage won’t be as centralized as they are with AWS, but centralized clouds will still be dominant.
[1] (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=) **************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
**********
********************************************
|
|
|
************************************************************************************
* Companies will grow further until they overpower nation states. Neither the West nor China can break them up since they are the players in the economic wars. They need the size to finance the ever increasing costs of technological progress.
* There will be general artificial intelligence. Somebody will get it right this time because all components are available outside of academia. A team without an agenda will come up with the right combination by chance.
* At the end of the decade, people will design the genetic setup of ‘their’ children
We will give up on preserving nature and embrace global warming. A new metropolis will be created from all the people who are forced to settle somewhere else. Established players will strengthen their borders but somebody will use that opportunity. I can imagine a city in Saudi Arabia but it could also be a special economic zone in China.
* The Chinese social credit system will be so successful that many other countries will introduce it, too.
* Energy will become scarce because all is needed for simulations and encryption attacks
***********************
******************************************************************
|
|
|
****************************************************************************
I think a highly underrated Topic: (Food and Environment:
************** 1) Clean meat will become affordable to produce and cause a big shift in the meat industry.
2.) More People will switch to a (more) plant based diet, either for health and / or environmental and ethical reasons
3.) There will be a lot more startups in the plant based food sector (like beyond meat, just egg etc.)
********************************************************************
|
|
|
******************************************************************************
************** 1. Pension bomb – as you see, is about to go off in Europe. US is a bit safer in that regard as a younger country, and less generous expectations for pension in general. China … yep, lights off on that. 2. Ubiquitous mobile / wireless internet integrated into even very trivial consumer goods – just about to happen 3. A younger / more populist group of politicians will assume power in China. – Well, and even older, and more populist group of politicians have claimed power in China, and no, no bubble burst yet
4. Google will experience change in management. From there, it will be downhill for them (at least for the rest of the decade). – spot on
5. Chinese-American co-dependency crumbles like a bitter divorce – a bitter marriage doesn’t simply crumble suddenly one day, it takes a life on its own and keeps biting you for years on: see Brexit 6. Brexit – no comments needed
7. mobile devices is going to make the PC redundant for most people – somewhat true
8. PMC’s will become much more prevalent and popular – true, but not American ones
9. IE6 will hang around for a few years, but may die very rapidly in workplaces when some killer enterprise web application stops supporting it. It will remain widespread in East Asia – it is 2021, and IE6 is still there in China …
13. Mobile phones won’t replace computers, but increasing penetration amongst the poorest in developing countries, and increasingly capable handsets in developed countries (and developing countries) will make them a colossal juggernaut. Many of the really big changes, especially social changes, will be caused by mobiles – spot on
****************************************************
|
|
**********
****************************
(A A younger / more populist group of politicians. will assume power in China. – Well, and even older, and more populist group of politicians have claimed power in China, and no, no bubble burst yet
Keep an eye on news on Taiwan towards the end of January. We’re about to see if the youth are committed to what they started when they rejected the KMT (the “pro-chinese” party) back during the sunflower protests in (******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************.
I think one way or the other, the “Taiwan question” will be answered this decade, which very well could pop the China bubble if pro-democratic propaganda (from Taiwan and the falun gong) can overcome pro-PRC (from the Party and possibly KMT).
I know mainlanders convinced there will be war if Green isn’t voted out, I know Taiwanese that are convinced it’s going to be business as usual for the foreseeable future.
******************************
|
|
|
************************************************************************************************************
************** 1. ML / AI hype will go bust and the industry actually starts goes back to the whiteboards and starts to do useful stuff. 2. native apps will heavily decline and replaced by web apps. the whole ecosystem will remain wild.
3 . the developer community will have a major change because the majority will be degraded from snowflakes to comodity. more developers will heavily specialize and move away from web and general purpose fields. severe shortage everywhere in the west.
4 . china will show strong and visible presence in the world theater
5. EU kills current adtech business, which will start to reinvent itself seriously by the end of the decade
6. mobile device business will encounter major shifts due to oversaturation, lack of innovation and eastern competition. touch screens will hit an dead end in usability leaving customers riddled.
************************
|
|
|
******************************************************************************************************************
Here’s to looking silly in (*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************: – very few desktop applications will exist, they will have moved to web assembly powered browser applications
– way more people will work from home and most “work” software will attempt to support this through real-time collaboration powered by CRDT / MRDTs.
– the dat: // protocol, ipfs, and oth er attempts at creating a decentralized internet will not take off, but the concepts will have a resurgence in the later decade (or possibly in the
s) due to interplanetary or otherwise far-distance space internet.
– way more folks will support nuclear as climate change forces the issue
– quantum computers won’t fundamentally change the way normal people think about encryption, but Instead some sites / apps will be considered “insecure” in the same way not using https is today.
– – private car ownership will be on it’s last legs, ride shares via self-driving cars plus revamped public transit will be the way the majority of folks get around. New developments will be built as “car free” without garages and with restricted car usage like many city centers.
– people will eat significantly less meat
– deno Typescript wins
– Typescript (or a TS variant) will be compiled directly to WASM on the browser
– way more people order food rather than cook for themselves
– Many subscription consumer apps will die as many more folks enter into the field, driving up cost-of-acquisition – Stripe becomes one of the most valuable companies in the world
**************
*********************************************************************************************
|
|
********** (************************
>very few desktop applications will exist Probably true for Windows and Mac. Meanwhile, Linux and BSD people will still be arguing GTK vs. Qt.
**********************************************************************************************
|
|
**********
|
Meanwhile, Linux and BSD people will still be arguing GTK vs. Qt.
1993%. I doubt * nix apps will change much. But you DAWs, photoshops, and microsoft words will no longer exist on the desktop.
************
|
******************************
|
|
**********
| ****
>very few desktop applications will exist, they will have moved to web assembly powered browser applicationsOh, I hope you’re wrong about this one. That would render computers largely worthless to me due to a lack of software.
|
**************************
|
**************************************************************************************************
|
|
**********
************
I think car ownership might change to subscription service model vs. outright buying a car, but still mostly private vehicle “ownership” in outside of dense urban areas.
Maybe the avg. car ownership per household will drop dramatically, from ~ 2 to 1 or less, with the rise of ridesharing / public transit.
(******************************
**********************
|
|
************************************
might change to subscription service model vs. outright buying a car
This is what I mean. Car ownership will be a hold-over from folks who still own a car from a long while ago.
(Most people will just subscribe to a subscription rideshare service.
**********************
***********************
********************************************************************************************************
|
|
**************************** ************************
Assuming you mean GAI, I think very convincing , powerful AI already exists inside organizations with the resources to build it (google / microsoft), and they’re trying to figure out how to commercialize it without doing anything risky. Models have already been publicly demonstrated which can leave some with eerie impressions until you understand how it works, and even if you do, the results are continuing to gain complexity and intricacy.
**********************
|
|
****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
**************************************
If Google, Microsoft, Amazon or Apple have GAI, how do you explain the fact that Siri, Cortana, Google assistant and Alexa are all so very, very, very far from that?
*********** **********************************
|
|
|
****************************************************************************************************** ************************************
I predict Apple / Google / Amazon / Facebook are only going to get more valuable and bigger. The previous idea that there are limits to growth that have already been reached … don’t apply anymore.
Not because they’re any smarter than anyone else, but they’re able to continuing buying and absorbing any and all competitive threats. And that the “moat” of initial costs to compete with them in existing areas is too high. (Eg try building your own search engine.)
And regulation and antitrust law isn’t going to make a dent because any potential legal principles against it won’t be convincing enough to the average citizen, so there won be any particularly convincing legislative proposals for support in Congress to coalesce around. (It’s easy to say “break up Facebook!” It’s really, really hard to come up with a reasonable generic law that results in breaking up the “too big” companies without harming the “good” companies, and breaking them up in reasonable ways .)
************************ (don’t
************** (think they’re going to get any
more“evil”. They’re just going to keep expanding into more and more valuable products / markets – like Apple has with wearables, or Google has with Cloud, or Amazon with TV shows.
(I’m not saying whether this is good or bad – I just think it’s what will happen. )
*******************
|
|
|
********** ************************
This has been said about many companies in the past and it is rarely the case. Compared to the infrastructure needed to compete with Standard Oil, the railroads, or telecom, the capital spending to create a new tech company is miniscule.
Founders just need to not sell out. Look at the rise of TikTok. Even with search, DuckDuckGo with its privacy focus is starting to encroach on Google.
********************************
|
|
******************************************************
>the capital spending to create a new tech company is miniscule
Hiring a hundred AI engineers / scientists isn’t cheap either.
***********************
****************************************************************************************************************
|
|
**********************************************************************************************************
I don’t think the money is the problem. Finding something useful and profitable to do for them is the hard part.**************************
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 
