At least spring springs eternal –
NOAA’s seasonal outlook shows warm temperatures and rain inequality.
The western US, meanwhile, saw low precipitation in many areas, contributing to drought conditions. That includes California, where the snowpack is currently well below average despite a round of good snowfall this week.
Surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean have been stuck in neutral — neither El Niño nor La Niña — for the past year, and that’s not expected to change in the coming months. That means it won’t tilt the weather scales, leaving the US outlook subject to other weather patterns.
This outlook is the product of pretty solid agreement in the long-range model forecasts, as well as expectations based on long- term trends. Low snow cover enables warmer temperatures in early spring, although wet soils in the central US could have the opposite effect. Unfortunately for Oregon, California, and southern Texas, dry soils are helping move the needle toward even more dry weather, as there isn’t much water to evaporate into the air.
Where the soils are wet, that also means the risk for spring flooding is higher. Combined with the outlook for snowmelt and precipitation, NOAA is highlighting flooding risks for about a third of the country, centered on the Mississippi River. There is a possibility of moderate or major flooding — high enough to impact buildings — in several regions including the Dakotas and Minnesota, the southern Missouri River, the upper Mississippi River, and across Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi.
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