Brexit: UK set for December general election as Corbyn lifts Labor opposition to bill – live news – The Guardian, Theguardian.com

Newnight’s Nicholas Watt says it is not yet certain that the December election will go ahead. He explains:

We will find out shortly, because the debate on the program motion is about to start.

Here is the Evening Standard’s take on Labor’s decision to back an early election. The Standard, of course, is edited by the former Tory chancellor George Osborne.

One of the joys of an election is the unexpected event that has the potential to derail campaign planning. The 2019 general election was only confirmed (effectively) about two hours ago, butBoris Johnsonhas already received his first election setback; in a surprise announcement, the Office for Budget Responsibility has announced that it plans to publish revised economic forecasts on 7 November.

Robert Chote, the OBR chair, has revealed thisin an open letter to the Treasury (pdf).

Normally the OBR publishes revised economic forecasts twice a year, accompanying the budget and the spring / autumn statement (the timing of the budget determines which it is). Chote says the OBR started working on new forecasts when the Treasury announced a budget for 6 November. But that budget has been cancelled.

There were suspicions that one reason for the cancellation of the budget was that it would involve the government having to publish OBR figures showing that there was less scope for tax cuts and spending increases after the election than the Tories might like to admit. Chote does not address this point directly. But he says that, since the OBR last published a forecast in March, government borrowing has increased more than expected and there has been a “rapid growth” in public spending. He goes on:

Given the importance of these changes for public understanding of the baseline against which the government will need to judge its fiscal policy options, we believe that it would be useful to explain publicly the impact that they would have had on our March forecast, had they been known at the time.

If any of the parties are planning extravagant promises on tax and spending, the new OBR figures may cast extra doubt on their credibility.

But the OBR analysis is not likely to undermine the arguments in favor of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal.One report (pdf)has argued it would be much worse for the economy than Theresa May’s deal over the long term. But Chote says that the OBR forecasts only cover a five-year horizon, and that the impact of the new deal, compared with the previous one, would be “relatively modest”.

Peter Walker

Downing Street has set out its red lines ahead of the debate on calling a December election. In brief – the government seems open to a 10 or 11 December date, but is dead set against amendments extending the vote to 16 – and 17 – year-olds or EU nationals.

On the date, while the Lib Dem hope for a 9 December poll, Boris Johnson’s spokesman said this would require parliament to dissolve at the start of Friday this week, so as to allow the necessary 25 working days between dissolution and polling.

This would make it “very difficult” for both the election bill and a separate bill on budgets for the suspended Northern Ireland assembly to pass through the Commons and Lords and receive royal assent in time, the spokesman said .

Also, 9 December is a Monday, meaning election preparations would take place of the preceding weekend, which would be logistically difficult and costly, he added.

However, it seems the government could compromise on 10 or (December.

In contrast, there seems no possibility of compromise on adding younger voters or EU nationals, with Johnson’s spokesman saying that longstanding convention dictates that changes to the franchise only happen after extensive consultation. He said:

The election law on the franchise should not be changed days before the calling of a general election. The Electoral Commission warns against changing electoral laws less than six months before an election.

Adding 16 – and 17 – year-olds would be “administratively impossible to deliver in the time available”, he said, warning also that adding EU nationals would bring “administrative chaos”.

The latter point seems less certain given that EU nationals can already vote in local elections, and so many are registered.

But the No 10 spokesman added: “It would also mean EU nationals in the UK enjoying wider voting rights than UK nationals in any other country other than Ireland.”

These are from theLabor (MP) Barry Sheerman.

I’ve asked Labor if it can confirm or deny what Sheerman is saying about resignations, but have not had a reply yet.

Heidi Allen,the former Conservative MP who defected to Change UK and then ended up a Liberal Democrat, has announced that she won’t be standing again in her South Cambridgeshire constituency.

Inan open letter to her constituents,she says she is “exhausted by the invasion into my privacy and the nastiness and intimidation that has become commonplace ”.

Most general elections get described as the most important the country has faced for a generation or so. Here is the academicMatthew Goodwinmaking a case for why this might be true this time around.

Libby Brooks

Former Scottish Conservative leader (Ruth Davidson) has confirmed that she will not take up her new post at an international communications firm while she continues to sit in the Scottish parliament .

Davidson faceda storm of criticismafter the announcement last Thursday that she intended to take up an appointment as a senior adviser to Tulchan Communications – their managing partner is the former Conservative party chair Andrew Feldman, a close ally of David Cameron – before stepping down as an MSP in 2021. It was reported that Davidson would be paid £ 50, 000 for 24 days’ work a year.

In a statement released on Tuesday morning, as the Holyrood parliament returns after its autumn recess, Davidson said:

The debate in Scotland about my taking an advisory role with Tulchan Communications has become increasingly contentious. I, and Tulchan, have therefore agreed not to proceed with the appointment.

She continues to insist that she does not believe the role amounted to a conflict of interest, continuing:

I sat down with Scottish parliamentary officials in advance to go through the code of conduct, in detail, in order to avoid any conflict and to ensure I would be working within the rules at all times. The role reflected this.

The consensus view from political opponents and commentators is that working to improve businesses ’understanding of the cares and concerns of people is somehow incompatible with my role as an MSP. So if I am asked to choose between Holyrood and this role, then I choose the parliament I have dedicated the last nine years to, eight as party leader, a decision Tulchan supports.

Jeremy Corbyn has just delivered a clip for broadcasters confirming Labor’s decision to back an early election and saying the party is “totally determined” to win it. He was surrounded by members of his shadow cabinet, most (but not all) of whom looked happy about the decision.

Repeating the points he made in the statement released earlier (see10. 52 am), Corbyn said the party would not back an early election until a no- deal Brexit had been taken off the table. But following the confirmation from the EU that there will be an extension, the party was now ready to back one, he said.

(This marks a discreet climbdown from Sunday, when the party was saying thata Brexit extension on its own would not be enough to persuade it that no deal had been taken off the table.)

Corbyn saidLaborwould fight its biggest campaign ever. He said:

So we are going to go out there, with the biggest campaign this party has ever mounted – totally united, totally determined – and I’m absolutely looking forward to going to every part of the country with my wonderful shadow cabinet team here and all the fantastic Labor activists to give message of hope where there isn’t one with this government.

He sidestepped a question about whether the party would insist on any conditions before it backed the government bill, implying it wouldn’t, and instead said he could not wait for the campaign to start.

I can’t wait to get out there on the streets. In every town and village in this country, Labor will be there, giving a message of real hope where this government offers nothing.

And when asked if any of his team had doubts about the decision, he replied:

Do you know what, the Labor party loves a debate. But they also love the end of a debate. And this is the end of the debate, and we are going out there to win.

There is one urgent question today.