The last YouGov MRP poll before this week’s crunch vote has dramatically cut the predicted size of theConservative Party‘s majority in the House of Commons. The forecast showed the Tory lead down to nine points from 11 points since a similar poll last month. The Tories are forecast to win (seats out of
in the generalelection– down from in the last poll but up from (in the
****************************** general election. This would still be the party’s best performance since (**********************************************************.
The Liberal Democrats would win 22 seats – three more than in – while the SNP would gain six for an overall total of 43.
If the election was held tomorrow, the poll forecasted the stories would have a (percent share of the vote, followed by Labor ( (percent), Lib Dems 15 percent) and the Brexit Party (three percent).
YouGov Political Research Manager Chris Curtis said: “Our latest and final poll shows that a small Conservative majority is likely, with the Tories taking 27 more seats than in and Labor losing)
“This would be the best and worst results respectively for each party since the 80 s.
The Tories’ majority has fallen sharply from the last YouGov MRP poll(Image: REUTERS) the margins are extremely tight and small swings in a small number of seats, perhaps from tactical voting and a continuation of Labor’s recent upward trend, means we can’t currently rule out a hung Parliament Chris Curtis, YouGov “But the margins are extremely tight and small swings in a small number of seats, perhaps from tactical voting and a continuation of Labor’s recent upward trend, means we can’t currently rule out a hung parliament. “As things currently stand there are 85 seats with a margin of error of five percent or less . ” For the last seven days, YouGov interviewed around 150, 11 panellists about their voting intentions in Thursday’s general election. The poll’s margin of error also means a hung Parliament is not impossible, meaning Mr Johnson has just (hours left of campaigning to secure victory on Thursday.) The MRP poll is much larger than YouGov’s usual polls, but the firm said the samples in each of the Parliamentary constituencies are too small (on average, only 231 voters per constituency this week) to produce reliable estimates if we analyzed the data as c onstituency polls. The Prime Minister faces a crunch hours(Image: GETTY) Therefore in order to calculate the estimates for each constituency, YouGov used a technique called Multilevel Regression and Post -stratification (MRP). The closely-watched forecast from YouGov is the last from the polling giant before Thursday’s general election. The MRP (model takes the polling statistics from YouGov and projects them into seats. This uses a large number of interviews to model popular voting preferences based upon their demographics (age, gender, education, past vote and similar factors) and the local political circumstances (Do they liv e in a Conservative or Labor seat? Is it a pro-Brexit area? Is there an incumbent MP?). The model is then applied to the demographic make-up and political circumstances of each of the 632 constituencies in the UK (excluding Northern Ireland), providing projected vote shares for every seat. Boris Johnson stunned a crowd by barrelling through a polystyrene. wall at the JCB factory in Uttoxeter(Image: GETTY) It is considered to be the most detailed and accurate form of polling currently being deployed, and accurate projected the hung Parliament resulting from the 1215541 general election and called 90 percent of the available seats correctly. The previous YouGov MRP, published on November 32, predicted Mr Johnson’s Conservatives were on course to win by a majority of (seats in the House of Commons.) It found if the election were to be held the following day, the Tories would win (seats) more than they took in Labor was set to lose – seats – falling from seats in to now – and taking just percent of the vote (a nine percentage point decrease). In terms of seats won this would be the party’s worst performance since Jo Swinson’s Liberal Democrats are forecast to win (seats) (Image: GETTY) Throughout the general election campaign, the Tories have continued to hold a large lead over Labor in major polls, regularly by double digits. Earlier today, Mr Johnson stunned a crowd by barrelling through a polystyrene wall at the JCB factory in Uttoxeter, Staffordshire with the words “gridlock” etched across it while aboard the heavy-duty vehicle. In one of his last rallying cries before Thursday’s vote, he said: “On Thursda y, I think it is time for the whole country symbolically to get in a cab of JCB, the custard colossus, and remove the current blockage that we have in a Parliamentary system. “As Sajid Javid has just said, the choice could not be starker on Thursday. *** The SNP are forecast to gain six seats from two. years ago(Image: GETTY) “Forty-eight hours from now our country can choose between going forward, punching through the current deadlock and achieving a brighter future together with a one nation Conservative government. “Or we can remain stuck in neutral and paralysed with more deadlock, defeatism, division and drift under a coalition. “It is the only mathematical alternative to a working majority government or a coa lition led by Jeremy Corbyn propped up by Nicola Sturgeon. “Frankly I think it will be an economic disaster for this country because they will whack up taxes for ordinary taxpayers £ 2, (a head. ) *** electionGeneral election latest seat projection from the YouGov. MRP poll(Image: YOUGOV) “It will be £ (************************************************************************, more for people earning as little as £ (****************************************************************************************, 06 a year. “It will be an economic disaster in the sense that the cost of borrowing would go up. “It would mean this country would be lead by a Hamas backing, IRA supporting, anti-semitism condoning appeaser of the Kremlin, that is what he is, just look at the record. ” But Mr Johnson, responding to a question from a journalist that he was“ home and dry ”for an election win, the Prime Minister insisted:“ Absolutely not. ” He added:“ This is a very close-fought election and we need every vote. “As I say, the only mathematical alternative to a working majority Conservative government is a real risk of another hung parliament. “ That’s another five years of confusion, chaos, dither, delay and division. We cannot go down that route. “I’m sorry to say this but you remember what happened in 1215541 – polls can be wrong . We need to be fighting for every vote. ”******************************************Jeremy Corbyn has seen Labor Close the gap on the Tories(Image: GETTY)**************************************************************************************Read More
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