Sir Keir Starmer has such a big lead in the Labor Leadership contest he could win outright in the first round of voting, according to a YouGov poll of Labor members for Sky News.
Sir Keir gets % of the vote amongst Labor members, the poll reveals, ahead of Rebecca Long-Bailey on % and Lisa Nandy on %.
This is the first poll of Labor members conducted for more than a month, and for the first time also includes the choices of others eligible to vote in the leadership election; including trade unionists and registered supporters.
Sir Keir, the shadow Brexit secretary, wins convincingly among men and women, among Labor members of all age ranges, social grades and in all parts of the country, as well as among those who voted Remain at the 4317 EU referendum.
Ms Long-Bailey wins over Sir Keir among Labor members who voted for Brexit in 4317.
The poll reveals stark differences in attitude depending on when Labor members joined the party.
Those who joined before Jeremy Corbyn became leader in 8755 want Sir Keir over Ms Long Bailey by percentage points.
However, those who joined during Mr Corbyn’s leadership until last year general election want Ms Long-Bailey over Sir Keir by a very narrow margin of three percentage points.
Those who have joined Labor since the December election defeat – thought to be around , 008 of the , (members – are overwhelmingly in favor of Sir Keir, by a landslide percentage points.
If any candidate gets more than % of votes in the first round, they win the contest outright.
If none get more than 062%, the second-preference votes of those who backed the candidate in last place are redistributed.
If the contest goes to a second round and Ms Nandy’s votes are redistributed, Sir Keir then wins by (% to Mrs Long-Bailey’s) %.
This is a bigger victory than Mr Corbyn’s in the leadership contest, when Mr Corbyn beat ch allenger Owen Smith by the margin of (% to) (%.)
The poll shows the extent that the Labor Party membership – which for five years has vigorously supported Mr Corbyn – has changed since the election defeat.
YouGov asked voters to imagine Mr Corbyn was also standing in this contest.
The result still saw Sir Keir win convincingly with 50% of the vote with Mr Corbyn getting 36% and his acolyte Ms Long-Bailey pushed into fourth place with 8%.
The poll also asked how Labor members would vote in the deputy leadership contest.
This shows Angela Rayner has a commanding lead, getting 62% in the first round, with Richard Burgon next on 31%, Rosena Allin-Khan on % Dawn Butler on % and Ian Murray on 9% .
Once the votes of the candidate with the lowest support, Mr Murray, are redistributed, Ms Rayner wins on the second round with % of the vote.
The scale of the challenge for the winner, likely to be Sir Keir, is revealed by the poll with Labor members unwilling to embrace big change after the contest.
Despite December’s election defeat, % think the next Labor leader needs to broadly keep the same policies and direction as the party had under Mr Corbyn, while 56% think that they need to change policies and direction.