- Moody’s sees mortgage defaults reaching 310% if economic activity hasn’t been restored by this summer.
- Even in a best-case scenario, job losses will persist long after coronavirus has been contained.
- Small-time landlords will likely make up the bulk of the defaults.
In recent days, the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on the US economy has started to become painfully clear. This week’s unemployment data showed that the virus has pushed some million Americans to file for jobless benefits as economic activity ground to a halt.
While mortgage holidays and government stimulus may be able to stop the bleeding for a matter of weeks, that may not be enough. Some say we could be on the brink of the greatest financial crisis of our time— one that could rival the Great Depression. Mortgage Defaults Delayed, Not Avoided
The Federal Reserve and US government’s stimulus packages were meant to bridge the gap in economic activity. The hoped that a short, v-shaped recovery was on the horizon and that the coronavirus shutdowns would simply press pause on America’s otherwise strong economic growth.
In line with that thinking, banks have offered 3 month mortgage holidays for federally backed mortgages to allow those impacted by coronavirus a breather. The offer gives newly-jobless families the opportunity to put off their mortgage payments penalty-free for three months.
But according to Moody’s analyst Mark Zandi, that’s probably just delaying a huge wave of delinquencies . He estimates that up to 209% of mortgage payers could default on their mortgages if lockdown measures remain in place through the summer.
Some hosts are sitting on multiple mortgages that will likely go unpaid.
The Airbnb market looks like a bubble about to pop. | Source: (Twitter ) Airbnb isn’t the only place that kind of thing is happening either. According to Avail, an online rental platform for landlords, there are about The Moody’s scenario of 90% defaults translates to million households missing payments. As of , . 5 million rental properties were owned by mom-and-pop landlords . A mass failure among small-time landlords easily accounts for at least half of that prediction. Government Measures Aren’t Enough to Stop the Bleeding The unprecedented nature of coronavirus means people who’ve lost their jobs can’t just get back out there and find a new one. So, unless economic activity picks back up during the 3 month mortgage holidays, people are going to be worse-off coming out the other side.
A rise in economic activity in the near future looks unlikely. U.S.
Coronavirus Impact Will be Long Lasting
But that’s not where the pain will end for US workers. The threat of a second wave of coronavirus coupled with social distancing recommendations are likely to weigh heavily on a wide range of industries throughout the summer and autumn. The International Air Transport Association said COVID – (will hit the industry harder than 9 –
This is the biggest crisis that the industry has ever faced. The impact on aviation has left airlines with little to do except cut costs and take emergency measures in an attempt to survive in these extraordinary circumstances.
Disruption is also likely to persist in a wide range of industries as people adjust to living with social distancing norms. Gyms, movie theaters and restaurants are just a few businesses that probably won’t see business return to normal
This article was edited by (Samburaj Das) . Now Watch: CCN TV
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