Updated 7: (AM;
All of Alabama will run the risk of seeing strong to severe storms on Saturday. The areas in orange have higher probabilities of severe storms as of Wednesday morning. Expect forecast timing and details to change some in the coming days.All of the state has the potential to see severe storms on Saturday, but the highest probabilities as of Wednesday morning remained across the western half of Alabama. That higher-probability area was expanded slightly to the east and the south (to include a bit more of Alabama) in the latest update but otherwise has remained relatively unchanged.
The higher probabilities translate to an enhanced risk for severe weather on Saturday. The National Weather Service in Birmingham and Mobile are both forecasting an enhanced risk of severe weather for their entire forecast areas. Forecasters on Wednesday were using strong language to describe an event that is still several days away:
“As it stands, a significant severe weather event appears likely,” the weather service in Birmingham said in its Wednesday morning forecast discussion. “Forecast severe weather parameters are astounding, especi ally for the winter, and would be really high for the spring, ”the weather service in Huntsville said in its morning forecast discussion. Tornadoes and damaging winds are the main concerns. But there is also a concern about flooding, and not only with this system. A wet pattern could take shape next week that could bring up to 3 additional inches of rain to already swollen creeks and rivers in some parts of the state.
There could be two batches of storms on Saturday. One would be a round of individual storms or super cells that could bring the threat of tornadoes. Confidence is on the lower side on if those are able to develop.
Then more storms could track across the region in the form of a squall line, which brings its own threat for tornadoes and damaging winds. The timing is still uncertain because of differences from computer forecast models. Some bring the worst weather to Alabama starting before dawn on Saturday, while others hold off until later in the morning. The threat for severe weather should end by the late afternoon or evening as a cold front pushes through.
It will move quickly to the southeast. On Thursday an area of high pressure to the east of Alabama will begin pumping warmer and moist air from the Gulf over the state. Rain could begin by Friday, although there are timing difference on when it could start. It will also get warmer, with highs on Friday ranging from the mid – s in the north to thes in the south.
Sunday is expected to be drier for some places but Saturday’s cold front is forecast to stall and begin to move northward as a warm front, which will enhance rain chances for much of the state through the first part of next week.
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