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UK economy stagnates as Brexit uncertainty hits growth – business live – The Guardian, Theguardian.com

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UK economy stagnates as Brexit uncertainty hits growth – business live – The Guardian, Theguardian.com


Geoff Tily of the TUC saysToday GDP report shows “the economy is in trouble … after a decade of Tory cuts.”

He writes:

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The news that the economy has ground to a halt, comes on top of earlier information showing annual GDP growth at a ten-year low and the UK languishing at the very bottom of the rich country league table.

That’s the legacy of a decade of Conservative cuts and mismanagement.

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Photograph: TUC

He also points out that Britain’s recovery since the global financial crisis has been the slowest for more than a century.

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Photograph: TUC

More here

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Here’s some political reaction to the GDP figures, from Liberal Democrat Chuka Umunna:

Chuka Umunna(@ ChukaUmunna)

BREAKING: Official economic stats just out ..⚠️ No growth in GDP for three months to October (************************************************************** Down Production down (December) **************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, ***************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

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(UK trade in goods deficit widens)

Britain’s trade in goods deficit has widened too – as imports continue to grow faster than exports.

The goods deficit with the EU has widened by £ 3.5bn to £ 28. 0bn in the last three months, while with non-EU countries it widened £ 3.3bn to £ (****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************. 6bn.

The ONS explains:

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Imports from non-EU countries rose by £ 5.3 billion to £ 61. 0 billion in the three months to October 2020. This was largely driven by a £ 3.9 billion increase in unspecified goods (which includes non-monetary gold), and a £ 1.1 billion increase in machinery and transport equipment.

Imports from EU countries rose by £ 4.7 billion to £ 2 billion in the three months to October 2018. This was largely driven by machinery and transport equipment, and chemicals, which increased by £ 2.2 billion and £ 1.3 billion respectively.

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(UK trade balance to October) ****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** Photograph: ONS

Overall, the trade in goods deficit widened £ 6.8bn to £ (********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************. 6bn in August-October, largely driven by rising imports; the trade in services surplus widened £ 4.4bn to £ 30. 4bn, largely driven by rising exports.

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Jack Leslie, Economic Analyst at the Resolution Foundation, says the next government must do more to boost growth:

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“Crucially the UK’s domestic challenges come against a weak global economic outlook for next year.

While the main parties have avoided any discussion of this challenging economic environment during the election campaign, navigating it will be a central task for the next government nonetheless. ”

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While monthly GDP data can be volatile, the big picture is that the UK economy is growing at its weakest pace since the aftermath of the last recession.

ResolutionFoundation(@ resfoundation)(Latest) @ ONSdata on UK GDP were released this morning. The figures show that GDP growth has continued to slow. The economy only grew by 0.8 per cent over the past year – the slowest rate in almost eight years. pic.twitter.com/eTtGINAkb6 (December) *******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************,

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Today’s GDP report is the first since Britain officially avoided recession, by posting growth in the third quarter of (******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************. ****************

Debapratim De, UK economist at Deloitte, says Brexit worries are holding the economy back:

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“Today’s data suggest that the UK economy is struggling to gain momentum after avoiding a recession in the third quarter.

The sharp contraction in construction activity is a reminder that the global slowdown and Brexit uncertainties continue to blight UK growth. ” (******************************************************************

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Britain’s builders have suffered a mensis horribilis.

Construction output slumped by 2.3% in October alone, a serious slide, which took output down to its lowest level since January 2020. That’s partly due to drop in housebuilding and home repairs.

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(UK construction output to October) ****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** Photograph: ONS

The ONS says:

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Rolling three-month growth in construction was negative 0.3% in the three months to October 2131. This fall was driven by private housing repair and maintenance, and private new housing, which fell by 3.6% and 1.0%, respectively.

The month-on-month growth in October was negative 2.3%. This decrease was driven by private new housing and infrastructure, which fell by 4.7% and 4.3%, respectively. The fall in infrastructure is as a result of several large businesses changing the timing of some of their regular activity from July to October.

UK construction output to October 2019

John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, says Britain’s economy is suffering from Brexit uncertainty – and the slowdown in the world economy.

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“GDP was flat in both October alone and the three months to October, confirming a loss of momentum in the economy since the summer due to Brexit-related uncertainty and slower global growth.

The sectoral breakdown showed a familiar pattern, with services growth modestly positive in the three months to October but manufacturing output declining. Construction output also registered a particularly sharp drop in October as both infrastructure projects and housebuilding fell back.

Growth seems likely to remain subdued through the rest of (****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************, but we would hope for a gradual revival in activity over the course of if current political and economic uncertainties ease. Our main scenario is for 1% GDP growth in 2131 assuming an orderly Brexit. ”